Lesnoy
School №76
ÒNuclear Weapons
and Non-ProliferationÓ
Lesnoy, school №76, 10 ÒBÓ grade
Teacher: Valieva Rezeda
Lesnoy, school №76
What will happen in future? What way will the mankind choose? Making predictions is a very ungrateful work. Sometimes, notwithstanding all facts the situation turns an unexpected way. WeÕve tried to imagine different results of political relations, decisions, cooperation and confrontation of people in the world. WeÕve created four articles for four different situations; they are just our imaginaries, based on our investigations and our point of view. These articles are presented as chapters of a future history textbook. First article ÒNon-proliferation TriumphÓ is devoted to the great achievement of non-proliferation policy. Second article ÒThe Greatest Mistake of MankindÓ is about the destructive nuclear war. The last article ÒEternal ConfrontationÓ is about deterrence factor of nuclear weapons. WeÕve tried to imagine future organizations, treaties and war conflicts.
WeÕve presented two different results of nuclear proliferation (negative and positive), but we couldnÕt find something negative about non-proliferation. The world today is not based on total non-proliferation, thatÕs why nuclear conflicts are possible. When all nuclear and possible nuclear states admit non-proliferation policy, war will be able to be provoked, but the reason will not bound with non-proliferation regime. Terrorist acts or new World War doesnÕt depend on non-proliferation, but they can be reasons for nuclear conflicts. Even non-proliferation regime is not always able to prevent war.
Non-proliferation Triumph
After the series of treaties have been signed USA and Russian Federation stopped their development of nuclear weapons. The leaders of two countries decided to disassemble nuclear devices and deliver different parts of weapons to specially built facilities, which was far away from each other. Presidents believed that their solution would keep the world safe for ages. And they were right. After five years the Treaty of Total Nuclear Disarmament (TND) was ratified and came into force. The initiators of signing the treaty were USA, Russia, Great Britain and France and China. IAEA administration attracted India and Pakistan to sign treaty. The TND became the object of many discussions, many states were discontented with treaty articles, thatÕs why UN and IAEA decided to improve and expand the treaty. Some new articles were added, and a new organization was established. World fuel and energy crisis didnÕt allow to refuse atomic energy using, but uncontrolled production of nuclear energy and building of new plants didnÕt guarantee that nuclear weapons wouldnÕt be produced. IAEA established International Atomic Energy Corporation (IAEC). The main duty of IAEC was to build and operate atomic plants; scientists from all state party could take part in that activity, which was transparent for UN and other organizations. Only the cooperation of different nations made some states to sign the TND. Iran and North Korea also signed the treaty, but before that UN Security Council forced Iran and North Korea to stop using their own energy. Russia, South Korea and Japan agreed to provide North Korea with energy. Iran was provided by Russian and Indian energy. The TND and IAEC made world nations cooperate, even if their relations were not ideal.
Few years later scientists began testing new energy plants based on new technologies. After years of researches opportunity to use Sun, geothermal and other types of energy appeared; new technologies were imperfect but leaders of world nations paid money for developing safe energy. Advantages of those technologies were evident.
Many years were needed to develop new types of
obtaining energy, but finally, nuclear weapons became too extensive, dangerous
and ineffective. New types of WMD appeared. But the existence of world and
mankind today is possible due to the fact that many
people in past made everything to stop nuclear weapons proliferation.
The Greatest Mistake of Mankind
Great pressure on Iran and North Korea seemed to be too tough and limitless. All this events made people discuss them. When the threat of USA-Iran war became real, many nations started think if it was right to forbid developing of nuclear energy in Iran. Governments of many states understood that, first or last, energy crisis would approach and theyÕve got to be ready. It was the beginning of creation of new coalition. Leaders of some states were afraid that when they try to create all infrastructures needed to develop nuclear energy, the international pressure on them would be very hard. ThatÕs why leaders of Òthe new coalitionÓ (journalists gave them such a name) decided to help Iran and North Korea in their opposition to USA and its allies. But leaders of that coalition didnÕt want even to think about nuclear weapons, they were completely worried about another problem. Many disputes appeared when activity of Òthe new coalitionÓ became discovered; the participants of coalition were some leaders of Eastern Europe, Middle East, North Africa and South America. The military force of coalition was significant. The growing conflict was cut when UN administration together with IAEA invited coalition and ÒoppositeÓ leaders to negotiations.
France, Germany, The United Kingdom and The United States have prepared a report about danger of nuclear weapons. China and Russia supported that report and official position of France, Germany, UK and USA; but they tried to keep neutrality. As existence of Òthe new coalitionÓ wasnÕt fixed by documents, its leaders tried to use it: ÒWe only express our opinion and we want to call for fairnessÓ (an essence from official position of coalition). Ideas of coalition were right and ÒfightersÓ for non-proliferation agreed with it, but they were worried about world safety, because coalition ignored danger of free spreading of nuclear technologies. Soon the number of France, Germany, UK, USA, China and Russia allies began critically decrease.
Five recognized by NPT nuclear states couldnÕt withstand coalition, though some states remained faithful to non-proliferation. Finally new treaties, agreements and organizations ÒdestroyedÓ non-proliferation principles. Activity of such organizations was unstable; many discords appeared in that period. Mankind made its greatest mistakeÉ
The first nuclear strike was aimed to USA. Few minutesÕ later about 20 new nuclear explosions were confirmed. It was hard to understand who attacked whom. Two days later nuclear war ended. Deaths of most of the world leaders, of billion of people, destruction of all cities are results of the Nuclear War. Mankind had to begin building new society.
It was impossible to restore nature. Length of human live became shorter. After the end of war providing mankind with food, clear water, medication was just a dream. Of course, people built new cities, new infrastructure but it couldnÕt help to increase number of surviving people. Every day thousands of people died, everyone was sick, only one of hundred children survived. People sought for undamaged territories. Nuclear strikes were aimed to continents, but not to ocean and isles, so finally people found new place for living.
Eternal Confrontation
The situation described in
this article shows what can happen if arsenals of nuclear states are equal, and
itÕs not so dangerous as it could be. The real threat of nuclear war can appear
when superiority of one of the nuclear states become existing. Neither
non-proliferation, nor any other efforts will exclude possibility of war.
Though in that situation nuclear weapon can be used as a blackmail tool.
Hegemony of one of the nuclear states can define the world leader and
subordinate whole world to that leader. But the biggest arsenals of USA and
Russia are not very different now, thatÕs why the leadership of one of them is
unlikely in near future.
Anti-Iran activities made nuclear weapons topic the most discussed. Even people who didnÕt know well, what is nuclear weapons, what is the definition of military and diplomatic options, were trying to express their opinion and say some ÒsmartÓ words. The most talented politics of those days were thinking about ways of prevention of any expression of mass discontent. The danger of uprising was high. Many people tried to defend Iran and North Korea position, but they even didnÕt know the meaning of non-proliferation. Governments of many countries made big mistake – they did nothing to inform people about very important things, which could change peopleÕ opinion. The basic knowledge of non-proliferation could be very useful for any person at least because of urgency of nuclear non/proliferation.
It was too late to change something. Huge number of mass-meetings made UN and leaders of world nations change the NPT greatly. The next step was changing other treaties. New NPT disagreed with its name. 15 years later NPT merely disappeared.
Since the termination of NPT world changed a lot. First of all, leaders of nation even didnÕt try to hide all their feelings about other countries. Verbal ÒwarÓ became an ordinary event. Sanctions, ultimatums, provocations and ignoring are the words describing world those days. Production of nuclear weapons developed intensive. But no one dared to use nuclear weapons. There were military conflicts in the world, but fear made people be careful.
But some people decided to keep world at peace. Several students established a new organization ÒNuclear Weapons FreeÓ (NWF). That organization existed for 200 years. Its history is very great. For a long time participants of NWF tried to take places in governments. They always organized different actions, strikes. They wanted whole world to listen to them. Since 156 years from NWF establishing they won. Thanks for their activity they reached their main goal. 11 leaders of nations were NWF members. Spreading NWF ideas became very popular among young and old people, mankind began to pull out itself from the big pit. Finally in hardly saved UN a new project was started – NPT II. NPT I was the main instruction of making NPT II. The dream of NWF establishers was fulfilled.
In spite of absence of non-proliferation principles for many years the mankind was saved. Deterrence factor of nuclear weapons was the reason of keeping world at peace.
WeÕve tried to consider different situations. We want to believe that non-proliferation triumph will happen someday. But, to be honest, the way described in the last article is likely to be. Everything depends on us. But we are different. Different cultures, different ideologies, different principles. If mankind manages to find something common and suitable for all nations, the perfect results will be achieved. Misunderstood is the reason of many problems. Only mutual concessions will help society to save NPT, to create new treaties and open new prospects. However, we must defend our dignity, and diplomacy is not the only way of solving problem. ItÕs senselessly to organize negotiations with terrorists or obviously unfriendly and aggressive world leaders (not nations). The most important thing is to use wisdom in any conflicts. World safety depends on our leadersÕ wisdom.