Critical Issues Forum:

Benchmark 2, objectives 1, 2 and 3

Richard Montgomery HS, Rockville, MD

Jean Goldwyn (grade 11),

Leah Greenberg (grade 11)

and

Deborah Wilchek

(English Resource Teacher/Department Chairperson)

Benchmark 2, objective 1

Determine who has weapons of mass destruction and what types they have.

Countries Possessing Weapons of Mass Destruction

Countries	Nuclear Weapons	Chemical Weapons	Biological Weapons
Afghanistan		*
Bulgaria			*
Chile		*
China	*	*	*
Cuba			*
Ethiopia		*
Egypt		*	*
France	*	*
India	*	*	*
Indonesia		*
Iran		*	*
Iraq		*	*
Israel	*	*	*
Laos		*	*
Libya		*	*
Myanmar		*
North Korea		*	*
Pakistan	*	*	*
Romania			*
Russia	*	*	*
South Africa		*	*
South Korea		*	*
Syria		*	*
Taiwan		*	*
Vietnam		*	*
United Kingdom	*	*	*
United States	*	*	*

“FASIntelligenceResourceProgram.” http://www.fas.org/irp/threat/wmd_state.htm.

Benchmark 2, objective 2 and 3

Determine why your chosen region or countries obtained WMD and describe the regional and global impact these WMD have now or may have in the future.

Describe the regional and global impact these WMD have now or may have in the future.

region: Mid-East - EGYPT, SYRIA, ISRAEL

In the scenario which follows, we have imagined a series of “mock” interviews with “informed” citizens of Egypt, Israel, and Syria in which each citizen answers questions related to objective 2 of Benchmark 2. While the citizen is a construct, the information that the citizen presents is based on research (see bibliography at the conclusion of the “interviews”).

EGYPT

Interviewer: Could you please, for the record, clarify what Weapons of Mass Destruction (WMD) Egypt now possesses?

EGYPTIAN Citizen (EC): While we have no nuclear weapons program, we have engaged in some scientific research, beginning in the early 1960s. Egypt signed the CTBT in 1996. In the early ’60s we used mustard gas in Yemen and in the early ’70s supplied Syria with some chemical weapons. In the ’80s we supplied Iraq with chemical weapons and technology and we have a stockpile of mustard and nerve agents. We may have a biological weapons program but if so, it is not extensive. Egypt has signed the BTWC (although we have yet to ratify this agreement).

(“’CNS - Egypt -Weapons of Mass Destruction in the Middle East.”http://cns.miis.edu/rsearch/wmdme/egypt.htm.)

Interviewer: Do you have any additional weapons in your arsenal?

EC: Yes, we possess ballistic missiles, cruise missiles, other delivery systems, and unmanned aerial vehicles. We have been working to develop and produce the Scud B and C and a two stage Vector short-range ballistic missile. We have purchased many of the components and equipment for our ballistic missile program from North Korea and China.

(“’CNS - Egypt -Weapons of Mass Destruction in the Middle East.”http://cns.miis.edu/rsearch/wmdme/egypt.htm.)

Interviewer: To summarize, then, Egypt has conducted research in nuclear weapons, is perhaps developing biological weapons, and has deployed and stockpiled chemical weapons?

EC: Yes, that is correct.

Interviewer: What is the position of the Egyptian government about WMD?

EC: As early as 1999, President Hosni Mubarak has renounced nuclear weapons and has urged Israel to discontinue its own nuclear weapons program. Although Egypt signed a peace treaty in 1979 with Israel, there is still mistrust between our two countries. Our President has asked, “Why do Israelis talk about Egypt’s military power and do not talk about the development of their [own] defense?”

(“NTI:Country Overviews: Egypt (chemical).” http://www.nti.org/e_research/el_egypt_cwabstracts.html.)

Interviewer: Has President Mubarak made any other comments about WMD?

EC: Yes, at a press conference in October of 2002, Mubarak reiterated his desire to free the Middle East from WMD. He stated, “If we’re looking for weapons of mass destruction in Iraq, then we should as well look for them in Israel because they also threaten the region and there must be justice in this respect.”

Mubarak also claimed that “[Egypt] is against the existence of any weapons of mass destruction in the region.”

(“Press Conference 16-10-2002.” http://www.presidency.gov.eg/html/16-October2002_press.html.)

Interviewer: Has Mubarak made any other recommendations about the problems of WMD?

EC: Yes, Mubarak has suggested that an international conference on terrorism should be convened in order to prevent future problems. Mubarak has made it clear that Egypt is a peace advocate and we do not support war or the proliferation of WMD.

(“Press Conference 16-10-2002.” http://www.presidency.gov.eg/html/16-October2002_press.html.)

Interviewer: Has Egypt used other international forums to clarify its position against WMD?

EC: Yes, Egypt’s representative to the UN Moneir Zahran has repeatedly confirmed the Egyptian position about WMD. As early as 1998, we gave our support to a treaty to ban the production of fissionable materials as a beginning of dismantling global WMD.

(“1998 Egypt Special Weapons News.” http://www.fas.org/news/egypt/index98.html.)

Interviewer: Given recent world events between the US and Iraq, has your country reacted in any way?

EC: Yes, recently Egypt’s Al-Azhar University, home of the Islamic Research Academy, announced a jihad to defend Iraq should the US attack. The statement clarified that “jihad against the crusader forces will be the individual obligation of each Muslim...the Arab and Muslim community will face a new crusade that targets its land, honor, creed, and homeland.” However, spokesmen from the University suggested that “the meaning of jihad means a lot of things, not just fighting.”

(“RFE/FL Iraq Report.” http://www.rferl.org/iraq-report/index.html.)

Interviewer: Can you reconcile the statements of your leaders with your earlier admission that Egypt’s WMD program?

EC: Perhaps. Egypt certainly does not have nuclear weapons and our use of chemical weapons has been discontinued. Our country and our leaders have taken a strong stand about WMD. We believe in disarmament. Other countries must also stand with us. The Middle East will be free from all weapons of mass destruction when other countries in the region realize that our position is the only sane position.

SYRIA

Interviewer: Can you clarify what weapons of mass destruction your country, Syria, possesses?

Syrian Citizen (SC): Syria is recognized as having the largest supply of chemical weapons in the Middle Eastern area. We possess sarin gas and some intelligence sources have suggested that we have VX and mustard gas. We are currently in the process of researching biological weapons. Sources disagree as to the advancement of our research; some Israeli reports have claimed that we have botulin, ricin, and anthrax, while other reports suggest that we are researching these weapons but have no production capability yet. We have a small nuclear reactor which could not be used in the production of weapons. We have attempted to obtain nuclear reactors from several countries and we are currently working with Russia on a nuclear research project in Syria.

Interviewer: What weapons of mass destruction has Syria used in combat?

SC: My country used cruise missiles in the 1973 October War. Our late President Hafez al-Assad also used cyanide gas in quelling a rebellion in Hama in 1982.

Interviewer: Do you possess any additional weapons?

SC: Yes. We have manufactured our own Scud B missiles, which have a short range but are fairly accurate, and purchased from North Korea Scud C missiles, which have a longer range but are not as precise. These missiles could be tipped with warheads containing chemical weapons. We have a number of types of cruise missiles, along with field artillery, rocket-launchers, and aircraft.

Interviewer: What treaties has your country signed in regard to weapons of mass destruction?

SC: We have signed the NPT, the Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons. Unlike Israel, we have ratified the Geneva Protocol, and we have also signed, if not ratified, the 1972 Biological and Toxin Weapons Convention.

Interviewer: What is the position of your government on these weapons?

SC: The government has made statements in international forums suggesting that our country would be amenable to reductions in weapons of mass destruction in the Middle East. However, as the situation rests, our government is basically compelled to develop weapons of mass destruction in order to counter our neighbor Israel’s massive supply of weapons of mass destruction, including nuclear weapons. Syria’s development of chemical and biological weapons is motivated primarily by its desire maintain a balance of strategic power between Israel and itself. Our conventional military losses in previous confrontations, such as the 1967 Six Day War, the 1973 Ramadan War, and the 1982 involvement in Lebanon, have only demonstrated the necessity of having weapons of mass destruction for our own defense. In fact, our country only began to seriously embark upon the research and development of chemical weapons following the 1982 conflict in Lebanon. We have developed warheads tipped with chemical weapons to be used on our Scud missiles, with the capacity to hit major civilian and military targets in Israel. We feel that this in part balances Israel’s possession of nuclear weapons. We also feel that our possession of chemical or biological weapons help us to maintain a preeminent status among other Arab nations around us, particularly Iraq and Turkey, whom we have had previous conflicts with. In short, our efforts to produce ‘weapons of mass destruction’ are crucial to our ability to maintain a strategic balance with Israel and our status among the Arab nations of the Middle East.

Interviewer: What future impact does your nation foresee your weapons of mass destruction having on the Middle East?

SC: By helping us maintain a sort of strategic parity with Israel, we feel that our weapons maintain a balance between our two countries. However, it is possible that future events such as an attack by Iraq on Israel and a subsequent retaliation by Israel might force us to use our weapons of mass destruction. It is also possible that Israeli-Arab or Israeli-Syrian relations might destabilize, perhaps as a result of debates over future possession of the Golan Heights, and that weapons of mass destruction might be used in an escalated conflict.

ISRAEL

Interviewer: What WMD does Israel possess?

Israeli Citizen (IC): That’s an interesting question, because Israel does not officially posses nuclear weapons. Unofficially, so this off the record, we have 100-200 weapons. We may own thermonuclear weapons. We have produced chemical weapons, but have not deployed them on ballistic missiles. Also, we posses the capability to produce mustard and nerve agents. As for biological weapons, we have researched the area and have the capability for production, but have not actually produced any. (CNS)

Interviewer: What other weapons does Israel posses?

IC: We have around 50 Jericho-2 missiles and around 50 Jericho-1 missiles. The Jericho-2s have a 1,500 kilometer range, as opposed to the Jericho-1s 500 kilometer range. Nuclear warheads may be stored closely to the Jericho-2s. We have MGM-52 Lance missiles, a Shavit launch space vehicle, and we are developing upgrades on all of there ballistic missile programs. In terms of criuse missiles, we posses a harpy lethal unmanned aerial vehicle (UAV), a Dehilah/STAR-1 UAV, a Gabriel-4 anti-ship cruise missile, and a harpoon anti-ship missile. We have many fighter and ground-attack aircafts, as well as ground systems with artillery and rocket launchers. (CNS)

Interviewer: Which, if any, international treaties has Israel signed concerning WMD?

IC: We have signed the Chemical Weapons Convention in January 1993 and the Comprehensive Test Ban Treaty in September 1996, but both treaties have yet to be ratified. We have not signed the Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons, and we were not a participant in the Biological and Toxin Weapons Conference. (CNS)

Interviewer: Why does Israel possess WMD?

IC: The underlying doctrine of Israel’s military strategy is survival. We therefore aim to deter as many threats as possible, in order to keep our citizens safe. Therefore a nuclear arsenal, even if never deployed, is an effective defense because it can deter other countries from attacking. No other country in the Middle East has nuclear weapons, which gives us quite a tactical advantage. Our policy is known as “nuclear opacity.” By our nuclear weapons being unofficial, we do not reap the political consequences of having a nuclear weapons program, but we have the military advantage in the Middle East. Furthermore, it forces other countries into negotiations. If another country has a conflict with us, they will not attack us because of our nuclear power, and thus war will be prevented. We has weapons of mass destruction because they are a strong deterrent to prevent attack, as well as allowing for what is known as the “Sampson Option,” which would be a complete and last-resort attack to prevent major civilian deaths. Seeing as we do not really posses biological or chemical weapons, they are, of course, not part of our defense program. But it is important to remember that as former Israeli Prime Minister Shimon Peres stated that Israel "built a nuclear option not in order to have a Hiroshima but an Oslo." (FAS, BAS)

Interviewer: How would Israel respond to an attack from another Middle Eastern Country?

IC: Israel would respond using traditional military forces as the first defense, and thus not punish civilians for their leaders’ actions. Depending on the nature of the attack, we would either respond with ground forces or bombing. Nuclear weapons would only be used as a last resort, but we are not afraid to use them if the survival of Israel is at stake. Hopefully, our nuclear capability would prevent any such attack from occurring, and international problems would be worked out at the negotiating table. While our nuclear opacity could encourage an arms race, we will take the necessary steps to prevent that in the Middle East. (CNS, FAS)

Bibliography

“1998 Egypt Special Weapons News.” http://www.fas.org/news/egypt/index98.html.

Cohen, Avner. “And Then There Was One.” The Bulletin of Atomic Scientists (BAS), 1998. http://www.bullatomsci.org/issues/1998/so98/so98cohen.html

Cordesman, Anthony. “Syria and Weapons of Mass Destruction”.

http://www.csis.org/stratassessment/reports/syriaWMD.pdf

“CNS - Egypt -Weapons of Mass Destruction in the Middle East.”http://cns.miis.edu/rsearch/wmdme/egypt.htm.

(CNS). http://cns.miis.edu/research/wmdme/israel.htm#2

Center for Nonproliferation Studies.

http://cns.miis.edu/research/wmdme/syria.htm

“FASIntelligenceResourceProgram.” http://www.fas.org/irp/threat/wmd_state.htm.

Friedman, Thomas. From Beirut to Jerusalem. Random House, New York. 1989, 1990, 1995.

“Israel’s Nuclear Posture Review.” The Monterrey Institute for International Studies Center for Nonproliferation Studies (CNS). http://cns.miis.edu/research/wmdme/israelnc.htm.

“Israel’s Strategic Doctrine.” The Federation of American Scientists (FAS), 2000. http://www.fas.org/nuke/guide/israel/doctrine/index.html

“Israel’s Weapons of Mass Destruction Capabilities and Programs.” The Monterrey Institute for International Studies Center for Nonproliferation Studies

Nuclear Threat Initiative NTI Country Overviews: Syria

http://www.nti.org/e_research/e1_syria_1.html

“NTI:Country Overviews: Egypt (chemical).”http://www.nti.org/e_research/el_egypt_cwabstracts.html.

“Press Conference 16-10-2002.” http://www.presidency.gov.eg/html/16-October2002_press.html.

“RFE/FL Iraq Report.” http://www.rferl.org/iraq-report/index.html.