CRITICAL ISSUES FORUM
BENCHMARK III
SPACE: FORUM FOR COOPERAION OR
NEXT FRONTIER FOR WMD PROLIFERATION
The Author: Zhanna Prasolova
Form 10A
Municipal Linguistic Gymnasia № 164
The Teacher-Advisor: Nelli Porseva
The Teacher of English
Municipal Linguistic Gymnasia № 164
Zelenogorsk
Krasnoyarsk Region
Russia
2007
“Only
having good perspective for the future, we can direct our work to the right way
in present”.
P. Capitca.
INTRODUCTION
The main aim of my work is to analyze
the perspective of space programs in future, to research how space activity
reflects in American and Russian movies, make conclusions on what is the best
way of future directions in space activity of the humankind, find out some
possible consequences of a crashing of a space object, make some public issue
of the results of our work on the theme.
RESEARCHING THE
MOVIES
It’s interesting to note that
space-based activities are reflected in numerous movies
While working at our project, we
have watched several films about space (for example, “Battle for Space”). These
films were educatational and documentary.
On April 12, the first man went
into space. It was 46 years ago, but this day became a national holiday in
Russia – The Day of Cosmonautics. According to this date, there also were films
on the theme of space on our central television. The films were “S.
Korolyev: knocking the heaven”;
“Who rules “Mir”?” and “The
War of Space Ambitions”. I
liked the last film. It consists of 2 parts, but each of the parts also is divided
into several episodes, such as “Spies on the Orbit”, “Space Secret Detachment”
and etc. It is devoted to the problem of the space race between the USA and the
USSR in the middle of the XX century. It gave us some new information about
preparation of cosmonauts for flights (for example, cosmonauts were placed into
a small metal sphere and put in
sea for 3 days and etc), about satellites that had been launched for
radio-, photo-, video- intelligence service, anti-satellite weapons (that were common
practice since 1962, when the USSR launched the Satellites Killer). In this
film we came across the idea that space blessings that people called the
results of civilian using of space are just the side results of the military
interest in space. It is the fact, we can agree with it or not, but the
exploration of space really began with creation of ballistic missiles.
Making the task we also watched
some feature films, not educational, but very expressive and interesting.
APOLLO 13
[www.impawards.com]
This film shows us a story about “Apollo 13” –
American mission of flight to the Moon. It is a feature film, but it also can
be called documentary. It shows us how cosmonauts prepare for a flight, how the
control of a space flight is realized by cosmonauts on the spacecraft and by specialists
from the Earth.
This all happened less than a year
since the first man had walked on the Moon, but the Americans thought that this
mission was just another “usual” space flight. Then the main character of the
film – one of the crew of “Apollo 13” Jim Lovell (Tom Hanks) – said a very
significant phrase that “A space flight can’t be “usual” no matter whether it
is the first or the twentieth”. But this space flight was especially unusual.
Everything was going well, until Jim Lovell sent a terrifying
message to the Control Center: “Houston, we have a problem. Something has gone
horribly wrong. Power and guidance systems are down, and the supply of oxygen
is rapidly running out.” [from the movie]. They practically reached the Moon,
but now stranded more than 205,000 miles away in space, they might never return
to the Earth. They “lost their Moon”, now the main task for them was to come
back home, to survive.
They left the main module and went to the Lunar
module that hadn’t been made for such purposes. It was made for 2 cosmonauts to
stay on the Moon surface, now there were 3 cosmonauts: Jim Lovell (Tom Hanks),
Fred Haise (Bill Paxton), Jack Swigert (Kevin Bacon), and they were going to
come back home on it. For three days, the world watched in anxious silence, not
knowing whether the crew of “Apollo 13” would come home alive. When people lost
hope, the real wonder happened: the module fell into the ocean and the
cosmonauts were alive and felt themselves good.
[www1.jsc.nasa.gov]
BLADERUNNER
[www.impawards.com]
This film appeared in 1982. It was inspired by
the novel of Phillip K. Dick “Do Androids Dream of Electric Sheep?”. This film
is very interesting and exciting, because it describes the world in the 21st
century (2019): today we live in this century and we can judge whether the representation
of the future life by people from the previous century was correct or not. But
don’t forget that the film all the same is feature and fantastic.
This time Robot evolution comes
into the “Nexus phase”. The result is creation of beings called Replicants. The
“Replicants” were superior in strength and in intelligence to the genetic
engineers, who created them. Replicants were used as slaves in exploration and
colonization of other planets, where people are going to move, because a
possibility of the nuclear war made the Earth an unsafe place to live. After
some time Replicants go out of the control of engineers. Some of them killed
their masters and come to the Earth, where they pretended to be human. A
special organization with special police squads called Bladerunner Units was
created. They have to change the situation. They have orders to kill
Replicants. “It wasn’t called execution. It was called retirement”. [from the
movie]. Deckard (Harrison Ford) was to find and destroy a group of these Replicants
that was 
especially dangerous. At the end of the film,
he succeeded and all 4 Replicants were liquidated.
[www.dimfuture.net/wordpress/?m=200605]
This film doesn’t show
us any information about space, but we are interested in the idea of it. The
idea that people will colonize other planets and will be able to live there at
the beginning of the XXI century shows us how people were interested in this
question at the end of the previous century. But that times it was just only
dreams, because the space exploration was at the very beginning.
But remember: life imitates art as much as art
imitates life. Nowadays, robots really exist, spacecrafts circle the Earth and
people can walk on the moon surface and the surface of other planets. Who knows,
maybe we will really colonize other planets in some years? According to the phrase
of Stanislav Lec: “Soon we will be fleas of space
that jump from one planet to another.” [15]. We think it is just the
question of time.
When we watched the film “Blade
runner”, we became interested in the problem of presentation of humankind
future in other movies like this. We’d like to represent you the results of our
researching on the theme:
SPACE FUTURE OF THE
HUMANKIND IN CINEMATOGRAPH’S ESTIMATION
|
TIMELINE |
At the end of the XX century |
At the beginning of the XXI century |
|
|
THE NAME |
the novel “Jumping to nothing” by Alexander
Belyaev |
the film “E.T.” by S. Spielberg |
the film “Battle of the Worlds” made by
S. Spielberg (2005) |
|
|
[www.litportal.ru] |
[11] |
[www.kinomag.ru]
[12] |
|
THE VISION |
Capitalists have to go away from the planet
and they decided to fly to Venus |
Elliott, little boy, found E.T., a visitor
from another planet left stranded on the Earth, hiding in his backyard and
decided to keep him. Hiding the alien from his mother, Thomas and the
neighborhood kids became friends with the creature. E.T. wanted to get back
to his own planet, and the children tried to save him from the government that had been trying to
capture and study him |
Martians would try to colonize the Earth |
|
TIMELINE |
At the beginning of the XXI century |
2026 |
2084 |
|
THE NAME |
the film “Red Planet” (2000) |
“Marcial chronicles” (1950) |
“Total recall” (1990) |
|
|
[www.zone-sf.com]
[12] |
[12] |
[artsncrafty.blogspot.com]
[12]
[11] |
|
THE VISION |
The crew of cosmonauts researched that there
was oxygen on Mars, so there could be alive beings! |
There are already cities inhabitant by people
on Mars |
The main character went to Mars as a tourist.
There has already been a city inhabitant by people as on the Earth |
|
TIMELINE |
2088 |
2122 |
At the beginning of the XXIII century - 2263 |
|
THE NAME |
the Russian cartoon “The secret of the Third
Planet” (1981) |
the movie “Alien” (1979) |
the movie “The Fifth Element” (1997) |
|
|
[www.anigo.miass.ru]
[12] |
[www.filmposters.it]
[12] |
[www.allposters.com]
[12] |
|
THE VISION |
Alisa Selezneva, the senior pupil, and her
father were looking for the uncommon interplanetary animals for the Earth Zoo |
The Alien got into the spacecraft “Nostromo”
and killed all the crew. |
Interplanetary communications were very
developing. The main characters had to fly to the planet Floston, where the
best resort had been situated. From this film we can understand that the
links with other civilizations are in a good state |
|
TIMELINE |
At the middle of the XXIII century |
It was before us, it will be after us… |
|
|
THE NAME |
the computer game “DOOM” (1993) |
the movie “Starship Troopers” |
the episodes of the movie “Star wars”
(1977-2005) |
|
|
[movies.ign.com]
[12]
[11] |
[lib.verycd.com]
[12] |
[www.ghostinthemachine.net]
[www.plegion.ru]
[www.unm.edu/~sac/movie.html]
[12] |
|
THE VISION |
The main character went to Mars to find out
why had the crew of geneticist that had been worked there died |
The Aliens from the planet Clendant were threatening
the Earth, but the humankind beat them. |
Even before the humankind had appeared, there
have been the war in space, in which different civilization participated |
|
TIMELINE |
It was before us, it will be after us… |
|||||
|
THE NAME |
the film “Solaris” inspired by the novel of
Stanislav Lem |
the Russian film “Through thorns to stars”
(1980) |
||||
|
|
The
American version [www.hometheaterhifi.com]
[www.antikoerperchen.de]
The
Russian version [12] |
[ternii.film.ru] |
||||
|
THE VISION |
It is a film that describes the enigmatic
ocean on the planet Solarys |
It is a film that shows us interrelation
between the Alien woman and the people. This film describes an
“interplanetary love” |
||||
POSSIBLE SCENARIOS
FOR THE FUTURE
First, we should mention that no
matter what country’s future in space we are to analyze, space is property of
every person on the Earth. The consequences of using of space influence the
whole planet and each person of it.
“As fate has willed, person should only be born on the Earth;
he will have to live in the Universe.” – said G. Beregovoy, the USSR
test-pilot, cosmonaut, lieutenant-general of the aviation [3, p.16; 1976]. We are the children of the Earth, but we
are the citizens of the Universe. We have conquered space and now we are
responsible for it, for its state. We can “mar” it, we can keep it the same, we
can “transform” it. The choice depends on us!
J.F. Kennedy, the American
president, said in 1962: “Space science, like nuclear science and all
technology, has no conscience of its own. Whether it will become a force for
good or ill depends on man.” [2]. That time the USA was one of the leaders in
space activity, that is why J.F. Kennedy added that the decisive role in the
problem of space activity plays the USA. He said: “… Only if the United States
occupies a position of pre-eminence can we help decide whether this new ocean
will be a sea of peace or a new, terrifying theater of war.” [2] Nowadays, this
problem is much more serious. First of all, because not only the USA has
leadership position in space activity, but Russia, practically all the European
countries, China, India and others play a big role in it. The situation depends
on the behavior of each of this territory separately and on the whole.
CHINA
We mentioned China’s position in previous
Benchmarks, but now we’d like to analyze the possible ways of developing of space
activity in this country. It is interesting, because of the last events (we
described it in the Benchmark I), when we suddenly knew that China had launched
its first type anti-satellite (ASAT) weapons.
For a long period of time China had
been opposed deploying weapons in outer space. “The Chinese government has
consistently advocated the peaceful use of outer space and opposed the weaponization
of outer space,” said Foreign Ministry spokesman Kong Quan at a regular news
briefing. “We do not wish to see any form of weapons in outer space, so we
reaffirm that our space flight program is an important
element of mankind’s peaceful utilization of outer space.” [13] But on January
11, 2007, China successfully tested a direct assent
ASAT weapon. Some politicians suggested that this ASAT test could have been a
strategic move by the Chinese to bully the United States into discussing a treaty
on prevention any types of weaponization of space. But could China use such
methods? We always should think not only about the result, but also about the
process, too. V. Putin said about this fact: “Don’t let the jinnee go out of
the bottle”.
We think, it is necessary for us to
mention the phrase said by Martin Arnis, a British artist: “Weapons are like
money: no one knows the meaning of enough”. Weaponization can be compared to
some drugs addiction, or to addiction to money. When you get some money, you
always want to get more and more. The same happens to weapons. When you start
to create weapons, it will be very difficult to stop it. So, now it is very
difficult to predict future directions in China space activity. It is too
controversial.
Moreover, the technology that it
used in China first ASAT can be also used by other countries. Mostly, it can
badly influence India’s space positions.
Generally speaking, we can say that
“China opposites missile defenses, but its opposition has become more vocal in
recent years as the United States has accelerated its national missile defense
(NMD) program and sought to expand theater missile defense (TMD) cooperation
with Japan and Taiwan”. [16]. Chinese opposition to US missile defense
programs is based on historical concerns about the danger of nuclear
proliferation, the United States' superpower status, Japan's military potential
and etc.
China's arguments against US missile defenses
programs:
China's Opposition to Theater Missile
Defense in Taiwan
1)
TMD sales to Taiwan would interfere in
China's internal affairs and violate its sovereignty
2)
TMD sales to
Taiwan would violate the 1982 US-China communiqué on arms sales
3)
Taiwan could use
TMD technology to develop offensive missiles
4)
TMD sales to
Taiwan would be a form of missile proliferation
China's Opposition to Theater Missile Defense in Japan
1)
TMD development
may spark an arms race in Asia between China and Japan and between Taiwan and
China [16]
China's Opposition to National Missile Defense
1)
NMD would halt
further US-Russian progress on strategic arms reductions
2)
NMD is a program
of militarization space but only covered by “beautiful, politically correct’
words about security
3)
It is a big
possibility of the second space race, but not only between the USA and Russia,
but including other countries: Japan, China, India, German etc.
COMPARISON OF AREAS
OF THE WORLD
|
CRITERION |
RUSSIA |
CHINA |
UNITED STATES |
|
1. Future Direction |
- new cooperative partners: China, Iran… |
- ambitious plans for Moon exploration |
- is going to create a complexes of anti-ballistic missile system in
Pole and Czech to protect the USA of possible attacks from Iran and North.
Korea |
|
2. Military usage of space/thoughts about the next space race |
- has already participated in this activity - has good military resources of various types of weapons |
- declares it is not interested in the space race - but rising of military capabilities |
- has already participated in this activity |
|
3. Clear targets |
- Russia offers the USA to sign the Treaty on No attacking, but the
USA rejects it |
- establishes a navigation and positioning system, good complete
satellites telecommunications |
- there are 14 complexes of the anti-ballistic
missile system in Alaska and 2 in California. To 2011 there would be 40 such
complexes only in Alaska |
|
4. Advantages that the country had had thanks to space exploration |
- a lot of advantages thanks to commercialization of space |
- strong cadre of young space scientists, engineers |
- new developments in technical sphere and not only in military
purposes (nanotechnology, robotics, intelligent systems, high-speed
networking and communication) |
|
“Humanity can manage all the difficulties of
the space trips, except, maybe, their costs.” |
|||
|
5. Problems that can be in future and are existing now |
- costs of space programs |
- threat to commercial using of space because the development of its
military using |
- problems of engaging of the young generation (1/4 of 14-24 years old
don’t support NASA) |
Nowadays, there are too many weapons:
chemical, nuclear or biological bombs and other types of Weapons of Mass
Destruction, for example. Some Russian specialists and politicians predict that
there might be the second space race, this time for nonproliferation. China has
already started it with the test of its ASAT to influence people’ opinion on
the situation. But does this country have a right to do it? How we can fight
for nonproliferation using weapons in this battle?
NATIONAL
POSITIONS ON THE WMD THREAT
|
USA |
considers WMD proliferation as one of the
principal threats to its security |
|
France |
No serious direct threat from WMD. A 1994
White Paper identified the existence of a potential indirect military threat
should France become involved against a WMD and ballistic missile proliferation |
|
UK |
No serious direct threat from WMD |
|
NATO |
Washington Summit Communiqué of December 1999
identified WMD proliferation as a ‘matter of serious concern’ for NATO and
outlined the ‘WMD Initiative’ as the Alliance’s response to this threat [18] |
|
Russia |
The 2000 National Security Concept identified
the proliferation of WMD and their delivery systems as one of its principal
sources of external danger. Russia relies on its nuclear weapons to deter
both WMD and conventional threats and will continue to do so [18] |
|
China |
is distrustful of US global hegemony and
Russian territorial ambitions and appears to be seeking the capability to
reciprocate if either threatens China with an WMD attack that could destroy
its nuclear arsenal [18] |
PROLIFERATION OF MEDIUM,
INTERMEDIATE AND INTERCONTINENTRAL BALLISTIC MISSILE
|
1989 |
Missiles |
Warheads |
|
USA |
1842 |
7602 |
|
France |
114 |
434 |
|
UK |
64 |
192 |
|
USSR |
2700 |
11176 |
|
China |
83 |
|
|
2000 |
Missiles |
Warheads |
|
Missiles |
Warheads |
|
USA |
958 |
5264 |
North Korea |
~10-20 |
(single warhead) |
|
France |
64 |
384 |
Iran |
~5 |
(single warhead) |
|
UK |
48 |
144 |
India |
~5 |
(single warhead) |
|
Israel |
~20-30 |
(single warhead) |
Pakistan |
~10 |
(single warhead) |
|
Russia |
1064 |
4716 |
Saudi Arabia |
~60 |
(single warhead) |
|
China |
287 |
(single warhead) |
|
|
|
PROJECT OF THE FUTURE
|
2010-2015 |
Missiles |
Warheads |
2010-2015 |
Missiles |
Warheads |
|
USA |
580 |
1420 |
North Korea |
~10-20 |
(single warhead) |
|
France |
64 |
384 |
Iran |
~20 |
(single warhead) |
|
UK |
64 |
192 |
Iraq |
~5 |
(single warhead) |
|
Israel |
~20-30 |
(single warhead) |
India |
~30 |
(single warhead) |
|
Russia |
1064 |
4716 |
Pakistan |
~20 |
(single warhead) |
|
China |
242 |
258 |
Saudi Arabia |
~60 |
(single warhead) |
[18].
We can notice that the amount of the missile
and warheads is falling down, but the amount of the countries in which such
missiles are created is growing. This is the real proliferation program!
All in all, we have said that there are some
countries that are against this situation though they also, certainly, have
them. So, the next space race for nonproliferation is the real threat. It is
the main direction that we have to change in future directions of human space
activity.
SCENARIO OF THE
CONSEQUENCES OF A SPACE OBJECT CRASHING
We have already understood that the
exploration of space developed rapidly. We have considered the positive
consequences of it, such as for example positive influence of space programs on
our every-day life: the Internet, GPS, radio, forecasting, environmental
monitoring and other activities connected with commercialization of space and
its learning. Nevertheless, developing of space program is also very dangerous.
It’s dangerous for people, who do it: for scientists, cosmonauts, experimenter,
doctors and others. It is dangerous for our every-day life: not only because of
the threats of proliferation of WMD and the next space race for
nonproliferation and others political aspects, but also because of the launch
of space objects and its returning.
The Challenge explosion is the most
obvious example of a risk to human life. Satellites occasionally fall out of
orbit and could land in populated areas. But it is much risky to launch nuclear
powered satellites. “A Russian satellite once exploded before reaching orbit
and landed in unpopulated area of Canada spreading nuclear material over hundreds
of miles. It is entirely possible that it could have exploded over a populated
area and killed many people”. [20].
When a space craft is ready to start
there can be a threat of possible explosion. There are 30 tones of fuel in a
space craft. Certainly, there are different defense controlling systems, but
all in all there are some examples of crashing in first seconds of a flight and
even before it. Certainly, such explosions can cause many victims and technological
losses. We all remember the crashing of the space craft “Soyuz - 1” in 1967. The
modern safety equipement developed for the space shuttle now saves hundreds of
people and the risk of the consequences of a space flight are bringing lower. Launching
spacecraft and space probes is very dangerous. Even with all of the computer
technology controling the launches, things still do go wrong.
When the first International Space
Station “MIR” was returning to the Earth, it was drowned to the Pacific Ocean.
But all in all some fragments of it fell into a populated area. There isn’t any
official information whether somebody was hurt, but, certainly, it caused many damages.
If a space object or its fragments
fall down to the populated area, there, certainly, will be human victims, but
moreover:
1.
Growing of the
amount of the space debris
2.
Technical losses
3.
Spending a lot of
money on restoration
4.
Bad influence on the
environment
5.
Bad influence on
public opinion about the necessity of space exploration
6.
Some local
consequences depending on the place
PUBLIC OPINION
In the Benchmark II we made an opinion poll, we
already described the results of it. But according to them, we decided to write
a letter to our local newspaper to share some ideas about space exploration and
public influence on it with readers, with townspeople. Our letter was devoted
to the problem of the space race between the USA and the USSR, the benefit of
using of space to people, and what can be with us if we don’t control space
activity. In this letter we reflected our thought on the theme, how public
opinion can change the situation. We spoke about the fact that people are
uninterested in this problem, because they think that space is far away from
their life and it doesn’t influence it. But everything is connected with each
other, and not only space influence our life, but we influence it too, and our
behavior in this activity is very important for the whole planet. We spoke
about the fact that everyone of us should be the citizen of the world and
should “fight” for peace. But we should think about the methods of this battle
and we are responsible of this choice of them.
CONCLUSIONS
Space is very useful for people,
but it requires a lot of attention and care in its using.
Stopping using space means to kill
a hen that lays golden eggs”. [6, p. 172; 1990]. So, space exploration is
really necessary for people. There isn’t any other scientific or technological sphere
that entered everyday human life as rapidly as space activities.
But space activity is very
dangerous for people because of many aspects and we should be very careful of it.
We think that there should be
special “ethics of space exploration”: some moral laws in space using. Not
official treaties and agreement that we have considered in Benchmark II, but
some, maybe unofficial, but well-known for all people and first of all for
people who take part in space activity directly laws. It is our responsibility
to make them and follow them. Space is in our hands, we conquered space, and it
will be such a waste to lose it or to obliterate it.
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begins at the Earth” - Moscow:
“Young Guards”, 1976.
4.
U. Colesnikov
“You will build spacecrafts” – Moscow: “Children Literature”, 1990.
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A.N. Berezovoy,
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1987.
6.
A. Gybarev “Orbit
of life” – Moscow: “Young Guards”, 1990.
7.
James Clay Moltz
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Laura Grego, Lisbeth Gronlund “The Physics of Space Security: a Reference
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V.A. Orlov
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http://www.globenet.free-online.co.uk/
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images.google.com
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MK-boulevard,
April, 8, p. 34-37
13.
technology.wm-loto.com/?cat=12&paged=
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http://mdb.cast.ru
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http://www.wisdoms.ru/186_1.html
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http://www.nti.org/db/china/mdpos.htm
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http://forum.grodno.net/YaBB.pl?num=1171211584;start=all
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www.mdwg.org.uk/strategicchameleon.htm
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http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/sci/tech/927991.stm
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http://www.iit.edu/~prokjos/space/consequences.html
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http://www.fas.org/spp/military/program/sp97/index.html
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Computerra, # 15,
April, 14, p. 32-43