Benchmark III.

Student Teacher

Natalia Mironenko Yelena Chelakova

10 “B” grade

In Benchmark III we’ve tried to determine the kinds of nuclear weapons proliferation events and issues that will occur in the regions of the world that we have studied.

Lots of people think about the future in the light of nuclear weapons proliferation events. Some of them try to share their thoughts and ideas with others. They write books, paint pictures or shoot films.

"The Postman," which was filmed in remote locations of Washington, Oregon, and Arizona, is set in the nearest future after a war has devastated America. It tells the story of a stranger (Costner), dressed in a postal uniform, who wanders into an isolated town claiming to be The Postman. Although he is inventing a personal history simply to get a meal and shelter, the people, desperate to believe that life and comfort exist beyond the next hill, embrace The Postman. The mail he carries becomes a symbol of hope, inspiring the people to fight back against the army that has conquered them. Now the masquerading Postman must decide whether to admit his deception and move on, or fight for the fledgling society he has inadvertently created.

Kevin Costner stars as a reluctant leader called The Postman who inspires a patriotic rebellion in the 21st-century America recovering from the ravages of a terrible war. By reestablishing the lines of communication, this lone man becomes a hero of a leaderless group of citizens and inspires a group of spirited youths to rebel against their abusive dictatorship. Together, The Postman and his rebels forge a new society amid the physical beauty of the American West.

Will Patton stars as the despotic General Bethlehem; Larenz Tate is Ford, who becomes an ally of The Postman's, and Olivia Williams is Abby, a strong-willed and independent young woman. James Russo plays Idaho, Bethlehem's right-hand man, and rock artist Tom Petty makes a special appearance as the Bridge City Mayor.

The Webcast takes place in a sparsely populated area of the American West, far from the nearest small town. The rolling hills and craggy mountains provide a dramatic backdrop to the scene. The sequence comes at the culmination of the film, during a large gun battle in a small rural hamlet.

Now let’s take a look at the subject of the film. The film shows the possible future after a terrible, savage war.

The technical progress falls into oblivion: the humanity returned to the manual labour, stopped using complex machines, scientific achievements. Everything invented during the last few centuries is ruined and forgotten.

The main stress falls on the manual labour. Sewing-machines, hand fabrics painting, ordinary adjustments for chopping are used. The only reminder of the past science is weapon, kept since the war times.

Not lesser recession is observed in the political sphere. Democracy is replaced by monarchical, feudal power, as in the Middle Ages. And as in the Middle Ages the ruler gathers tributes from the appurtenant acres, levies men and chastises the contumacious, having left behind the constitution and other democratic documents.

The commonwealth has lost its integrity. There are only isolated regions that do not communicate with each other. The west doesn’t know what is going on in the east. Every city has turned into a fortress, and the aim of each is to protect and defend itself, to survive in horrible conditions.

Great changes have taken place in the social life. One’s physical qualities mean much more than mental. One who can stand up for himself is held in respect and honour. All achievements of the world culture (literature, painting, architecture, sculpture etc.) are lost.

The way to solve the problems was found in the film. A powerful and potent leader (The Postman) unites and joins separate communities around himself, and all together they defeat the dictator (General Bethlehem) and revive lost knowledge, raise new cities.

What could lead to the events taking place in the film?

As it comes out of the facts revealed in the film it was the nuclear warfare that happened: a three-year-long winter, 16 years of drought after it, terrible epidemic (evidently caused by radiation poisoning), thousands of deaths, desolate landscapes, unproductive, childless men and women.

The recession of technical possibilities, just as the loss of the cultural heritage, can be easily explained: all large technical enterprises, big cities – centers of the progress and manufacture, culture and science – were destroyed by the war, and all traces of the past with them.

The destruction of cities explains other problems, too. The government with an extensive infrastructure that cannot be removed instantly (that’s why public structure is one of the most vulnerable ones, although single public agents can be saved) was situated in them. People found themselves all alone, unprotected and incapable of looking into the situation after the abolishment of the government.

With the death of cities public health service was ruined and only healthy and strong, capable to struggle against terrible conditions survived.

Considering the social life aspect… How could an ordinary human, printer salesman, become a tyrant, almighty ruler of people who were free, who lived in democracy?

He played on their emotions, on their fear. He made them believe in his power, in his necessity, in necessity to obey him. It allowed him to gather under his control a small group of people, then a bigger one, and so on. The main fact was that the authority was won with the assistance of the people, and it was their opinion and decision that played the conclusive part in recognition the leadership of the tyrant.

The fabulosity of The Postman’s personality let him join isolated cities and lead them against the oppressor, but the base value was trust and respect, faith in the victory and radiant future, but on no account fear for their lives.

According to the film, in human realization the good always defeats the evil, and the commonwealth based on understanding and mutual aid is much more reliable and safe than one based on cruelty and power as key factors of the government.

I think it is possible to make a sequel of the film “The Postman”, in which people will start looking for residuary cities and states, reestablishing lost unions. It can also be a description of the country raising from ruins: recovery of forgotten knowledge, rebirth of culture, formation of new States. All these things were only fluently mentioned in the initial film, the main subject of which was the struggle for independence.

If I could write the sequel for this film, I would necessarily include in it such points as:

· search for destroyed cities

· marauding of the cities: removal of residuary ammunition, medical supplies, extant engineering

· gradual realization of the lack of something else, the need of education, books and paintings, music – the fragments of destroyed culture

· return to the cities for those fragments

· perception of the lack of the everyday-life items and resources taken from the destroyed cities

· recognition of the necessity of the raising lost production swatches and passing to machine production because of the populations increasing and resources’ depletion

· return to the cities for gaining scientific knowledge, examination of defective machines for understanding their structure and principle of operation (I think that a particular attention should be paid to this: for example, the comprehension of functioning of the assembly line may occupy a special fragment) for following reconstruction

· the new enterprises start (of course, first success and misfortune, first production)

· consecutive rebirth of science and culture, appearance of new architectural and fine arts patterns

I think it is necessary to emphasize that the way from ruins back to the civilization is extremely hard and requires excessive human and material costs.

I can see a wonderful conclusion for the sequel: the humanity, having overcome all the difficulties and hardships of the returning back to normal (as we understand it now) life wants to make this life as peaceful as possible. So people sign a proclamation that forbids all types of weapon, especially nuclear weapons. The weapon that is left is placed in museums, as a reminder of hard times. A new holiday is set up – The Victory Day, the day when the dictator was thrown down.

The new generation is raised in love, care, understanding… They know that keeping world in peace is a big deal; they all contribute their mite in it.

Sounds like an Utopia, huh? But it is only a movie. Anyway, the main point of the sequel will be the following: the only thing that keeps people away from starting new wars is the experience they’ve gained, not documents or reasons.

Now, having taken the film as a basis, let’s examine the question of nuclear expansion in depth.

I have investigated the situation of the nuclear weapons use.

The influence caused by the radioactive materials and nuclear weapons to the environment:

- environmental radioactive contamination (which includes infection of flora and fauna)

- the call of natural cataclysms (such as earthquake, convulsion of nature, acid rain, tidal wave etc.)

- climate changes

- global destructions

- the raise of quantity of oncological diseases among people

- decrease of life interval

- poor inheritance

I think we should take a closer look at the problem.

Nuclear explosion can instantly destroy or deactivate unprotected people, openly arranged machines, buildings and material resources. The main striking factors of nuclear explosion are:

· air-blast, which is the main striking factor. It represents an area of a strong air compression extensively diffusive from the centre of detonation with a great speed. For the first 2 seconds it passes about 1000 meters, for 5 seconds - 2000 meters, for 8 seconds – about 3000 meters. Damaging action of air-blast defines by the pressure and the rate of air movement; fragments of glass, carcasses of destroyed buildings, fallen, uprooted trees, clods, stones and other objects can be carried with the air-blast. The greatest indirect affections caused by the air-blast occur in the wood. Air-blast is able to hurt even in closed buildings: it gets in through fissures and openings. Damage caused by air-blast can be subdivided into light, medium, heavy and extremely heavy. Light damage can be characterized by injury of organ of hearing, general shell-shock, contusions and dislocations of extremities. Heavy damage can be characterized by a strong shall-shock of the whole organism; injuries of cerebrum, organs of abdominal cavity, strong bleedings from nose and ears, fractures and dislocations of extremities can be observed. Air-blast in the ground appears during the underground detonations, in the water during the underwater ones. Plus a part of energy is spent on creation of the air-blast in the air. Air-blast extending in the ground leads to damaging the underground structures, sewer and water pipes; one, extending in the water leads to damaging the bottom of ships even if they are far away from the centre of detonation.

· fireballs represent a stream of radiant energy, including ultra-violet, visible and infra-red. Brightness of fireballs during the first second is few times stronger than brightness of the Sun. Absorbed energy of fireballs turns into thermal energy, so it leads to warming up of the superficial stratum. The heat can be so strong that carbonization or inflammation of combustible materials and bursting or fusion of incombustible materials is possible. That leads to fires of enormous dimensions. Burns appear on those parts of skin that are turned to the explosion. If one is looking in the direction of the explosion than eye-lesion which leads to total loss sight is possible. Burns caused by fireballs have no difference with ones caused by fire or boiling water.

The lesser is the distance from the explosion and the more powerful is the ammunition the stronger they are. The damage caused by the fireballs can be subdivided into three degrees. First-degree burns mean the superficial skin affection: reddening, intumescences, morbidity. Second-degree burns (moderate skin burn) mean the appearance of bladders on the skin. Third-degree burns mean necrosis of the skin and formation of sores.

· penetrating radiation represents an invisible flow of gamma quanta and neutrons, emitted from of nuclear explosion. They extend on hundreds of meters in all directions. The number of gamma quanta and neutrons passing through the surface unit decreases with the increase of distance. Damaging action of penetrating radiation defines by the ability of gamma quanta and neutrons to ionize surrounding atoms. Passing through the living tissue, gamma quanta and neutrons ionize atoms and molecules belonging to cells and cause damages of vital functions of separate organs and systems. Under the influence of the ionization biological processes directed on extinction and decomposition take place in the organism. As a result of it diseased people get a specific illness called radiation sickness. Depending on radiation amount three degrees of radiation sickness are made out. The first one (light) is characterized by general weakness, slight nausea, passing vertigo, increasing hyperhidrosis. The second one (medium) is characterized by headache, rise in temperature, gastrointestinal disorder. The third one (heavy) can be characterized by intense headache, intense general weakness, vertigo and other indispositions; the heaviest form leads to fatal outcome.

· environmental contamination is caused by fission fragments of the charge substance and unreacted part of the charge. Their activity decreases with time. Half-value period of the most of radioactive isotopes is comparatively short: from one minute to one hour. The biggest part of long-living isotopes is concentrated in the radioactive cloud, formed after the explosion. The height of cloud rising for ammunition rating 10 kiloton is 6 km, 10 megaton – 25 km. While the cloud is moving, “big” particles drop out, then “smaller” and “the smallest”, forming radioactive contamination zone, the so-called track of the cloud. Lesions from inner irradiation appear as a result of getting of the radiators inside the organism through respiratory apparatus and alimentary canal. In this case radioactive emanation contacts with inner organs and may cause radiation sickness; the nature of the sickness depends on the quantity of radiators inside the organism.

· electromagnetic pulse first of all affects the electronics (insulation breakdown, damage of semiconductor devices, blowout of fuses etc.). It represents an extremely powerful electric field arising for a very short time.

Economical growth:

- destruction of inside and outside economic ties

- outlays on the reconstruction of destroyed industrial system, agriculture etc.

- outlays on medical care and decontamination of the area

- necessity of external economic assistance

- the victim-commonwealth economical growth after the elimination of after-effects of the aggressor-commonwealth actions

It is obvious, that the process of rebirth of the commonwealth is extremely hard and long. But Japan overcame the crisis after the destruction of Hiroshima and Nagasaki, and overcame it successfully. Mobilization of the country gave its results. Now Japan is the leading power in new technologies and this fact confirms the proverb “war is the motive power of progress”.

Political stability:

- tension in inside and outside economic relationships between commonwealth communities

- reaction of powers, friendly to the victim-commonwealth

- confrontation and policy of distrust between nations

- political isolation of the aggressor-commonwealth

- political crisis in the aggressor-commonwealth (demands of government change)

I’ve suggested possible variants of the events’ development. Of course there may be now confrontation and no isolation at all. It depends on the political atmosphere in the countries and in the world society itself on the moment.

Social stability:

- demonstrations of protest in powers, friendly to the victim-commonwealth, directed against the aggressor-commonwealth

- tendency of the population of the aggressor-commonwealth discordant with its politics to leave its confines

- the appearance of confronting groupings concordant and discordant with the politics of the aggressor-commonwealth

The reaction of the society on events, taking place in the world has always been different. There always were, are and will be concordant, discordant and indifferent. I don’t think that something is able to change it. The ideology of socialists teaches that at first one must change the society, and only then the man will change. The Bible teaches that when seeking for changes one must change himself. What will be closer to the Man of Future?

Checking feature:

- signature of international agreements, banning the expansion and production of nuclear weapons

- creation of international control authorities which will inspect the observance of an obligation

- application of the political and economical sanctions against the aggressor-commonwealth

New agreements must surely be signed in order to avoid precedents.

And are there such agreements now?

Yes, there are. And the most important among them is Nuclear Nonproliferation Treaty (NPT) signed in 1968 and taken the effect in 1970. In times of the Cold War there was one and probably the most important coincidence of interests between the USA and the USSR in spite of confrontation and arms race. Having obtained nuclear weapons and having created huge arsenals of it, they didn’t want anyone to “join their club”. It made the situation, which could be characterized with arms race and numerous conflicts even more difficult.

That’s why in the year of 1968 was signed NPT.

It is built on the conception saying that non-nuclear States which do not want to have or create nuclear weapons will take assistance of legal nuclear States in nuclear power engineering and peaceful nuclear researches.

The First Covenant obliges nuclear States not to hand over, not to help with, and not to encourage the process of creation of the nuclear weapons by other countries.

The Second Covenant obliges non-nuclear States participants of the Treaty not to have, not to take from anyone, not to produce and obtain nuclear weapons in any way.

The Sixth Covenant obliges nuclear States to bend every effort to nuclear disarmament.

The Ninth Covenant says that only those States are nuclear States, which have set off an explosion of a nuclear device before January 1, 1967. So five countries, which have set it off (the USA, the USSR – now Russia, Britain, France and China) were separated from the rest. And that’s how a line between the nuclear States and all others was laid.

But what did we get on practice?

After 1970 assistance and cooperation in the area was carried out not only with countries which had signed the Treaty but with States that were going to create nuclear weapon. Because there were other interests besides the principle of nonproliferation for nuclear States. They were: commercial interest, because the cooperation in the sphere of nuclear weapons is very profitable; or geopolitical, when assistance in creating nuclear weapon was rendered for supporting the ally.

For example, France helped Iraq, South Korea and Pakistan with nuclear programs. Germany helped Iran; now Germany is changed by Russia, although Iran is suspected in having a program of nuclear weapons development. China helped Pakistan for making a counterbalance to India. The USA and other countries closed their eyes for Israel’s nuclear program.

Many countries signed the Treaty, but they are not of any danger, because they don’t have enough money to make nuclear weapons, don’t want to or can’t have it. Those countries that pose a threat don’t want to join the agreement. France and China joined the Treaty 10-15 years ago; some countries have joined it, too – such as Iran, Iraq, North Korea, - but secretly they still have programs of creating personal nuclear weapons. They used technologies and materials taken from nuclear powers.

Now, what is to be said about non-nuclear States that criticize the Treaty even if they are its members. They don’t like the inequality incarnated in the Treaty. This inequality is also the reason why some countries don’t want to sign the agreement.

The lack of nuclear powers conscientiousness in fulfilling the obligation of the Treaty to help in development of nuclear energy can be easily explained. Noone will help the country that is not able to pay, even if it is a member of the agreement.

After the signature of the Treaty the quantity of nuclear weapons continued increasing. If on the moment of signature the USA and the USSR had approximately 2-3 thousand warheads, then in 20 years by the end of 80s the number of them increased to 10-12 thousand. Other countries, such as France, Britain and China slowly developed.

But there are some pluses. According to another agreement the number of Russian and American nuclear warheads reduced to 5000 from each side. And according to the Moscow Agreement signed in May, the number of them is suggested to reduce to 2000 in 10 years. So, you see how many defects NPT has. I think it must have drastic changes. So does A. G. Arbatov, Doctor of Historical science, vice-chairman of State Duma Defence Committee:

“There is so much to be done. Isn’t it obvious that if NPT functioned as it was pre-arranged we would not have all the problems we do have now? And it is the main document to control the nuclear weapons nonproliferation and proliferation as it comes from the Treaty’s appellation. So we do change our policy or we do change the documents it is based on.”

The problem of inequality must be solved first of all. I think the easiest way is to forbid all kinds of weapon which use nuclear power. Of course, few countries will agree.

Probably there must be some kind of stimulus, for example, benefits or bonifications.

What else can stimulate the free-will desire of countries to get rid of nuclear weapons? But costs for nuclear weapon maintenance are really huge. Money excused from it can be spent on public health service, education, maintenance of prosperity of the country as a whole.

There surely will be some economic benefits; economical and political ties between countries will become stronger.

One more advantage is stopping armed conflict for a long period of time.

But there always are merits and demerits. With the destruction of nuclear weapons rises the possibility of nuclear terrorism.

On October 5, 2001, Department of State published the list of foreign terrorist organizations. It consists of 28 items.

On October 10, 2001, George Bush personally promulgated the FBI list of criminals which are searched for above all. It includes 22 persons accused of acts of terrorism.

So the new NPT must contain an item about control of nuclear terrorism. For example, responsibility for the actions launched by the terrorists must undertake the country within the bounds of which terrorist base is settled. Because the main question will be: who takes the responsibility for the acts of terrorism?

Science and involved technologies:

- development of research activities and advanced technologies meant for the quest of new kind of weapon

- development of research activities and advanced technologies meant for the quest of peaceful use or destruction of purveyances of nuclear weapons

It seems to me that the main, primary stress must be on this point. For now the humanity uses nuclear power plants and nuclear-powered icebreakers. But advanced technology presses towards taking over thermonuclear fusion power. This will let the humanity leave behind all problems with the electricity and power supply. One glass of water will give us as much energy as 200 liters of benzene.

But the realization of thermonuclear synthesis reaction is connected with great technical difficulties (fixed temperature - 1000000 centigrade degrees, definite consistence of the substance and keeping all this permanent for some time) and requires joint efforts of scientists from every part of the world.

There are two fundamental plans of controlled fusion realization:

· heating and keeping of plasma with magnetic field under relatively low pressure and high temperature. Reactors like tokamaks, stellarators and torsatron are used for this, because they are remarkable for magnetic field configuration. Reactor ITER has configuration of tokamak.

· short-term heating of small targets, comprising heavy hydrogen and tritium with extra-high-power impulses (laser and ionic).

Analysis of the first kind of thermonuclear reactors is appreciably much more developed than the second one at the moment.

L. Arzimovich said:

“The problem of RTS (reaction of thermonuclear synthesis) leaves behind all other problems of the present. Our aim is to direct our energies to solving it as soon as possible.”

There is one more point to be mentioned when talking about nuclear weapons.

Precautions:

There are four ways to protect the citizenry of a country:

· information, which is the most important. People have to know the actual state of affairs. They must know how to protect themselves, assess the danger; they must develop a clear plan of actions to avoid dismay and not to give way to panic; they must know where to turn for help; they must be ready for the worst. This doesn’t mean that they must live in constant fear. This means that, as it is sung in a popular song “tomorrow comes today…”. Evident problem-solving is distribution of booklets, books etc. But it is unlikely that everyone will take it seriously. The government must arrange a series of lectures directed on problems of nuclear incident consequences; such lectures must be held in schools, educational institutions, at works, plants. They can be read on the radio and television. There must be signs in the streets guiding to the nearest bomb proof shelters. Seeing, hearing and reading the information about possible incident must settle the sense of security in the citizenry. I think that in the educational program there must be included reading books (science or science-fiction) about the future after a nuclear warfare, special attention to real-world examples must be paid at History lessons. The new generation is not easily influenced on, but is it impossible to prove that nuclear incident is a justifiable threat, not a fairy-tale?

· protective instruments must be distributed in every corner of the Earth. They must be widely available. The government must prevent the appearance of companies aiming at making a fortune out of human confusion and helplessness. They may try to distribute fake protective instruments for big money. So people must know where exactly they may buy the true protective instruments. I also think that a special service checking the presence of operational protective instruments must be arranged in every house. This will require financing and labor.

· trainings must be carried out in schools and at works. Students and grown-ups must not tremble with fear when they hear alert. This signal must inspire them on mobilization, concentrating; they must clearly understand that panic is the surest way to meeting the danger unarmed.

· bomb proof shelters must be arranged in as many buildings as possible. But they surely must be in every school, every supermarket – every place that houses a big number of people. Information about location of bomb proof shelters must be available. This will require financing and labor, too.

So, I’ve provided you the information about what is to be done to avoid the helplessness of citizenry in the face of imminent danger. You see, that the government of every country must bend every effort to education and instruction of its citizenry in the questions of nuclear incidents and its consequences. The ultimate aim is “knowing what and how to do”.

Sources:

· http://www.imdb.com/title/tt0119925/

· http://www.thepostman.com/

· Arjun Makhijani, "Japan: "Always" the Target?", Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists, May/June, 1995

· Barry Blechman and Stephen Kaplan, Force Without War. Washington, DC: Brookings Institution, 1978

· Donna Gregory, ed., The Nuclear Predicament, New York: St. Martin's Press, 1986

· Robert S. Norris and William M. Arkin, "NRDC Nuclear Notebook," Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists

· Department of Defense Directive Number 5134.9, June 14, 1994

· Samuel Glasston, Philip Dolan, “The Effects of Nuclear Weapon”, 1977.

· R. M. Timerbaeva "Russia and Nuclear proliferation 1945-1968", Moscow, "Nauka", 1999

· http://www.answers.com/topic/nuclear-testing

· http://www.globalsecurity.org/wmd/systems/nuke-stockpile.htm

· http://www.uic.com.au/nip33.htm

· www.iaea.org/