MONTEREY INSTITUTE OF INTERNATIONAL STUDIES

CENTER FOR NONPROLIFERATION STUDIES

Critical Issues Forum 2006-2007

Space: Forum for Cooperation or Next Frontier for WMD Proliferation?

High School 125, Snezhinsk, Russian Federation

Student: Anna Melnikova

Teacher: Marina Chebysheva

Benchmark II

Objective 1 - Space Programs: Who has them?

Scientific and technical requirements to develop a space program

Development of the space program, especially a manned spacecraft, is very much a challenge. Such an effort would require major work in a number of scientific and technology fields:

· attitude control systems (gyroscopes, accelerometers, visual guidance systems);

· engines;

· propulsion systems;

· wind tunnels;

· advanced computing systems, software tools and mathematical tools, including mathematical modeling services, numerical methods;

· life support systems;

· crew escape systems;

· recoverable spacecrafts;

· launch sites (spaceports);

· advanced structures and materials;

· advanced thermal protection and regulation systems;

· advanced power systems (solar and nuclear power systems);

· communications systems;

· remote-sensing systems;

· electronics, informatics, medicine, biology, chemistry, physics, mathematics, and many others;

· multi-disciplinary subjects, such us biomimetics (discipline finding inspiration in biological systems to define new engineering solutions);

· and many more…

The benefits of a space program to society

We know that we explore and develop space because there are real rewards to be reaped - political, economic and social. Space exploration advance new technologies, foster international cooperation and spur economic growth. Terrestrial applications of technologies developed for space have saved many lives, made possible medical breakthroughs, created countless jobs, and yielded diverse other tangible benefits for society.

Space exploration offers the nations the chance to leave the history of warfare behind and work together toward a new, peaceful age. Our changing world political situation can benefit from international cooperation in space. The cold-war was symbolized by the race to the Moon. The new world order could well be symbolized by cooperating in the space arena.

There also is new knowledge to be gained - about new technologies, about medical advances, about climate control and environmental protection - that can enhance our quality of life.

Technology developed for space program has often subsequently provided practical benefits to society. In the Benchmark I we have considered a lot of examples of technology transfers.

For example, NASA spin-offs [1] help us in such areas, as Health and Medicine, Transportation and Public Safety, Communications (much of cell phone technology has been derived from space program spin-offs), Environmental and Resource Management (remote sensing technology developed for analysis of planetary images has improved agricultural production; similar technology can be used for natural resource management and disaster analysis), Scientific Knowledge (the extreme greenhouse effect identified on Venus in the 1960’s led to more research into global warming on Earth).

The possibilities of solar power satellites for unlimited clean energy, extraterrestrial materials for manufacturing, and pharmaceutical development for medical research could greatly enhance the future of human society. Solar energy could be harvested 24 hours a day, 7 days a week and beamed safely down to collectors on Earth. Using weightless space manufacturing techniques, unique materials could be created.

Communications satellites have literally opened up the world for exchange of information, ideas and currency. Earth monitoring satellites are allowing us to better understand our global environment. Weather satellites have dramatically improved weather forecasts and severe weather predictions.

The space program is part of the solution to unemployment. Increased space funding would directly create hundreds of thousands of new jobs.

The space program can enrich society by directly enhancing the quality of education. Tens of thousands of students bettered their education after being inspired by the successful space programs. Many of these young people dreamed of becoming astronauts or workers on space development.

Future advancements in space transportation will make it possible for average citizens to tour the solar system. The prospect of space travel seems attractive to the public, and particularly to children. Yet in order to understand space flight children need to understand a wide range of subjects in engineering, physics, chemistry, biology and other scientific fields. Thus it can be anticipated that the development of a space program could help to make modern technological education an interesting and natural process, rather than one that is seen as unnecessary and boring.

Who has space programs?

Virtually every country in the world nowadays uses satellites for communications and obtaining weather data and “… already about 130 states in the world have their space-related programs now. The humankind is increasingly dependent on the results of its outer space activities”. [2] In 2006, Brazil, China, France, India, Israel, Japan, Russia, Ukraine, United States and the European Space Agency (ESA’s 17 Member States are Austria, Belgium, Denmark, Finland, France, Germany, Greece, Ireland, Italy, Luxembourg, the Netherlands, Norway, Portugal, Spain, Sweden, Switzerland and the United Kingdom) possess advanced space launch capability, and are members of the “space-faring” club. Argentina, Australia, Canada, Pakistan have advanced space programs. The list of countries that have a potential to develop advanced space programs include Malaysia, Singapore, Thailand, Indonesia, Iran, Philippines, South and North Korea, Republic of South Africa, Taiwan.

Let's examine in brief the space programs of the states entering into space-faring club.

Brazil

The Brazilian Space Agency is the civilian authority in Brazil that is in charge of the country's burgeoning space program. It operates a rocket launch site at Alcântara. Previously, the space program had been under the control of the Brazilian military. Because of pressure from the United States over the possible military application of its space program, the program was transferred into civilian control in 1994. It suffered a major setback in 2003, when a rocket explosion killed 21 technicians. The first successful rocket was launched on October 23, 2004; it was a VSV-30, or Brazilian Exploration Vehicle, launched on a sub-orbital mission. The Brazilian Space Agency has pursued a policy of joint technological development with more advanced space programs. Initially it relied heavily on the United States, but after meeting difficulties from them on technological transfers, Brazil has branched out, working with other nations, including Ukraine, Israel, Argentina and China.

China

China has pursuits in both civilian and military space technology. The Chinese National Space Administration coordinates China's activities with other national space programs, while the China Aerospace Science and Technology Corporation is the primary entity responsible for China's domestic space needs, including the development of launch vehicles and satellites and the conduct of launches. China is one of three nations to have achieved success in recovering satellites and executing a manned space mission. China conducted successfully its first manned mission on October 15, 2003 using the Shenzhou V spacecraft. China's goals for the first decade of the 21st century include: developing an earth observation system, satellite navigation and positioning system, an independent telecommunications satellite network, and a complete satellite remote-sensing application system; upgrading the current capability of its Long March launch vehicles; and establishing a research, development, and testing system for its manned space program.

China maintains an advanced telemetry, tracking, and command network (TT&C). Additionally, in March 2005 China established the Space Target and Debris Observation and Research Center to aid in the prevention of debris strikes against satellites and manned spacecraft. China’s long-term goals in space exploration include sending a satellite into lunar orbit, followed by a robotic explorer and an eventual moonwalk. China also has plans to build a space station on the Moon.

France

France established its national space agency, the Centre national d'etudes spatiales (CNES - National Space Studies Center), in 1961. CNES is a civilian agency that is in charge of proposing and implementing all aspects of French space policy, including the design, development, and production of new technologies. CNES works in coordination with French military institutions and oversees military space policy applications. France became the third country to launch a satellite into space, after a Diamant rocket successfully orbited the Asterix-1 in 1965. Since the establishment of ESA, France's equatorial launch site in Kourou, French Guiana, is now referred to as "Europe's Spaceport" and launches European missions in cooperation with the commercial launch services company, Arianespace. France's military space program focuses primarily on advanced remote sensing satellites. The Helios-2 satellites will work for the French defense program's Earth observation mission. The Essaim satellites will be used to test electronic and radar communications intercept capabilities. The Pleiades are small, dual-use, high-resolution satellites that will comprise the optical component and work in conjunction with four Italian Cosmo/Skymed radar-equipped satellites. Also in operation is the Syracuse system, a military telecommunications satellite network.

India

In 1962 the Indian government established the Indian National Committee for Space Research (INCOSPAR) to conduct sounding rocket research. As the program grew in the late 1960s INCOSPAR became the Indian Space Research Organization (ISRO), and by 1975 ISRO launched its first satellite, Aryabhata, on a Soviet rocket. In 1980, under the coordination of ISRO, India became the first developing nation to design and launch its own satellite, after the Rohini-1 was launched on a Satellite Launch Vehicle (SLV). Shar Space Launch Center on the Sriharikota Island on India's east coast state of Andhra Pradesh is used by ISRO to launch space satellites on PSLV (Polar SLV) and GSLV (Geostationary SLV) rockets as well as atmospheric sounding Rohini rockets. The Indian space program aimed at the self-reliant development of space technology and its applications for the rapid economic improvement of the country. This has meant a focus on communications satellites to provide critical services, including telemedicine and distance learning; meteorology payloads to improve weather forecasting; remote sensing satellites to identify and map the nation’s natural resources. Although the military has no dedicated satellites for exclusively military operations, certain satellites, such as the Technology Experiment Satellite (TES) launched in 2001 and Cartosat-1 launched in 2005, are dual-use and therefore can be used for both civilian and military applications. Recently ISRO announced plans to develop its own regional satellite navigation system, building the satellites, ground stations, and receivers all within India. ISRO is developing its first planetary science mission, the Chandrayaan-1 lunar orbiter, scheduled for launch in early 2008. Other science missions are in the early planning stages. Those missions include Chandrayaan-2, a second lunar mission, around 2011; a mission to an asteroid or comet in 2015; and a Mars mission in 2019.

Israel

The Israel Space Agency (ISA) was established in 1983. According to Haim Eshed, the head of space programs at the Israeli Defense Ministry, Israel's initial investment in its space program was driven by strategic considerations, especially the ability to observe the activities of other states without violating international law. It is for this reason that the primary focus of Israel's space efforts has been and continues to be the development of high-resolution imaging capabilities. Israel Aircraft Industries (IAI), a major developer of Israeli space technology, designed and constructed the Shavit launcher to place small satellites into low Earth orbit. In 1988, Israel successfully launched a satellite Ofek-1 with Shavit launcher. In 2002, IAI announced plans for its next generation of launchers, called the Leolink line. The Leolink program was started in order to market Israel's launch services, and includes the LK-A, LK-1, and LK-2 launchers that will be able to carry heavier payloads into higher orbits. Israel has three primary satellite families: Eros (remote sensing, dual-use satellites), Ofek (high-resolution imaging satellites, used solely for military intelligence purposes), and Amos (military communications satellite). Israel is currently interested in developing what is considered the next generation of microsatellites and nanosatellites that weigh less than 100 kg and 10 kg, respectively. Scientists at RAFAEL, Israel's Armament Development Authority, are examining technology to launch satellites from F-15 fighter jets. The concept is to upgrade the Black Sparrow missile with a more powerful engine and install a microsatellite in its nose. Israel expects to have this technology available in 2008.

Japan

Japan became the fourth country to launch a satellite on February 11, 1970, with the successful launch of a Lambda 4S-5 rocket carrying Ohsumi, the first Japanese satellite. The Japan Aerospace Exploration Agency (JAXA), created in September 2003 as a merger of three Japanese space agencies, coordinates Japan’s space activities. Japan has one of the most comprehensive national space programs in Asia, including activities that range from space science to preparation for human spaceflights. Japan has established its own telemetry, tracking, and control facilities and plans to integrate the facilities into a single network. Japan is the only country in Asia that participates in the International Space Station program. JAXA plans to launch the Lunar Explorer, SELENE (SELenological and ENgineering Explorer), from Tanegashima Space Center in 2007 using an H-IIA Launch Vehicle. SELENE is the most sophisticated lunar exploration mission in the post-Apollo Era. In 2003, Japan successfully launched the first two imaging reconnaissance satellites, with the primary goal of monitoring North Korea's nuclear and military activities. The full set of four satellites, called the "Information-Gathering Satellite (IGS) Constellation," would enable Japan to monitor any point on Earth at least twice a day. In 2006, the ruling party in Japan signaled its intent to change space policy to include military uses of space, so long as they are limited to defensive measures.

Russian Federation

On October 4, 1957, the USSR became the first nation to loft an artificial moon (Sputnik 1) to orbit above Earth. Now the Russian Federal Space Agency (Roskosmos) oversees civilian space activities, while the Russian Space Forces (VKS) control military satellite launches, space object tracking and military flight control assets. In order to help fund many of its space programs, Russia is focused on furthering its commercial launch prospects by developing more sophisticated, cost-effective technologies and cultivating its international partnerships.

Russia continues to advance its launch vehicle technology in order to increase its share of the commercial launch market. Rockets planned for future use include the Angara, Strela, and Mikron launch vehicles. Russia is currently working on the development of the Clipper spacecraft, which is envisioned to be a reusable space vehicle that would fulfill a role left open between that of the Soyuz and space shuttle manned missions. In plans also the development of the Parom (Ferry) reusable transport system, which will replace the Progress cargo craft.

The Federal Space Program for 2006-2015 (FSP) included the construction of a reusable "Clipper" spacecraft jointly with European countries, and two rocket carriers, the Angara and the Soyuz-2. Under the program, a new module built by the Krunichev Center will be completed, launched, and attached to the Russian segment of the International Space Station. At the end of 2006, the Federal Space Agency began an experiment to prepare for a manned trip to Mars, which would last around 500 days. Through the FSP 2015 program, Russia also plans to increase its share of the space services market by expanding its orbital group. FSP includes more than 20 projects devoted to fundamental scientific research. The Phobos-Grunt project is designed to collect soil samples from Phobos, one of Mars's satellite moons. CORONAS (Complex ORbital Observations Near-Earth of Activity of the Sun) is the research program for study of the Sun and solar-terrestrial connections physics by series of spacecrafts, which provides launching of three solar-oriented satellites onto the near-Earth orbit.

Russia also continues to develop the GLONASS (Global Navigation Satellite System) system. GLONASS is based on a constellation of active satellites which continuously transmit coded signals in two frequency bands, which can be received by users anywhere on the Earth's surface to identify their position and velocity in real time based on ranging measurements.

Ukraine

Ukraine has an extensive history in spacecraft and launch vehicle design and production stemming from its involvement in Soviet-era missile and space programs. Ukraine has developed the Zenit (Zenith), Tsiklon (Cyclone), and Dnepr (Dnipro) rockets and is working on the development of a new lightweight launch vehicle, the Mayak. Ukraine's Earth observation satellites from the Sich series are used for scientific research purposes. Ukraine also plans to launch a microsatellite with Earth observation capabilities to be included within the Sich system.

The National Space Agency of Ukraine oversees Ukraine's space activities, which follow the objectives established in the National Space Program of Ukraine (NSPU) for a 2003-2007 period. The NSPU outlines the main goals, assignments, priorities and methods of maintaining the space activity in Ukraine. The structure of this program is composed of goal-oriented space programs: scientific space research; remote sensing of the Earth; satellite telecommunication systems; development of the ground-based infrastructure for navigation and special information system; space activities in the interests of national security and defense; space complexes; development of base elements and advanced space technologies; development of research, test and production base of the space sector.

USA

On January 31, 1958, the United States became the second nation to launch an artificial moon to orbit above Earth. The satellite, Explorer 1, rode a Jupiter-C rocket from Cape Canaveral. Now the US government civilian space sector is directed by the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA). NASA identifies itself as maintaining four primary activities: aeronautics research, exploration systems, science, and space operations. Major current and planned NASA space projects are: International Space Station, Space Shuttle, THEMIS (Time History of Events and Macroscale Interactions during Substorms) - mission to study geomagnetic substorms; GLAST (Gamma-ray Large Area Space Telescope); STEREO (Solar TErrestrial RElations Observatory); Phoenix Mars Lander; AIM (Aeronomy of Ice in the Mesosphere) - mission to study Polar Mesospheric Clouds; Dawn – a mission to study of two minor planets, Ceres and Vesta. The Dawn Mission is part of NASA's Discovery Program, an initiative for lower-cost, highly focused, rapid-development scientific spacecraft.

The US Department of Defense (DoD) oversees US military space program, which is the largest military space program of any country and included such projects as Space Based Infrared System-High (SBIRS-Н), Transformational Communications Satellite (TSAT), space-based radar system (SBR), Navstar Global Positioning System (GPS). In February 2004, the US Air Force released the Transformation Flight Plan, in which it formally published a list of both planned ASAT and terrestrial strike weapons programs. Specific space weapons programs listed in the plan include: Air Launched Anti-Satellite Missile, Ground Based Laser, Orbital Transfer Vehicle, Space-Based Radio Frequency Energy Weapon, Space Maneuver Vehicle, Space Operations Vehicle, and Hypervelocity Rod Bundles [3].

ESA

The European Space Agency (ESA) was established in 1975 "to shape the development of Europe’s space capability and ensure that investment in space continues to deliver benefits to the citizens of Europe." [4] On December 24, 1979, ESA became the seventh to launch an artificial moon to orbit above Earth. The CAT satellite rode atop a rocket called Ariane in a launch from Kourou space launch complex (French Guiana). Today this complex used by ESA and its commercial space launch arm Arianespace to blast ESA's Ariane rockets. Among ESA’s major space programs are:

· The Aurora Programme, which aims to formulate and then to implement a European long-term plan for the robotic and human exploration of solar system bodies holding promise for traces of life.

· The Future Launchers Preparatory Programme (FLPP), which aims to have a Next Generation Launcher (NGL) operational around 2020.

· Galileo – a global navigation satellite system to provide a highly accurate global positioning service under civilian control.

· Rosetta – a mission to rendezvous with comet 67 P/Churyumov- Gerasimenko.

· SMOS (Soil Moisture and Ocean Salinity) mission has been designed to observe soil moisture over the Earth's landmasses and salinity over the oceans.

Observation satellites that exist or that are being developed nationally by European countries for military purposes include the Helios, Sar-Lupe, Cosmo-Skymed, and Pleiades. Although there is as yet no operational system for exclusive military use at a pan-European level, some satellite sharing and joint production on space projects occur through bilateral agreements. The two primary ESA-EU joint space programs are the Global Monitoring for Environment and Security (GMES) initiative, and the Galileo navigational satellite constellation. Space-related defense projects that are underway in Europe besides GMES and Galileo include the Besoins Operationnels Communs (BOC), which combines rapid and secure information delivery from French, German, and Italian imagery satellites, and the EU Satellite Center (EUSC), which produces and exploits information based on space imagery from several European satellite systems, as well as conducting research and development.

US-Soviet competition in space

From 1957 - when the Soviet Union launched the first artificial satellite, Sputnik- the United States and the Soviet Union were engaged in a heated competition - the Space Race. The Soviet leader Nikita Khrushchev and the American presidents Dwight Eisenhower, John Kennedy, Lyndon Johnson and Richard Nixon all agreed that conquering outer space was very important. Both countries wanted to win—to prove their scientific superiority and to show their military strength. The Space Race was an informal competition between the United States and the Soviet Union that lasted roughly from 1957 to 1975. It involved the parallel efforts by each of those countries to explore outer space with artificial satellites, to send humans into space, and to land people on the Moon. Here is a timeline of key events in the Space Race [5-6].

1957		The first artificial Earth satellite, Sputnik, was launched
1958		The United States launches its first satellite, Explorer I
1959		The USSR probe Luna 1 is the first human-made object to leave Earth's gravity
1959		The Soviet Union launches Luna 2 - the first space probe to hit the moon
1959		The first weather (Vanguard 2) and reconnaissance satellites (Discoverer 4)
1959		The first photo of the far side of the Moon (USSR probe Luna 3)
1959		The Soviet government issues a decree, authorizing a variety of space development programs, including the 8K78 (Molniya) launcher, a closed-cycle engine
1961		Soviet cosmonaut Yuri Gagarin becomes the first person to orbit the Earth
1962		John Glenn, Jr. becomes the first American astronaut to orbit the Earth
1963		The first woman in space is Soviet cosmonaut Valentina Tereshkova
1965		Alexei Leonov conducts the world's first spacewalk during Voskhod-2 mission
1965		US President Lyndon Johnson announced the beginning of the Manned Orbital Laboratory (MOL) project
1965		The first orbital rendezvous (US Gemini 6A/Gemini 7)
1966		Probe lands on another planet – Venus (USSR Venera 3)
1966		US Gemini-8 completes first manual docking with Agena-8
1966		USSR Luna-10, the first spacecraft to orbit the Moon, is launched
1968		The first manned space mission to orbit the moon (US Apollo 8)
1969		US President Nixon established a Space Task Group (STG), considering the future of the US space program
1969		US astronauts Neil Armstrong, Edwin Aldrin and Michael Collins make it to the moon (Apollo 11). Armstrong is the first man to walk on the moon
1970		Luna-17 delivers Lunokhod-1 on the surface of the Moon
1971		The first space station (USSR Salyut 1) was launched
1971		Satellite orbits another planet – Mars (US Mariner 9)
1973		US Saturn-5 rocket launches the Skylab space station
1975		The First US-USSR joint mission (Apollo-Soyuz Test Project)

A case study: the space programs of China and India

The beginnings

India's space program took off in 1962 when the Indian National Committee for Space Research was set up to test rockets. Unlike every other space-faring countries (with the exception of Japan and Europe), India's space capabilities were not born out of an existing military ballistic missile programs, but instead out of the practical goal of eventually having satellite launch capabilities. The Indian space program began establishing itself with the launch of foreign sounding rockets (American, French, British and Russian). The space program development can be categorized under three separate phases - the first phase linked to proof of concept demonstration, the second dealt with the realization of end-to-end systems at an experimental level that led to the current operational phase. [7]

Polar Satellite Launch Vehicle.

http://www.isro.org/Chandrayaan/htmls/launch_vehicle.htm

The first (proof of concept) phase of the Indian space program was characterized by the use of foreign space systems - US satellites ATS-6 in the Satellite Instructional Television Experiment (SITE), Franco-German satellite Symphonie in the Satellite Telecommunication Experimental Project (STEP), and US system Landsat in the earth observation experiment.

The second phase was identified with a goal to derive an end-to-end experience in the realization of space systems where the potential of its use at the national level had already been clearly demonstrated in the proof of concept phase. In this phase two missions, Bhaskara (earth observation satellites) and Apple (satellite communications, including building of a body stabilized geosynchronous satellite), was developed. Also the successful realization of India’s first launch vehicle SLV-3, with a modest payload capability of 40 kg and initiation of the augmented capability version ASLV with 150 kg payload capability took place in this phase.

As opposed to India, the potential military utility of space was the central reason for China embarking on its national space program since 1956. The program was aimed at developing China’s aviation, guided missiles, rockets and missile defenses. In 1956, the Twelve-Year-Plan for Chinese aerospace, also known as Project 581, was established. It was the first Chinese satellite project, with the objective of placing a satellite in orbit by 1959. During the cordial Sino-Soviet relations of the 1950s, the USSR engaged in a cooperative technology transfer program with the PRC under which they trained Chinese students and provided the fledgling program with a sample rocket, but this support was withdrawn after the 1960 Sino-Soviet split.

The PRC continued the program independently and launched their first rocket, based on the Soviet R-2, in late 1960. In 1964 the first indigenous Dongfeng missile was launched. The same technology, adapted into the Long March rocket, was used to launch the PRC's first satellite Dong Fang Hong I (The East Is Red I), in 1970, allowing the PRC to join the space-faring club. Further development of the Long March rocket series allowed the PRC to initiate a commercial launch program in 1985, which has since launched over 30 foreign satellites.

PRC's manned space program started as early as 1968, when it was founded by Tsien Hsue-Shen of the Space Flight Medical Research Centre. Project 714 aimed to put two taikonauts into space by 1973 with the Shuguang-1 spacecraft. The program was officially cancelled on May 13, 1972 for economic reasons.

Timeline

Date	Flag	Event
1958		China sets up the Jiuquan Space Center in remote western Gansu province
1962		Indian National Committee for Space Research (INCOSPAR) formed by the Department of Atomic Energy and work on establishing Thumba Equatorial Rocket Launching Station (TERLS) started
Nov 1963		First sounding rocket launched from TERLS
Jul 1964		A biological rocket carrying rats is launched successfully from Guangde County
1966		China achieved guided missiles
Aug 1969		Indian Space Research Organization was formed
Apr 1970		China sent it’s first satellite into orbit, as the DFH-1 scientific experimental satellite lifts off aboard a Long March rocket
Jun 1972		Space Commission and Department of Space set up; ISRO brought under DOS
Apr 1975		The first Indian satellite Aryabhata was launched by a Soviet booster
Nov 1975		China launches its first recoverable satellite, which returns to earth three days later
1976		Satellite Instructional Television Experiment (SITE) conducted
Jun 1979		Bhaskara-I, an experimental satellite for earth observations, launched
Aug 1979		First launch of SLV-3 with Rohini Technology Payload on board (satellite could not be placed in orbit)
Jul 1980		Second Experimental launch of SLV-3, Rohini satellite successfully placed in orbit
Jun 1981		APPLE, an experimental geostationary communication satellite successfully launched
Apr 1982		The communications satellite INSAT-1A was sent into orbit
1984		China perfects geo-stationary communications satellites
Mar 1987		First developmental launch of ASLV with SROSS-1 satellite (satellite could not be placed in orbit)
Mar 1988		The first operational remote sensing satellite IRS-1A was launched
Sep 1988		China launches meteorological satellite FY-1A at Taiyuan launch base
Apr 1990		A Long March CZ-3 sends AsiaSat-1 communication satellite into orbit, marking the start of China’s commercial launch service
Jul 1990		China launches Long March CZ-2E, a cluster carrier rocket, laying a foundation for manned spacecraft launches
May 1992		Third developmental launch of ASLV with SROSS-C on board (satellite placed in orbit)
Jul 1992		INSAT-2A, the first satellite of the indigenously-built second-generation INSAT series, launched
Oct 1994		First successful developmental launch of PSLV with IRS-P2 on board
Sep 1997		First operational launch of PSLV with IRS-1D on board. Satellite placed in orbit.
Nov 1999		China launched and retrieved the first “Shenzhou” unmanned experimental spacecraft
Jan 2001		Shenzhou-2 experimental spacecraft launches successfully
Apr 2001		The first developmental launch of GSLV-D1 with GSAT-1 on board from Sriharikota
Mar 2002		Shenzhou-3 launches successfully
Dec 2002		Shenzhou-4 launches successfully
Jan 2003		China said that it would send a human into orbit in the second half of 2003
Jan 2003		Indian Prime Minister Atal Behari Vajpayee publicly urged his country’s scientists to work towards sending a man to the moon
May 2003		GSLV-D2, the second developmental launch of GSLV with GSAT-2 successful
Oct 2003		Indian cabinet approved a proposal by space authorities to send an unmanned mission to the moon by 2008
Oct 2003		China launched and retrieved the "Shenzhou V" manned spacecraft
Sep 2004		First operational flight of GSLV (F01) successfully launches EDUSAT
2005		China launches Shenzhen 6 into orbit with two taikonauts for a multi-day experimental mission
May 2005		Launch of CARTOSAT and HAMSAT by PSLV-C6 from the second launch pad (Universal Launch Pad)
Jan 2007		The Space Capsule Recovery Experiment (SRE-1) successfully splashed down in the Bay of Bengal

Present state

“The Indian space program today is a large integrated program, which is self-reliant and applications driven, maintaining vital links to the user community and committed to excellence in scientific endeavours…” [7] By the early nineties, all four major components of the space program - Satellite Communications, Meteorology, Earth Observations and Launch Vehicles - had entered the operational stage. India has established two operational space systems. The Indian National Satellite (INSAT) system, currently made up of nine satellites in orbit is one of the largest domestic satellite communication systems in the world. The four INSAT satellites of the first generation have been bought abroad, but the subsequent three generations of satellites, many of which are currently in service, were all designed and built indigenously. The Indian Remote Sensing satellite (IRS) system, with a constellation of seven satellites, comprises some of the best satellites in the world for generating information on natural resources. Space launch vehicles developed by India are aimed towards providing autonomous launch capability to orbit these classes of satellites. India’s Polar Satellite Launch Vehicle (PSLV) is well proven through successful flights and it provides the capability to orbit remote sensing satellites of the 1.4 tone class in polar sun synchronous orbits. The Geo synchronous Satellite Launch Vehicle (GSLV), capable of launching 2 to 2.5 tone class of INSAT satellites, has been operationalised with three successful flights in a row, making India one of the six countries in the world to demonstrate capabilities for geo-stationary satellite launch.

ISRO has also entered the lucrative market of launching payloads of other nations upon its rockets from Indian soil. For example, the CARTOSAT-II, launched on the July 2006, carries a small Indonesian payload.

China for the past 50 years has achieved outstanding successes in development of the space program. Four satellite series were developed in China: FSW (Fanhui Shei Weixing, Recoverable Test Satellite) recoverable satellites, used initially for military reconnaissance, but later employed for earth resources photography and experiments in crystal and protein growth, cell cultivation and crop breeding; DFH (Dongfanghong) telecommunications satellites; FY (Fengyun) meteorological satellites; SJ (Shijian) scientific research and technological experiment satellites.

In 1992, funding was given for Project 921, which was a plan to launch a manned spacecraft. The Shenzhou program had four unmanned test flights – in 1999, 2001 and two in 2002. Following these was the successful Shenzhou 5, China's first manned mission in space in 2003. Shenzhou 6 followed two years later. Missions are launched on the Long March 2F rocket from the Jiuquan Satellite Launch Center.

China has over the years established three launch sites for its space program – Jiuquan, Taiyuan and Xichang. China's tracking, telemetry and command system (TT&C) was constructed and developed in close step with the development of launch sites. Located entirely within China, this network of optical and radio tracking devices, and radio telemetry and command links was very successful in fulfilling the needs of China's early space program. In the late 1990's the original system was supplemented to support the manned space program of the post-2000 period. New tracking stations were built outside of Chinese territory and agreements were signed with France, Brazil, and Sweden to mutually share tracking stations.

The future plans

India is developing a new heavy launch vehicle, GSLV Mark III, which will incorporate larger versions of proven technology, and be indigenously built. Based around the proven format of liquid main stages and two solid strap-on boosters, it will resemble the Ariane-5 and several other modern launchers. The first flight is scheduled for 2008.

Chandrayaan-1, India's first unmanned moon mission.

http://www.space-travel.com/Space_Travel.html

India also has embarked on an ambitious planetary exploration program, the flagship mission of which is Chandrayaan-1. This mission aims to place a satellite around the Moon at an altitude of about 100 km from the lunar surface for physical and chemical mapping of the lunar surface. The upgraded version of PSLV viz., PSLV-XL which has a liftoff weight of 316 tones, will be used for launching the spacecraft.

Another more long-term project, that has been underway, is the effort to develop a reusable launch vehicle (RLV) for the launch of satellites. A scaled-down technology demonstrator is scheduled to fly around 2008. ISRO is continuing research related to using scramjets in RLVs after 2010.

And finally, ISRO recently announced its intent to send a manned mission to space by 2014. [8] A successful space-capsule recovery experiment has confirmed gravity of its intentions.

In 2004, the PRC formally started the implementation phase of its unmanned Moon exploration project. The project will involve three phases: orbiting the Moon; landing (before 2010); and returning samples (before 2020).

On November 27, 2005, the deputy commander of the manned spaceflight program announced that the PRC planned to complete a space station and a manned mission to the Moon by 2020, assuming funding was approved by the government. Towards that end they intended to perfect space walking and docking by 2012. On June 22, 2006, Long Lehao, deputy chief architect of the lunar probe project, laid out a schedule for China's lunar exploration. He set 2024 as the date of China's first moonwalk [9].

Sun Laiyan, administrator of the China National Space Administration, said on July 20, 2006, that China would start deep space exploration focusing on Mars over the next five years, during the 11th Five-Year (2006-2010) Program period [10]. The first unmanned Mars exploration program should take place between the 2014-2033 period, followed by a manned phase in 2040-2060 [11]. Moreover, in order to make manned flight in deep space toward Mars safer, a space weather forecast system will be completed by 2012 with the Kuafu mission satellites [12].

Space Expenditures

2005-06	~$722 million
2006-07	~$800 million
2007-08	~$1000 million

India’s accumulated space expenditures since inception to the fiscal year ending on March 31, 2006 amounted to US$ 7 billion - 39% investment is on launch vehicles, 36% on satellite communications and meteorology, 14% on earth observations, 6% on space sciences and the balance on other items. [7] The table right presented the annual budget of ISRO (from Wikipedia [13]).

China space program budget remains relatively opaque. China's official documents on space activities do not provide budgetary figures. Expenditures for the Shenzhou V manned space program were estimated to be US$ 120 million and a total cost for China's manned space program up to 2003 and over an 11 year period at approximately US$ 2.15 billion. The China National Space Administrator, Sun Laiyan, disclosed that the development of China's space industry is an annual US$ 240 million. Estimates of China's space activities by western sources vary considerably. Though unsupported by documentation, western media report that China's annual spending on space activities is between US$ 1.3 billion to US$ 3 billion. There are also claims that China has invested tens of billions of dollars in its military-linked space program. Most studies estimate China's space program costing around US$ 1.5 to US$ 2 billion per year. [14]

Resume

Two Asian giants – China and India - for a long time compete among themselves on the ground. Now this rivalry has extended on outer space. Both countries have ambitious space programs and are members of so-called space-faring club. “India, which fought a border war with China in 1962, may be behind in terms of space technology, but is eager to catch up.” [15]

Sudhir Saxena, analyst at New Delhi's Institute for Defence Studies and Analysis, said the focus of space wars had shifted away from the United States and the former Soviet Union to Asia, with China, India and Japan in the fray. "Now you have a new breed of satellites, micro-satellites and the Chinese are targeting all these areas. Indian labor is cheap, scientific manpower is cheap. We are catching up with Chinese on the launch platform," [15] he said.

However recent events can lead to race of arms in space. China's anti-satellite weapon system test on January 11 “comes at a time when the Indian armed forces are slowly moving towards exploitation of space for purposes like "real-time" military communications and reconnaissance missions... With the launch of Cartosat-2 satellite atop the PSLV on January 10, for instance, India's satellite-based surveillance and reconnaissance (SBS) programmme is now finally heading towards completion. It will allow India to keep closer tabs on troop movements, missile silos, military installations and airbases of neighboring countries, as well as augment surveillance over Indian airspace.” [16]

The books that discuss “Conflict in space”

Michael N. Golovine. “Conflict in space; a pattern of war in a new dimension.” Publisher: New York, St. Martin's Press, 1962.

Objective 2 – Treaties and other Agreements

Treaties and agreements that govern uses of space

There are treaties and regulatory arrangements that have a bearing on some aspects of space use [17]. The UN Charter is the foundation upon which most multilateral treaties governing the use of space has been based: “All members shall refrain in their international relations from the threat or use of force against the territorial integrity or political independence of any state, or in any manner inconsistent with the purposes of the UN” [18]. The Declaration of Legal Principles Governing the Activities of States in the Exploration and Uses of Outer Space, adopted in 1963, set forth the basis of international space law.

· 1963 Limited Test Ban Treaty (Treaty Banning Nuclear Weapon Tests in the Atmosphere, in Outer Space and Under Water) [19].
No nuclear explosions are allowed in space, whether as a test or part of an anti-satellite (ASAT) weapons system or as a component of an anti-ballistic (ABM) missile system. Was the first legally binding document containing a specific prohibition of the military use of outer space.

· 1967 Outer Space Treaty (Treaty on the Principles Governing the Activities of States in the Exploration and Use of Outer Space, including the Moon and Other Celestial Bodies) [20].
Originated in the Committee on the Peaceful Uses of Outer Space (COPUOS). Provides that outer space is not subject to national appropriation by claim of sovereignty or other means. Forbids states from any activity that could harmfully interfere the peaceful space activities of other countries. Prohibits the deployment of weapons of mass destruction in orbit, on celestial bodies, or in any other manner in space. Prohibits the establishment of military bases, installations and fortifications on celestial bodies. Prohibits the testing of any type of weapons and the conducting of military maneuvers on celestial bodies. Provides that a state is internationally liable for damage caused by its space objects. The principle of cooperation and mutual assistance shall be followed in space exploration. Harmful contamination of the moon and other celestial bodies shall be avoided. All stations, installations, equipment, and space vehicles on the moon and other celestial bodies shall be open for inspection to representatives of other states on a reciprocal basis. As of 1 January 2006 the treaty has been ratified by 98 States and signed by 27 others.

· 1968 Rescue Agreement (Agreement on the Rescue of Astronauts, the Return of Astronauts and the Return of Objects Launched into Outer Space) [21].
"States shall, upon request, provide assistance to launching states in recovering objects that return to Earth outside the territory of the launching state." As of 1 January 2006 the agreement has been ratified by 88 States and signed by 25 others.

· 1972 Liability Convention (Convention on International Liability for Damage Caused by Space Objects) [22].
Elaborates on Article 7 of the Outer Space Treaty. Provides that a launching State shall be liable to pay compensation for damage caused by its space objects on earth, in air or in space. Provides procedures for settling claims for damages. As of 1 January 2006 has been ratified by 83 States and signed by 25 others.

· 1972 ABM Treaty (Treaty between the United States of America and the Union of Soviet Socialist Republics on the limitation of anti-ballistic missile systems) [23].
US-Russian bilateral treaty which forbade the deployment and testing of ABM systems or components in space. Also forbade parties from interfering with each others' national technical means of verification. Demised in 2002.

· 1976 Registration Convention (Convention on the Registration of Objects Launched into Outer Space) [24].
Provides that states should maintain a national launch registry and transmit information from that registry to a registry that is maintained by the UN. As of 1 January 2006 has been ratified by 46 States and signed by 4 others.

· 1979 Moon Agreement (Agreement Governing the Activities of States on the Moon and Other Celestial Bodies) [25].
Describes the moon and its natural resources as the common heritage of mankind and it reserves the moon for exclusively peaceful purposes. It bars the emplacement of nuclear or other weapons of mass destruction on the moon and also prohibits the placing in orbit, or in any other trajectory to or around the moon, of objects carrying such weapons and the establishment of military bases, the testing of any type of weapons, and the conduct of military activities on the moon. As of 1 January 2006 has been ratified by 12 States and signed by 4 others.

The UN General Assembly has adopted three more sets of principles based on the work of the Committee on the Peaceful Uses of Outer Space:

· The Principles Governing the Use by States of Artificial Earth Satellites for International Direct Television Broadcasting, adopted in 1982 considers political, social, economic and cultural implications of broadcasting services.

· The Principle Relating to Remote Sensing of the Earth from Space adopted in 1986 provide for international cooperation and participation in remote sensing; they specify that such activities will be permitted without the consent of the states being sensed but that the latter will have the right to receive data and information concerning their resources.

· The Principles Relevant to the Use of Nuclear Power Sources in Outer Space, adopted in 1992, requires design of such systems to minimize radiation exposure in case of accident. They provide guidelines and criteria for safe use of nuclear power sources in outer space, including the requirement that a safety review be made prior to launching of any nuclear power source and that results of such review be made public through the Secretary-General of the United Nations, who should also be notified of any re-entry of radioactive materials to the earth.

Beyond this, there are some relevant international agreements and declarations:

· 1971 Agreement Relating to the International Telecommunications Satellite Organization "Intelsat".

· 1985 Convention On The International Maritime Satellite Organization (INMARSAT) with Annex and Operating Agreement (1976); as amended 1985; with Protocol (1981).

· In 1994, the United Nations Economic and Social Commission for Asia and the Pacific (ESCAP) adopted the Beijing declaration on space technology applications for environmentally sound and sustainable development in Asia and the Pacific. This declaration proposed a cooperative program of space activities including satellite meteorology, remote sensing, communications and education. A review of the ESCAP efforts occurs in 1999.

· Declaration on International Cooperation in the Exploration and Use of Outer Space for the Benefit and in the Interest of All States, Taking into Particular Account the Needs of Developing Countries was adopted in 1996.

· 1998 Commercial Space Act promotes commercial space opportunities and established the construction of the ISS as a priority goal of national policy in the economic development of Earth orbital space.

The space legislation is necessary for improving

Although the current international legal instruments concerning outer space do, to some extent, prohibit and restrict the deployment of weapons, use of force as well as military activities in certain parts of space, the related provisions contained in them are seen by some states to be limited in scope and therefore inadequate for preventing weaponization of outer space.

There is little progress towards treaties in this area. One obstacle is a lack of US support. The new US space policy says the US will “oppose the development of new legal regimes ... that seek to prohibit or limit US access to or use of space.” [26] There is also uncertainty over what such a treaty should cover: for example whether it should prohibit space-based weapons, or any use of force against space-based objects (even from the ground). How to verify compliance with such a treaty is also unclear.

However, the progress of science and technology could make it necessary to strengthen the existing international legal system. There have been several suggestions on how to move forward. The Weapons of Mass Destruction Commission (WMDC) recommended a review conference of the Outer Space Treaty which could extend its scope and strengthen the Treaty. Another suggested step could the establishment of rules of the road (general practice and procedures) in outer space or confidence building measures.

PAROS

There are a number of states arguing for the creation of a completely new treaty - a PAROS (Prevention of an Arms Race in Outer Space) Treaty [27]. In 1985, the Conference on Disarmament (CD) established a subsidiary body to deal with this topic. This committee analyzed issues and terminology, and examined existing and new agreements and proposals. However, from 1985 to 1994 the committee faced a number of challenges that prevented it from negotiating any new measures. Consensus is lacking within the CD regarding the specific mandate of any committee to do goal oriented work, as certain countries believe that it is not yet time for negotiations due to national security concerns.

There are some states that seem unwilling to cooperate with the international community on the issue of PAROS. The United States and Israel have consistently abstained during voting on the PAROS draft resolutions in First Committee. The US argues that the existing multilateral arms control regime is sufficient, and that there is no need to address a non existent threat. The US said in the CD on June 13, 2006, "there is no - repeat, no- problem in outer space for arms control to solve." The United Kingdom does not want to recognize the importance of a treaty that prevents weaponization in outer space since there are no weapons in outer space yet. Sri Lanka brought up the importance of preventing an arms race by stating "Can we really afford an expensive competition in outer space when there remain so many other challenges before as such as poverty, hunger, disease and deprivation?" And many states expressed that it is a much easier task to prevent an arms race in outer space then to control it once started.

The United States argues that the inability to define space weapons is the main barrier to a treaty that prevents them. Russia and China have produced a working paper where they discuss definitions of related concepts like Outer Space, Space Weapons, Space Objects and Peaceful Use of Outer Space. They also points out that a future PAROS treaty might not need specific definitions, as it would be so difficult to reach agreement on them. The Outer Space Treaty and the Moon Agreement do not have specific definitions and this has not lead to any legal disputes.

Moon Agreement

The Moon Agreement has not been ratified by the space powers (except France). One key reason is that the treaty outlaws military bases on the moon, and also outlaws any nation, corporation, or individual from making land "claims" on the planetary body.

The Moon Treaty placed limitations on national sovereignty: "The moon is not subject to national appropriation" and "the placement of personnel, space vehicles, equipment, facilities, stations and installation on or below the surface of the Moon... shall not create a right of ownership." Article 11 of the Moon Treaty directs the establishment of an international regime, whose purposes are: the orderly and safe development of the natural resources of the moon; the rational management of those resources; the expansion of opportunities in the use of those resources; and an equitable sharing by all States-Parties in the benefits derived from those resources. The "common heritage of mankind" would thus require an international consortium to monitor and hold accountable actions with potential consequence towards any other State.

Obviously, it is the criteria for exploitation of natural resources found on the moon, Mars and other celestial bodies that is of the greatest practical interest. In the foreseeable future, Mars and perhaps its two satellites will be the only sources of usable resources for space researchers or colonists, until we are able to reach the nearest earth-asteroid for mining. By not signing the Moon Treaty, the USA and Russia/USSR tried to set a precedent for the possible future commercialization of space that most likely will occur in the 21^st Century.

Most scientists also do not want to recognize the Moon Treaty for fear that it would inadvertently prevent our expansion into space if no economic benefits can be derived. The Moon Treaty, however, does not place a moratorium on exploitation of natural resources, but insists upon the establishment of an international regime to monitor and control such exploitation. In fact, mining could be begun on an experimental basis even while clearer rules are established and eventually made law. But what is at question here, if taken literally, is the "common heritage of mankind" clause which indicates that if exploitation does commence, all nations should have a share in the proceeds.

Monitoring and verification of compliance with space treaties

Appropriate, feasible and effective verification could play an important role in ensuring faithful observance and implementation of a treaty. It could also help boost the confidence of each and every State Party to a treaty. But verification of a space treaty is difficult according to many states. China stated in the Conference on Disarmament (CD) about "the complex nature of verification of outer space activities, which bears on the security interest of all countries, as well as to technical and financial constraints of verification". Russia concurred, "Transparency and Confidence Building Measures could, for a certain period of time, compensate for the lack of verification measures…" Transparency and Confidence Building Measures are a good step towards enhancing trust and international cooperation amongst states. They facilitate management of situations which could otherwise lead to international tension. Most states acknowledge that Confidence Building Measures do not replace verification but may function as a start to a step-by-step approach on preventing the weaponization of outer space. A working paper was presented by Russia and China to the CD, suggesting different types of Confidence Building Measures including: exchanges of information, demonstrations, notifications, consultations and thematic workshops.

Verification measures envisaged by various sides up to now can be divided roughly into two categories:

1. Remote-sensing survey:

• Outer space to outer space survey, which means using satellites to monitor the activities of outer space objects;
• Outer space to the earth survey, which refers to, for example, using satellites to monitor the activities of space vehicles on the Earth and in the Earth's atmosphere;
• The Earth to outer space survey, which means, for example, using ground-based facilities to monitor the activities of outer space targets.

2. On-site inspections:

• Inspections of relevant space research laboratories on the ground to find out whether or not research on weapons intended to be deployed in outer space or weapons targeting outer space objects intended to be deployed is going on;
• Verification of objects intended to be launched at space rockets launching sites to see whether they are weapons or whether there are weapons on board.

More specifically, the following ideas have been proposed:

· Establishing an international satellite monitoring agency to verify the observance of certain bilateral agreements and to monitor crisis situations (proposed by France);

· Seeking satisfactory verification measures for the prevention of an arms race in outer space and conducting direct international verifications, including on-site verifications under any possible circumstances (proposed by Sweden in 1985);

· Setting up a PAXSAT (Pax Satellite) system to conduct verifications through space based remote-sensing survey (proposed by Canada in 1984);

· Establishing an international space monitoring agency (proposed by the former Soviet Union);

· Forming an international observer team to ensure the absence of deployment of weapons in outer space. The team will dispatch permanent observers to each space-launching site worldwide to ensure that no weapons will be deployed in outer space. To this end, prior to each launch, the following information should be submitted in due course to members of the observer team: the venue and timing of the launch, the type of the launching vehicle, and general information concerning launching objects (proposed by the Soviet Union in 1983);

· Verifying laboratories which conduct outer space research (proposed by the Soviet Union in 1986. In 1986, the United States tabled a similar proposal at the Conference on Disarmament).

Operational monitoring of compliance with space treaties would include the full array of open literature searches, technical and intelligence monitoring and information sharing worldwide, and notification of violation.

Certainly monitoring is impossible without use of corresponding technical means and information systems. Space surveillance systems which can track launches of vehicles and their moving in space are necessary. Such systems already for a long time are used by militaries.

The US Space Surveillance Network (SSN) is operated by US Army, Navy, and Air Force personnel and comprised of radars and optical sensors at 25 sites worldwide, as well as one dedicated on-orbit satellite. The SSN can track objects in LEO with a radar cross-section of 5 centimeters in diameter or greater. The system makes up to 80,000 observations daily. In order to be able to keep track of everything once it's detected, the 1st Command and Control Squadron (1st CACS) maintains a catalog (SATCAT) of all space objects orbiting the earth (and some beyond) which are ten centimeters or larger in size. Over the years, they have catalogued almost 25,000 objects.

Russia also has a Space Surveillance System (SSS), which functions using Russia’s early warning radars in space and more than 20 optical and electrooptical facilities at 14 locations on Earth. The main optical observation system, Okno, allows detection of objects up to 40,000 kilometers, although its capacity to detect smaller objects is unclear. The network as a whole carries out some 50,000 observations daily, contributing to a catalogue of approximately 5,000 objects, mostly in LEO. Furthermore, while information from the system is not classified, Russia does not have a formal system in place for widely disseminating information about observations.

Objective 3 – Non-Treaty approaches to Space Security

Space-based defenses

In Benchmark I we have defined the “space-based defense” as military defense using some space systems. Now we shall examine some kinds of modern and perspective systems used in space-based defenses.

SBIRS

The US Space Based Infrared System (SBIRS) [28] is a global satellite system designed to meet the United States' infrared space surveillance requirements over the next 20 to 30 years. The system addresses critical warfighter requirements in the areas of missile warning, missile defense, technical intelligence, and battlespace characterization. The SBIRS program consists of high altitude (SBIRS High) and low altitude (SBIRS Low) components. SBIR High includes satellites in Geosynchronous Earth Orbits (GEO) and Infrared (IR) sensors on satellites in Highly Elliptical Earth Orbits (HEO). SBIRS Low includes sensors on satellites in Low Earth Orbits (LEO). SBIRS will be controlled from the ground through a number of ground assets. Its ground assets include: a CONUS-based Mission Control Station (MCS); a backup MCS; a survivable MCS possibly located with the Mobile Consolidated Command Center (MCCC); overseas Relay Ground Stations; Relocatable Terminals; and other associated communications links.

SBIRS Low could augment the space surveillance mission area by using its sensors for detecting and tracking space objects above the horizon. The number of sensors in the constellation would permit routine stereoscopic viewing and offer almost comprehensive instantaneous field of regard, 24 hours a day. The LEO satellites compliment the SBIR High element by providing a unique precision mid-course tracking and discrimination capability critical for effective ballistic missile defense. In addition, the LEO element provides an enhanced capability for missile warning, technical intelligence, and battlespace characterization.

DMSP

DMSP satellite.

http://www.ngdc.noaa.gov/dmsp/dmsp.html

The DMSP (Defense Meteorological Satellite Program) [29] is a US DoD program run by the Air Force Space and Missile Systems Center (SMC). The DMSP designs, builds, launches, and maintains satellites monitoring the meteorological, oceanographic, and solar-terrestrial physics environments. Each DMSP satellite has a sun-synchronous near-polar orbit at an altitude of 830km above the surface of the earth. The data from the DMSP satellites are received and used at operational centers continuously. The data are sent to the National Geophysical Data Center's Solar Terrestrial Physics Division Earth Observation Group (NGDC/STP/EOG) by the Air Force Weather Agency (AFWA) for creation of an archive. Currently, data from 4 satellites (3 day/night, 1 dawn/dusk) are added to the archive each day.

MSX

MSX system.

http://www.jhuapl.edu/cedac

The Midcourse Space Experiment (MSX) [30] is a US Ballistic Missile Defense Organization project which offers major benefits for both the defense and civilian sectors: 1) MSX experiments are providing critical, first-time observations of missile target signatures against Earth-limb, auroral-, and celestial-cluttered backgrounds; 2) MSX will aid future spacecraft design by monitoring on-orbit contamination of optical instruments; 3) MSX investigation of the composition of Earth's atmosphere is increasing our understanding of our environment.

Loaded with innovative sensors and related technologies, MSX was the first space demonstration of technology to identify and track ballistic missile signatures during the midcourse phase of flight – the time between booster burnout and missile reentry. Designers of future operational space and ground-based surveillance and tracking systems require simultaneous, wideband optical data on midcourse missile flight. Since successfully completing that yearlong assignment in 1997, the spacecraft has been transitioned to the Air Force, for which it continues to track objects in geosynchronous orbits.

NFIRE

NFIRE satellite.

http://www.skyrocket.de/space/doc_sdat/nfire.htm

The Near-Field Infrared Experiment (NFIRE) satellite is designed to gather information on missiles during the first few minutes of their flight. “That will allow it to get a close-up view of a burning ICBM at conditions that are truly real world,” [31] according to a Missile Defense Agency (MDA) official.

MDA initially planned to launch two ballistic missiles toward the NFIRE satellite, allowing it to view and collect infrared data about the missile in flight. The first ballistic missile would pass within 20 kilometers of the satellite, the second within 4 kilometers. The NFIRE payload was to include a Generation-2 kill vehicle that the satellite would fire at the ballistic missile when it closes within 4 kilometers.

Space-Based Test Bed

The space-based interceptor test bed is a US military program to develop and test miniaturized missile defense interceptors based in space. The Space Test Bed would consist of several satellites and would be used for experiments including attempts to destroy medium- and intercontinental-range target missiles by ramming them. MDA will decide in 2008 whether to build and launch satellites for a series of space-based test intercepts, with the first experiments expected in 2010-2011. The defense budget contains $10.6 million to begin this effort. By 2012, MDA expects the test bed to comprise a thin constellation of three to six spacecraft in orbit to test the functionality of a space based BMDS (Ballistic Missile Defense System).

Spirale

Spirale [32] (French acronym for "Preparatory System for IR Early Warning") is the French national program for the design and production of a space based optical early warning system demonstrator. The demonstrator covers the supply and operation of a complete system able to collect and analyze infrared imagery against a land background, in order to detect ballistic missiles during their boost phase, just after launch. The space segment consists of two 120 kg class micro-satellites operating in an elliptical orbit, due to be launched by Ariane 5 in 2008. The first of its kind in Europe, this demonstrator program will pave the way for a future operational, early warning optical space program. It will form a strategic link in an anti-ballistic missile defense system and will also contribute to other operational missions, such as proliferation monitoring.

Space Based Laser

Space Based Laser.

http://www.fas.org/spp/starwars/program/sbl-image1-s.jpg

The Space Based Laser (SBL) is being designed to operate in Low Earth Orbit and destroy hostile ballistic missiles during their boost phase of flight. An SBL platform would achieve missile interception by focusing and maintaining a high powered laser on a target until it achieves catastrophic destruction. Energy for the sustained laser burst is generated by the chemical reaction of the hydrogen fluoride (HF) molecule. The HF molecules are created in an excited state from which the subsequent optical energy is drawn by an optical resonator surrounding the gain generator. The technology for this weapon is still in the very early stages of development and the program has been beset by delays and difficulties. Although MDA closed its SBL program office and canceled a test of the system scheduled for 2012, SBL related work may be continuing as a classified program of MDA.

Kinetic kill vehicle (KKV)

Several types of space-based kinetic missile defenses have been considered in the past 15 years. The GPALS (Global Protection Against Limited Strikes) missile defense system was intended to include a constellation of 1,000 Brilliant Pebble kill vehicles. These small satellites were intended to intercept missile warheads during the midcourse phase of their flight. The system currently under development is intended to attack a missile during its boost phase.

As part of this system, satellite kill vehicles would be placed in orbit where they would remain until a missile launch was detected. A kill vehicle near the missile launch site would then use its on-board propulsion and sensors to accelerate out of its orbit and home on the missile, attempting to destroy it by direct impact.

Space-based defense timeline

1963: The USA has put into orbit the first satellite, capable to find out a point of nuclear explosion.

1967: The USSR puts into orbit satellite Kosmos-139, capable to destroy enemy space vehicles.

1971: The USA begin the program of creation of systems of a military satellite communication.

Mar 1983: US President Reagan announces that the US will start an expanded research and development program of missile defense system. His idea becomes the "Strategic Defense Initiative," or SDI. Opponents call it "Star Wars."

Jan 1984: US President’s directive established the SDI to explore the possibility of developing missile defenses as an alternative means of deterring nuclear war. The emphasis in the program was to be on non-nuclear developments, although research work on defensive nuclear devices was to continue "as a hedge against a Soviet ABM breakout."

Jun 1984: The US Army demonstrated hit-to-kill capability in the Homing Overlay Experiment (HOE).

Sep 1986: Completed the Delta 180 experiment. During this experiment, SDIO completed what was the first equivalent of a boost phase intercept of a target.

Nov 1986: The formation of the concept for Brilliant Pebbles, a space-based interceptor design.

Jul 1987: SDIO developed a national missile defense concept called the Strategic Defense System Phase I Architecture. This concept consisted of ground and space based sensors and weapons, as well as a central battle management system.

1988: Successful hover testing was completed and demonstrated successful integration of the sensor and propulsion systems in the prototype Space-Based Interceptor (SBI).

Mar 1989: Delta 183 launch vehicle lifts off, carrying a satellite known as Delta Star to test several sensor related technologies. The satellite observed several ballistic missile launches including some releasing liquid propellant as a countermeasure to detection.

Feb 1990: The Relay mirror experiment (RME) demonstrated critical technologies for space-based relay mirrors to be used with an SDI Directed-energy weapon system.

Jan 1991: President Bush shifted the focus of SDI from defense of North America against large scale strikes to a system focusing on theater missile defense called Global Protection Against Limited Strikes (GPALS).

May 1993: The Strategic Defense Initiative Organization was being redesigned to the Ballistic Missile Defense Organization (BMDO).

1994: The Brilliant Pebbles program was canceled by the BMDO.

Jun 1997: First fly-by test of the Boeing/TRW exoatmospheric kill vehicle.

Feb 1999: The US Air Force canceled its contracts with TRW Inc. and Boeing Co. to design and develop the prototype satellites for SBIRS-low.

Defense or Offense?

Some of the space-based systems being developed for defense purposes have ASAT capabilities and can be used as weapons.

For example, let’s consider two US programs – Space Based Laser (SBL) and Kinetic Kill Vehicle (KKV). There has already been much talk of the SBL’s capabilities outside of missile defense. In particular, planners have commented on its potential usefulness in allowing force projection from space. Colonel William N. McCasland, system program director for the SBL, indicated that the system could enable the US military to “deny access to space”, “deny information to/from satellites” and engage in “defensive/offensive counter-air operations.” [33] Military planners have even suggested that SBLs could form the replacement for the B-2A Spirit bomber, using directed energy to destroy ground based targets. [34] In a similar manner, any KKV system could easily be altered to offensively threaten the satellite and space networks of other nations. The continued development of these space systems seriously undermines the claim that the US missile defense project is purely defensive in nature. Instead, the dual use capability of both the SBL and KKV makes them inherently threatening to the space assets and national security of other countries. Furthermore, deployment of such systems would create a new arena for a costly and potentially dangerous arms race. Among the arguments against space-based defenses in particular is that they would create orbital debris that poses a threat to operational satellites, and that an effective shield would require an unaffordable constellation of thousands of interceptors. In study, performed by the American Physical Society, noted that a constellation of at least 800 to 1,600 interceptors would be needed to provide a limited measure of protection against just Iran and North Korea. The study assumed an attack scenario involving only one ICBM fired at the United States. A far larger constellation would be needed to provide even a limited defense against a salvo of missiles [35].

Space-based defenses and existing treaties and agreements

At the moment there are only a few treaties that govern the use of space. However, there are only three treaties that deal with space security issues: the Outer Space Treaty, which bans the deployment of weapons of mass destruction (WMD) in space; the Limited Test Ban Treaty that prohibits the testing of nuclear weapons in space; and the Missile Technology Control Regime (MTCR). The MTCR, which is actually an export control protocol, is signed by leading space-faring nations in order to prevent proliferation of rocket technologies beyond a closed circle of countries already in possession of them. The Moon Agreement expands upon the provisions of the Outer Space Treaty by also prohibiting any threat or use of force, any other hostile act or threat of hostile act on the Moon (or other celestial bodies in the solar system) and any use of the Moon (or other celestial bodies in the solar system) in order to commit such acts or threats in relation to the Earth, the Moon, spacecraft, personnel of spacecraft or man-made space objects.

Since the demise of the US-Russian Anti Ballistic Missile Treaty (which focused on limiting the testing and deployment of anti-ballistic missile defenses), there are no rules for space that actually prohibit conventional weaponization or the use of lasers and other dual-use technologies for military ends. Even anti-satellite weapons are not legally banned.

Modern space-based defenses not utilize nuclear weapons or weapons of mass destruction and consequently they not violate existing treaties and agreements.

Cooperation in space: the International Space Station

Space exploration offers the nations the chance to leave the history of warfare behind and work together toward a new, peaceful age. The new world order could well be symbolized by cooperating in the space arena.

The ISS photographed from the approaching Space Shuttle Endeavour. The Soyuz spacecraft, which taxied the Expedition 1 crew is partially out of the frame at left.

http://ipp.nasa.gov/innovation/Innovation_86/cvrstry.html

The International Space Station (ISS) is the largest and most complex international space project in history. It stands as a global partnership of many nations. ISS is not only an important facility which significantly promotes space activities worldwide, but is also a symbol of international cooperation and the worldwide peace. Led by the United States, the ISS draws upon the scientific and technological resources of 16 nations: United States, Russia, Japan, Canada, Belgium, Denmark, France, Germany, Italy, Netherlands, Norway, Spain, Sweden, Switzerland, the United Kingdom, and Brazil. When completed, the station will include six laboratories and provide more space for research than any spacecraft ever built. A lot of space flights and at least three space vehicles - the US Space Shuttle, the Russian Soyuz rocket and the Russian Proton rocket - will deliver the various space station components to Earth orbit. The United States and Russia have partnered in space together since 1994, performing nine dockings between the Space Shuttle and the Russian space station, Mir, during 1994-1998. The Shuttle-Mir program provided valuable insight for both sides and made an important contribution to US and Russian cooperation on the ISS.

As NASA describes it, the ISS "will provide an orbital laboratory for long-term research, where one of the fundamental forces of nature – gravity - is greatly reduced [and where] world class research in biology, chemistry, physics, ecology and medicine can be conducted using the most modern tools available." [36] It aims to provide a venue for researchers from around the world to conduct experiments in microgravity, life science, space science, earth sciences, engineering research and technology, and commercial product development. To this end, the nations that are participating in the ISS are working to 1) Find solutions to crucial problems in medicine, ecology and other areas of science; 2) Lay the foundation for developing space-based commerce and enterprise; 3) Create greater worldwide demand for space-related education at all levels by cultivating the excitement, wonder and discovery that the ISS symbolizes; and 4) Foster world peace through high-profile, long-term international cooperation in space.

As part of the Commercialization of space research on the ISS, industries will participate in ISS research by conducting experiments and studies aimed at developing new products and services. The results may benefit those on Earth not only by providing innovative new products as a result, but also by creating new jobs to make the products.

Objective 4 – Issues of Accountability

Organizations that monitor outer space activities

A registry of launchings has been maintained by the United Nations Secretariat since 1962, in accordance with General Assembly resolution. Information contained therein is provided on a voluntary basis by Member States and also issued in United Nations documents. In addition, the Registration Convention of 1976 requires States Parties to maintain an appropriate registry of space objects they launch into outer space, and further to transmit certain information concerning each space object carried on their registries to the United Nations Secretary-General. The United Nations Secretariat maintains a second register in which this information is recorded and to which there is full and open access [37]. Aside from the United Nations, various space agencies and organizations around the world monitor, record and track objects launched into outer space. Some registers available online in Internet:

· The official US Registry of Space Objects Launched into Outer Space [38] is maintained by the Space and Advanced Technology (SAT) Staff, which is located within the Department of State’s Bureau of Oceans and International Environmental and Scientific Affairs.

· The official UK Registry of Space Objects is maintained by the British National Space Centre (BNSC) [39].

· World Data Center for Satellite Information (WDC SI) is hosted by NASA's National Space Science Data Center. WDC SI has responsibilities for spacecraft launch and other descriptive information capture and dissemination. WDC SI serves as a conduit for requests from the international community for data from the NSSDC data archives. NSSDC/WDC SI is an archival center for science data from many spacecraft. The SPACEWARN Bulletin is intended to serve as an international communication mechanism for the rapid distribution of information on satellites and space probes. The material it contains is based on guidelines in "COSPAR Guide to Rocket and Satellite Information and Data Exchange" and various Committee on Space Research (COSPAR) resolutions. The SPACEWARN Bulletin is issued on the first of each month and provides a listing of launches and brief details of each launch from the preceding month. Back issues of the SPACEWARN Bulletin are available online at [40].

The international organizations which trace activity in space:

· United Nations Committee on the Peaceful Uses of Outer Space
The Committee on the Peaceful Uses of Outer Space (COPUOS) [41] was set up by the General Assembly in 1959 to review the scope of international cooperation in peaceful uses of outer space, to devise programs in this field to be undertaken under United Nations auspices, to encourage continued research and the dissemination of information on outer space matters, and to study legal problems arising from the exploration of outer space.

· Conference on Disarmament
Between 1985 and 1994, the Conference on Disarmament (CD) [42] created an Ad Hoc Committee on PAROS. The CD delegations studied various ways and means of addressing the security challenges posed by human activity in outer space. UN Document A/48/305, Prevention of an Arms Race in Outer Space Study on the Application of Confidence-Building Measures in Outer Space (15 October 1993) reports on various confidence-building measures considered by the international community over that period. The Conference on Disarmament has not been able to agree on the formation of an Ad Hoc Committee with a mandate for outer space since 1994. This year, the CD has held a focused and structured debate on PAROS during its second session under the Russian Presidency.

· General Assembly First Committee for Disarmament and International Security
The First Committee on Disarmament and International Security [43] meets every year in October for a 4-5 week session, after the General Assembly General Debate. At each meeting Disarmament Counselors and Ambassadors read statements on General or Thematic issues, propose draft resolutions, and vote on the resolutions. All 191 member states of the UN can attend. There is generally an annual PAROS resolution up for vote; some years addition resolutions related to outer space are proposed and voted on.

· General Assembly Fourth Committee on Special Political and Decolonization
The Committee [44] has played a crucial role in advancing space cooperation and provides a unique opportunity for the exchange of information among governments on the latest developments in the use and exploration of outer space. The fourth committee could be a better forum to work on preventing the weaponization of space than the first committee since the framework of this committee is based on development instead of security and there are more actors using space for development purposes than for military ones. The 4th Committee meets every year for a four or five week session following the General Assembly General Debate and is comprised of all UN member states.

· International Telecommunication Union (ITU)
ITU [45] is international organization within the United Nations System where governments and the private sector coordinate global telecom networks and services. The ITU plays a vital role in the management of the radio-frequency spectrum and satellite orbits, finite natural resources which are increasingly in demand from a large number of services.

· Committee on Space Research (COSPAR)
COSPAR [46] is a scientific committee of the International Council of Scientific Unions (ICSU). Its objectives are to promote on an international level scientific research in space, with emphasis on the exchange of results, information and opinions, and to provide a forum, open to all scientists, for the discussion of problems that may affect scientific space research. These objectives are achieved through the organization of Scientific Assemblies, publications and other means. Space Research Today, COSPAR's information bulletin, published three times a year by Elsevier Science, provides reports on COSPAR and other meetings, scientific space mission news, articles from space organizations and Associates, book reviews, etc.

Competition for the orbital slots

In 1957, the first artificial satellite, Sputnik-1, was launched and it was the beginning of the space age. Today’s satellites operate in three basic orbital bands: Low Earth Orbit (LEO, 100-1500 km),

Medium Earth Orbit (MEO, 5000-10000 km), and Geosynchronous Orbit (about 36000 km). Highly Elliptical Orbit (HEO) is also increasingly being used for specific applications, such as early warning satellites.

For a given orbit, a satellite must travel at a specific orbital velocity to maintain its altitude. At geosynchronous orbit this velocity is such that satellites orbit the earth once in 24 hours. If the inclination - the angle between the orbital plane and the equatorial plane - of a geosynchronous orbit is zero (or near zero) then the satellite remains stationary over the same point on the Earth’s surface. Such an orbit is known as a Geostationary Orbit (GEO). An advantage of the GEO is that antennas on the ground, once aimed at the satellite, need not continue to rotate. Another advantage is that a satellite in this type of orbit continuously sees about one-third of Earth.

The geostationary orbit was first popularized by science fiction author Arthur C. Clarke in 1945 as a useful orbit for communications satellites. As a result this is sometimes referred to as the Clarke orbit. Similarly, the Clarke Belt is the part of space approximately 35,786 km above mean sea level in the plane of the equator where near-geostationary orbits may be achieved.

GEO satellites must generate high-power transmissions to deliver a strong signal to Earth, due to distance concerns and the use of high bandwidth signals for television or broadband applications. In order to avoid radio frequency interference, GEO satellites are required to maintain at least two degrees of orbital separation, depending on what band they are using to transmit and receive signals, and the field of view of their ground antennas. This means that a maximum of 180 satellites could occupy the GEO.

Actors who wish to place a satellite in GEO must obtain an “orbital slot” in which to do so and secure a portion of the radio frequency spectrum to carry their satellite communications. Both radio spectrum and orbital slot assignments are coordinated through the International Telecommunication Union (ITU) and recognized by the ITU Convention as “limited natural resources” given their finite number. The ITU Convention states that radio frequencies and GEO “must be used efficiently and economically so that countries or groups of countries may have equitable access to both.” In the case of the GEO orbit slots allocated by the ITU, the principle has been interpreted as meaning that such positions should be made available on a first-come first-served basis.

Over the years, this increased demand has resulted in greater competition, motivating some space actors to file requests for orbital slots prematurely and/or in greater quantity than necessary. One example of the type of conflicts this can cause occurred in 1992, when the Indonesian Pacific Satellite Nusantara (PSN) company placed a satellite into a vacant GEO slot which was registered to Tonga. Indonesia refused to abide by the ITU ruling granting Tonga the slot, or to recognize Tonga’s leasing arrangements. The dispute escalated in July 1993, when a US firm leased the slot from Tonga and orbited a satellite into position. In 1996, Tonga leased the same slot to a Chinese company, which prompted PSN to jam the satellite. Ultimately the 1998 Asian financial crisis forced PSN to abandon its project. Perhaps most worrisome is that Indonesia consistently refused to acknowledge the right of the ITU to grant slots, while the ITU was incapable of stopping Indonesia’s actions.

There are measures which can help reduce the problem of competition for orbital slots and mitigate signal interference:

· Reduction of the slot’s size. The two-degree spacing requirement only applies to satellites that wish to use the same frequency. Satellites with different frequencies can be spaced as little as one tenth of a degree away from one another.

· Using the “hot bird” slots. Some satellite operators have begun stacking satellites in the same orbital slot (often known as “hot bird” slots) to be able to provide more service. For example, the 91-92 degrees West slot in GEO houses a Brazilsat, two Galaxy satellites, and a Canadian Nimiq satellite.

· Some actors agreed to exchange or share rights to certain slots. For example, Telesat Canada agreed to allow a DirecTV satellite to move into one of its slots in exchange for Telesat Canada's use of a DirecTV satellite in another orbital slot.

The problem of allocation orbital slots directly connected with the problem of space debris. As of 1 January 2005, there were 1,124 objects with a cross-section of more than 1 m catalogued in the geostationary region and its immediate vicinity. Of these, only 346 are operational satellites. Debris can drift inside an operating satellite’s orbital “box”. An explosion in the vicinity of geostationary orbit can have catastrophic consequences, generating new debris and posing new collision hazards. Measures to mitigate debris in this orbit are therefore an absolute and urgent necessity. Mitigation measures, recommended by IADC (Inter-Agency Space Debris Coordination Committee) [47], are relatively simple and can be achieved at a moderate cost. They consist in boosting end-of-life objects to about 300 km above GEO, then passivating them to avert future risks of explosion. Some operators are applying such measures already to free up slots occupied by old satellites for new ones. However, uptake of mitigation measures is still relatively slow, with only 1/3 of operators performing end-of-life reorbiting operations in full compliance with IADC rules. Another 1/3 go no further than partially reorbiting a satellite to ensure it does not interfere with others in geostationary orbit. And the remaining 1/3 do nothing at all: when their satellites run out of fuel, they simply discard them in space, with the obvious consequences.

There are strong incentives for space actors to cooperate in the allocation and use of orbital slots — namely confidence in the sustainability of their use. Cooperation in this area can also strengthen support for the application of the rule of law to broader space security issues.

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