Center for

Nonproliferation

Studies

 

                                               MONTEREY

                                                        INSTITUTE

                                                        OF

                                                        INTERNATIONAL

                                                        STUDIES

 

 

 

 

Benchmark 3

 

by

Nail Timkanov

 

 

 

 

          SCHOOL №39

          OZYORSK

          RUSSIA                  

                                                              

                                         

 

                                         

May, 2007


Contents

1.     Introduction

2.   “A long time ago in a galaxy far, far away….” or High-school Seniors’ Reviews of the Star Wars Series

3.   Children’s Pictures “Space as We Imagine it!”

4.   Scenarios for the Future: China and Brazil

5.   Interview with our Teachers

6.   Space and Nuclear Accidents

7.   Conclusion

8.   References


Introduction

In “Benchmark – I” and “Benchmark – II” I made a deep and thorough research of space and people’s interaction in it. I learned a lot about the way different countries explore, use space and develop new revolutionary technologies. I also focused my attention on various means of control of space utilization undertaken by existing and emerging space powers and different governmental and non-governmental organizations all over the world. Besides, I studied, on the one hand, the benefits reaped of space technologies and numerous spin-offs; and, on the other hand, space weapons, their kinds and operating principles. So, it won’t be an exaggeration to say, that by means of such a many-sided approach to the space issues I surely gained a profound knowledge of the topic, which I used in “Benchmark 3”.

Besides, after the Spring 2007 Student-Teacher Conference I was so inspired that I decided to get not only my class, but also junior and senior students as well as teachers to take part in the research of nonproliferation issues. Together we reflected upon the present and future of space research, imagined the consequences of unwise use of space, tried to explain the effects of an accident with a space object, etc.

But, of course, while I was fulfilling these extremely creative tasks, I did my best to research and analyze the future of space development within the context of the four domains:

·   Scientific / environmental

·   Economic

·   Social / cultural

·   Political / geo-political.

 

 


 A Long Time Ago in a Galaxy Far, Far Away…

 

In this part of the Benchmark I, my class, fifth-formers and high-school seniors previewed and then researched the Star Wars

movie series. These hugely popular science-fiction films

which brought about a revolution in moviemaking use

 space as a theme. So, it was extremely interesting

to watch the films, analyze them and write

reviews using the knowledge about

the space that I gained

during this year.

It won’t be an exaggeration to say that the Star Wars movie series is a legendary and hugely popular science-fiction films which took popular culture by storm and redefined the nature of the screen spectacle.

The guiding force behind them is George Lucas, American motion-picture director and producer. (Encarta)

Wikipedia

 
He either directed or produced the following films:

·   THX-1138 (1965), a science-fiction story;

·   American Graffiti (1973), an evocative 1960s nostalgia piece;

·   A New Hope (1977), the forth episode of the Star Wars series;

·   The Empire Strikes Back (1980), the fifth episode of the Star Wars series;

·   Return of the Jedi (1983), the sixth episode of the Star Wars series;

·   Willow (1988), a fantasy novel;

·   Raiders of the Lost Ark (1981);

·   Indiana Jones and the Temple of Doom (1984);

·    Indiana Jones and the Last Crusade (1989);

·   a series The Young Indiana Jones Chronicles (1992-1994);

·   Shadow Moon (1995), the continuation of the story of Willow;

·   the first installment of the Chronicles of the Shadow War trilogy that included Shadow Dawn (1997) and Shadow Star (1999);

·   The Phantom Menace (1999), the first prequel  and the first episode of the Star Wars movies;

·   Attack of the Clones (2002), the second episode of the Star Wars series;

·   Revenge of the Sith (2005), the third episode of the Star Wars series.       

www.wikipedia.com

 

High-school Seniors’ Reviews

of the Star Wars Series

Wikipedia

 

Review by Natasha Fomina

One of the most fantastic and supernatural films of the 20th century is “Star Wars”.  It won’t be an exaggeration to say that nowadays we can not find a person who did not hear about it.

  Speaking of this film I must say that it consists of six episode: “The Phantom Menace”, “Attack of the Clones”, “Revenge of the Sith”, “A new Hope”, “The Empire Strikes Back” and “Return of the Jedi”.

I’d like to point out that the first, the second and the third episodes were released approximately 19 years after the production of the last three episodes of this space saga. It’s so interesting and really unusual!

It won’t be an exaggeration to say that many famous films have sequels, but they are very predictable and usually, even without watching them, we already know the continuation of the hero’s life and, probably, the ending. But Star Wars series is another story! It has a very gripping and breathtaking subject! Space! And the plot embraces a huge amount of various events!

The first three episodes tell us about the downfall of the Old Republic and the rise of the Galactic Empire. In them we also learn the story of Anakin Skywalker, the “Chosen one”, rising as a gifted young Judi and eventually transforming into Darth Vader via the Dark Side of the Force.

The following three episodes are given up to the story of Luke, the son of Darth Vader, and his rise in the rebellion against the Empire.

The main idea of “Star Wars” is wrestling between good and evil and not only in the Galaxy, but in the hearts of people. Maybe, that’s why the Star Wars series has become one of the immortal films, the classics of the word’s cinematograph.

In my opinion, if each person in the world thinks about other people, if we bear Love in our hearts and souls, if people take care about each other, we’ll live in harmony and prosperity and there won’t be any armed conflicts, neither on Earth nor in space. I really believe that the solution of all the problems of the mankind lies within our hearts, within each person’s attitude towards the world. We are the only to decide which way to go: to lose hope and submit to our dark side or to discover light inside. Shmi Skywalker said: "Anakin, this path has been placed before you. The choice is yours alone."  

 


 

Review by Marina Chernitzova

         No one can deny that other galaxies and worlds have always interested the mankind. That is why besides real space exploration and research a lot of people travel to far planets and stars in their imagination. Are you keen on this kind of adventures? If you are, I invite you to the world of the Star Wars. I am sure that this film gives a lot of new impressions and intrigues us by the plot.

         It’s common knowledge that the evens of this story take place in the fantastic accumulation of the planets. In my opinion, despite the fictional location and characters the conception of the Star Wars is not so simple as in fairy tales. I believe that the conflicts introduced there are numerous.

Firstly, the general problem consists in the confrontation between two social groups, which are fighting for the superiority and domination in the galaxy: the Old Republic tries to maintain its leading position, reserve the rights of all dwellers and preserve the independence of their commercial interests. Moreover, the Galactic Empire strives for seizure of power in all fields of public life, using politics and secret forces at the first episodes and rushing to the attack, building the Death Star later. So there we can see the social and political sides of the conflict.

         Secondly, I should admit, that one of the heaviest struggles in the film is between the forces of good and evil. The balance is kept by the Jedis who own the Force and can do unusual things. The main characters, Anakin and Luke, should make their decision between two sides of convictions. You see, there is a moral conflict.

Thirdly, the psychological confrontation plays a great role too: only a truly strong hero has real friends who are always ready to help (Like Han Solo for Luke).

         Speaking about the persons of the film, my loveliest character is Gungan, Jar Jar Binks. I find him funny, little strange and naïve, enjoy his manner of behavior and speech. As for me, I am fond of different fantastic creatures of the film, which make it colorful and amazing.

         In general, I want to stress the point that the zest of the Star Wars is in combination of real conflicts and fantastic atmosphere, which attracts our attention and absorbs us into the world of real fancy.


 

 

Review by Christina Vatutina

Wikipedia

 
I bet you’ll not find any person, who has never heard about one of the most famous films of the entertainment industry – Star Wars. Its history began in the late 70s of the 20th century, when science- fiction and fantastic films were highly popular among people, especially children. But the Star Wars world, unlike many others, was portrayed as dirty and grimy. As well, even though the Star Wars stories span millennia, little technological evolution is depicted. In interviews, Lucas claims that new props were rubbed with dirt to give them a weather-worn appearance, which he calls “a used or ancient future”. In my view, this film is fascinating and actual even nowadays because of its global scope and exciting plot.

The events of Star Wars take place in the fictional Star Wars galaxy. The characters are various and unlikable, commonly identical to humans. Although firstly people were stricken by enormous kinds of fantastic creatures, magic elements, Jedi knights etc. 

Wikipedia

 
If you want me to be honest, I was attracted by a handsome actor, who played Anakin Skywalker, a gifted young Jedi. Episodes I, II and III chronicle the collapse of the old Republic and the rise of the Galactic Empire. It’s also the story of Anakin Skywalker, Padme Amidala, Obi-Wan Kenobi, Master Yoda, who were the members of the Jedi Order and fought against the Dark side. Anakin was in love with Padme, but their marriage was illegal and finally Padme died

Wikipedia

 
giving birth to their twins, Luke and Leia. Palpatine, as Darth Sidious , seized this opportunity to tempt Anakin to the Dark Side, so young Jedi had transformed to Darth Vader destroying all the remaining Jedi in the Galaxy.

The Wars in the Galaxy were countless: The Clone Wars, The Civil War (a lengthy conflict in which the Galactic Empire falls at the hands of the Rebel Alliance) so you should bear in mind that the plot of the film is very dynamic and intrigue. George Lucas utilized a style of epic storytelling that uses motifs, common themes and concepts which he alters slightly each time they occur. Once I was really crazy  about these films and I’m deeply convinced, they are worth watching!

 


Children’s Pictures

“Space as We Imagine it!”

 

Oval Callout: By Maria Syilko

Oval Callout: By Tanya
Belova

Oval Callout: By Anna Korchyomkina

 

Oval Callout: By Artyom Abalakov

 

Oval Callout: By Angelina Khortova

Oval Callout: By Maxim Krivenko

 

Oval Callout: By Eugene Turusov
 


 

Oval Callout: By Lada Bisyarina

 

 

 

 

 

Oval Callout: By Maria Ustinova

 

Oval Callout: By Anastasiya
Kharina

 

Oval Callout: By Viktoria Lukina

 

Scenarios for the Future

 

Using the knowledge I’ve learned so far in researching this year’s topic and in taking part in the conference, I’ve decided to address the following areas of the world: China and Brazil.

The motive of my choice is quite evident. The point is that during my investigation I’ve made a thorough research and comparison of Russian and American space programs and, in my opinion, my concentration on the future of Chinese and Brazilian space exploration and utilization will surely become interesting and useful experience for me.

So, in this part of Benchmark 3 I’m going to build and compare space-use scenarios for the areas I’ve chosen (China and Brazil) and investigate how countries’ space programs will affect economic, political and social stability of the states.

 


 
China

 (Encarta)

 

Nowadays China is considered to be one of the existing space powers, which goes after Russia and the USA. Since the development its space program has gone through stages of arduous pioneering, development, reform and revitalization, and international co-operation. China’s space industry was developed from a non-existent industrial infrastructure to scientific and technological level. After 45 years of struggle China ranked among the most advanced countries in such fields as satellite recovery, multi-satellite launch by a single rocket, cryogenic propulsion, strap-on boosters, geo-stationary satellites, and satellite tracking and control. Significant achievements were also made in remote-sensing and telecommunications satellites, micro-gravity experiments, and manned spacecraft development.  

Speaking about this country, I think there are two possible scenarios.

The first space-use scenario arises from the fact that the Chinese space program was initiated at the behest of the Central Military Commission for fulfilling national defense needs. That means that the potential military utility of space was the central reason for China embarking on its national space program since 1956. The original program was aimed at developing China’s aviation, guided missiles, rockets and missile defense needs. And though nowadays China has pursuits in both civilian and military space technology, we can’t be entirely sure whether military or civilian applications of space will become dominating in the future.

In the case of China’s prevailing military use of space technologies for the purpose of consolidation of its position as an emerging superpower, the situation between the United States, Russia and China will resemble the Cold War and Space Race. This will lead to the outbreak of military espionage and the following security crackdowns and spy hunts. Of course, all these will result in increased concern of international governmental and non-governmental organizations dealing with security and space issues which will surely condemn China’s activities. There will appear tension and falling off in Chinese relations with other countries, which leaders will have to take strong measures (such as the use of sanctions) in order to stabilize world’s situation. It goes without saying that it will lead to political, social and economic instability in the country, hence, to the suspense of technological development and to national security threat.

Another scenario is much more optimistic. If China chooses civilian application of space, it will result in continued international co-operation in order to both obtain more-advanced technology from Western countries and to assist developing countries in development of space technology. Such international mutual aid in this field will be beneficial to all the countries. Besides, it will improve the relations between them and bring to the collaboration for the purpose of solving the most crucial issues of the day. As for China, it will have an opportunity to develop its space program, to conduct scientific research of space, to improve its civilian earth observation systems, to establish independent Chinese satellite navigation and positioning system, to upgrade launch vehicles and to carry out manned spaceflight scientific investigation and technological experiments.  All these will promote political and economic stability in the country. Besides, the country will evolve innovative technologies beneficial to the society. Hence, the government will get powerful backing from the population, and, thus, it will manage to maintain social stability in the country. It goes without saying that cooperation will result in joint efforts in the field of international security.

So, I think that in the case of China there exist two possible scenarios for the future. The first is connected with the development of military space applications and the second with the civilian space exploration. We don’t know what way China will choose in the future, but I hope that the choice will be well-weighed and carefully thought out.


Brazil

 

(Encarta)

 

It won’t be an exaggeration to say that Brazil has the most advanced space program in Latin America, with significant capabilities in launch vehicles, launch sites, and satellite manufacturing. Its geographic and economic characteristics are such that there is a great potential to employ space technology to meet national needs. Those include the country’s continental size, its under-populated land borders, its huge coastline, its tropical forest regions and the enormous areas characterized by difficult access and sparse population distribution, besides the extensive natural resources still to be surveyed in its territory. Therefore, in spite of the fact that Brazilian program was originally under the control of the Brazilian military, nowadays its space applications are directed towards the solution of concrete national civilian problems, in the fields of earth observation (agriculture, environment, natural resources and territorial organization), meteorology, oceanography, communications, navigation and geodesy.

In my opinion, there is no doubt that Brazil utilizes space only in peaceful purposes. It proved its good intention when on the 11th of February, 1994; it announced that it would comply with MTCR (Missile Technology Control Regime) guidelines. In October 1995 Brazil's application for MTCR membership was accepted, and the country became open for export controls on its space and missile goods and technology. Besides, in its statements related to space arms control since 2002, Brazil consistently emphasizes that its space endeavors are for peaceful uses and in 2002, voiced its support for the negotiation of a treaty banning space weapons. So, I think that in the future Brazil will pursue the same course. It will actively develop the civilian sector of space exploration in order to improve economic situation in the country, as, in my opinion, this plays a key role for any developing country.

Brazil will try to create some projects capable of mobilizing considerable efforts and resources towards challenging, significant and deserving goals, and also to those seeking solutions to national problems, particularly through the application of space technology. For example, the promotion of the development of space technologies will lead to the revitalization of the industry which will become adjusted and prepared to participate and become competitive in the market for space goods and services. This will improve social and economic situation in the country as the development of this sector of industry will provide numerous vacancies to the population and thus decrease jobless rate.

Besides, it will attract the capital in the country as foreign firms and enterprises will be eager to invest money in the economy as the development of space will lead to the stabilization of the internal situation and foreign investors won’t be afraid to fail or to become out of the business and lose their money.

From ecological point of view, Brazilian space exploration will be undoubtedly safe due to the intentions of the country to investigate civilian applications of space to the needs of the society and its strong disinclination to use and to proliferate weapons of mass destruction.

As to the security issues, nowadays Brazil adheres to the policy of joint technological development and cooperation with both more advanced and emerging space programs. I think it will result in its collaboration with other countries with the object of solving the most critical and burning security issues of the day.

So, I think that Brazil has only one space-use scenario, as, in my opinion, it will have as its object civilian space exploration.


Interview with our Teachers

Interview with Vera Ignatenko,

a Maths teacher

1. For what purposes is space used nowadays: civilian or military?

I think that space has mainly civilian application nowadays.

2. For what purposes should we use space?

We should use space for civilian purposes to promote technological progress and for military ones to maintain a strategic balance in the world.

3. Are you for or against the proliferation of weapons of mass destruction in space?

I am against proliferation neither in space nor on Earth.

4. What will happen if a space object crashes in a populated area?

I think it will lead to the negative attitude of the population towards space programs and government which has not managed to prevent the catastrophe.

 

5. Explain the effects of an accident of a nuclear powered space object?

Radioactive contamination of the area of an accident.

Interview of Oxana Asvatova,

a Maths teacher

1. For what purposes is space used nowadays: civilian or military?

Mainly for civilian purpose. But, of course, military uses also take a place.

2. For what purposes should we use space?

In my opinion, we should use space for peaceful purposes, as we have enough weapons of mass destruction as it is. I think it’s time to stop.

3. Are you for or against the proliferation of weapons of mass destruction in space?

I am against, but I don’t rule out the possibility of use of such weapons, if the planet is in danger.

4. What will happen if a space object crashes in a populated area?

I think that accident risk in this case is infinitesimal.

5. Explain the effects of an accident of a nuclear powered space object?

Launch areas are situated far away from populated areas, so I think there won’t be a lot of victims of the accident. Radioactive pollution is possible.

Interview of Sergey Voitko,

an English teacher

1. For what purposes is space used nowadays: civilian or military?

Mainly for military purpose.

2. For what purposes should we use space?

In my opinion, for both military and civilian purposes.

3. Are you for or against the proliferation of weapons of mass destruction in space?

It goes without saying, I am against the proliferation.

4. What will happen if a space object crashes in a populated area?

There will be a lot of victims of the accident.

5. Explain the effects of an accident of a nuclear powered space object?

I think there won’t be a lot of victims of the accident. But nearby areas will suffer from radioactive contamination.

 

 

Space and Nuclear Accidents

Have you ever thought how fragile our planet is and how greedy and foolish in their wish to dominate over everything earth dwellers are? Yes, I have and not once.

Investigating the problem of nonproliferation I made a not comforting discovery that striving for superiority countries’ leaders are ready to sacrifice the planet’s clean environment and citizens’ health, well-being and sometimes even lives to some questionable and insubstantial advantages. Purposing this very aim, people have tried to winkle all possible resources out of Earth. And nowadays we are really on a path leading to deforestation, extreme pollution of the environment, devastation of natural resources and, finally, to people’s dying out for lack of the stuff needed to satisfy our everyday needs. Realizing the trend of affairs, leaders have already begun to explore space in order to find some useful and necessary resources, to enlist the support of the electorate and to consolidate their hold and prestige. Without thinking about the consequences, in the middle of the 20th century people began to develop and to launch nuclear powered space objects. The leadership in this area has always belonged to the USA and the Soviet Union, the countries which began their nuclear missions in the 50-s.  Over this period of time there were several nuclear accidents in space, accidents which were and still are very dangerous to the ecosystem of the planet and population health. It’s worth mentioning that the incidents happened to both Soviet (then Russian) and American nuclear powered spacecrafts.

Here I want to present you a shot timeline of the past nuclear accidents in space, as I think that in order to predict the future we are to know the past.

USA

Soviet Union/Russia

1964

On the 21th of April the US Transit-5BN-3 navigational satellite failed to achieve orbit. Its SNAP 9A RTG power source disintegrated in the atmosphere (as it was designed to do in case of re-entry) at an altitude of about 50 kilometers. Release of its 17,000 curies of plutonium-238 tripled the worldwide environmental inventory of plutonium-238 and increased the total world environmental burden (measured in curies) from all plutonium isotopes (mostly fallout from atmospheric nuclear weapons testing) by about 4 percent.

 

1968

On the 18th of May, the US Nimbus-B-l meteorological satellite was aborted following a launch failure, and fell into the Pacific Ocean just off the California coast. Five months later, its two SNAP 19A RTGs were retrieved intact.

 

1969

 

In January Soviet unmanned lunar rover COSMOS 305 lost rocket power and stayed in orbit, dispersing radiation in upper atmosphere.

 

On the 23d of September and the 22nd of October the USSR launched unmanned probes to the moon. Both achieved earth orbit, but re-entered the atmosphere a few days later. According to various sources, one or both of them carried a polonium-210 heat source. Measurable amounts of radioactivity were detected in the atmosphere following re-entry.

1970

A US moon mission, Apollo 13, was aborted in April. Its jettisoned lunar lander fell into the Pacific Ocean. The SNAP 27 plutonium power supplyhas never been recovered, but atmospheric sampling detected no release of radioactivity, and the RTG is assumed to have remained intact.

 

1973

 

On the 25th of April a Soviet nuclear powered RORSAT fell into the Pacific Ocean near Japan after a launch failure.

1978

 

In one of the most serious accidents involving space nuclear power, the Soviet Cosmos 954 re-entered the atmosphere on the 24th of January, spreading thousands of pieces of radioactive debris over more than 100,000 square kilometers of northwest Canada. A few fragments were highly radioactive (gamma radiation as high as 500 roentgens per hour near contact). Canadian-U.S. teams cleaned up; after that no detectable contamination found.

1983

 

The jettisoned reactor core from Cosmos 1402 re-entered the atmosphere on the 7th of February, where it disintegrated and was dispersed.

1988

 

Radio contact with Cosmos 1900 was lost in April, preventing a directed boost of the satellite to a high-altitude disposal orbit. Backup systems were finally activated on the 30th of September, just days before anticipated reentry, and the on-board reactor was boosted to a higher orbit.

1993

 

In February COSMOS 1402 crashed into the South Atlantic carrying 68 pounds of uranium-235.

1996

 

In November MARS96 disintegrated over Chile or Bolivia, possibly spreading its payload of nearly a half pound of plutonium.

 

So, as you can see the list of space nuclear accidents is rather huge. Undoubtedly, each of the catastrophes had an impact on our ecosystem, the impact which in the most of the cases is imperceptible, but we can’t deny the fact that it does exist.

It’s also worth mentioning that 15 % of all the launches of the nuclear powered spacecrafts failed. In my opinion, the percentage is rather substantial and really, really threatening. But worst of all is that nuclear space technologies are still developed. So we can say that the rise of their active application in space is yet to come. And it’s evident that most of the leaders and politicians are not inclined to pay any attention to the consequences of nuclear mission failures. They are not inclined to notice that we don’t have yet any sufficient experimental basis to conduct the launches and to handle the after-effects of crashes. And, I think, in the future the situation will become even more complicated as each accident will double or triple the worldwide environmental inventory of radioactive isotopes and increase the total world environmental burden from them. All these will lead to the aggravation of the environment and population health, the outbreak of such serious and almost incurable diseases as cancer or radiation sickness, high rate of infant mortality, further development of greenhouse effect, rise in temperature, thawing of glaciers, and thus to the total climate change. These surely will bring economic, social and political instability.

  It follows from such evidence that citizens worldwide have a strong basis for opposing activities which produce an appreciable risk of exposing humans and others to plutonium and other radioactive pollution at any level. The fact that humans cannot escape exposure to ionizing radiation from various natural sources is no reason to let human activities increase the exposure to ionizing radiation. We do want to live on a clean planet, to have stability and confidence of the future!!!!!


Conclusion

So I have examined some important aspects of space and space security. I tried to make out why some states do want to have weapons of mass destruction in space and other countries are against its militarization and further weaponization. Every day lots of countries fight to dominate over each other and for some of them weapons of mass destruction seem to be the easiest way to succeed. I am glad that nowadays we‘ve begun to discuss the burning issues of space security and talk about the grave consequences of its thoughtless use. This makes people all other the world (and, maybe, some leaders) think about the problem and strive for its solution.

Of course, I know that further space exploration has become an inevitable and one of the most important parts of technological progress. I believe that development of space technologies is a real breakthrough in modern science. No wonder that every country wants to improve its economical and political position in the world using space potential. But, in my opinion, they can do it by some peaceful means, for example, by the development of civilian applications of space such as telemedicine, global positioning systems, etc. And I am glad that nowadays many countries are beginning to speak in favor of nonproliferation of weapons of mass destruction in space. This topic is becoming one of the most burning issues of a day. A lot of people are beginning to realize that we should create peaceful conditions for life on our planet and that we need to learn how to solve our problems without wars and battles. In order to support this idea many states have begun to cooperate & create special space programs which aim at peaceful uses of space for the benefits of all the people. And I think that we, the next generation, must do our best to avoid the World War III and a new space race. We can’t stake our planet and our lives. We are to protect Earth.

And I don’t want to abandon hope that one day our planet will be much more peaceful and nice place to live without tragedies and catastrophes. And my dream will undoubtedly come true!


References

1.     Encarta Deluxe, 2006

2.   Britannica, 2006

3.   www.en.wikipedia.com

4.   http://cns.miis.edu/research/space/links.htm

5.   http://cns.miis.edu/research/space/cnsres.htm

6.   http://www.globalsecurity.org/space/index.html

7.   http://www.idds.org/issSpaceWeaponization.html

8.   http://www.spacetoday.net/

9.   http://spacesecurity.org/

10.http://www.roscosmos.ru/index.asp?Lang=ENG