CRITICAL ISSUES FORUM 2007

SPACE: FORUM FOR COOPERATION OR NEXT FRONTIER FOR WMD PROLIFERATION?

BENCHMARK II

STUDENT: Dmitri Kuzmik

TEACHER: Olga Sergeyeva

SCHOOL FOR COSMONAUTICS

ADVISOR: Elena Nekrasova

SIBERIAN YOUTH EDUCATIONAL

INFORMATION CENTER

ZHELEZNOGORSK 2007

Objective 1

1. A database of the scientific and technical requirements to develop a space program

What does a country need to start its own space program? We have tried to represent the the basic components of a space program in the following chart:

Besides, there exist some requirements to developing a space program which include security, environmental, technological, medical and political aspects.

2. The benefits of a space program to society

To begin with, the idea of humans departing the planet into space has always been fascinating. Space exploration is very important as science and technology benefited greatly from national space programs. Space can produce a higher quality of life and more economic wealth. Various fields of science advanced when man flew into space and to the Moon. Astronomy books are rewritten every day thanks to Hubble Space Telescope, International Ultraviolet Explorer and space probes. Computer Science made great progress as smaller and faster computers were needed to send a man to the Moon and this led to the microprocessor and our modern computers. Medicine profited greatly from space programs. A serious problem of calcium loss in the bones of astronauts has helped to study an earthbound skeletal disease, osteoporosis. Perhaps a cure for cancer may someday come from experiments run in space. The monitoring of our Earth from space came from space programs. The space exploration missions have produced basic knowledge about our planet, our environment, the solar system, and the universe. Space missions have given us a deeper awareness of the history of our Earth and how we can make better decisions concerning life on our planet and improve it for ourselves and for the next generations. Applications from the space program have made life a totally different experience than it was forty years ago. Nightly, we receive live television news reports from all over the world. Every day we receive accurate weather forecasts as meteorologists carefully examine a great number of satellite photographs which show the latest storm systems and how they will affect our future weather. Satellite hurricane prediction has saved many lives in different parts of the world. This fact alone shows that space programs have made a great contribution into the life of the humanity. Advanced space technology, has made life on Earth more secure. Advances in electronics, medicine, robotics, computers, miniaturization, and remote sensing have occurred quickly because of the space program. If there had not been a space program, these advances would have probably appeared much later if at all.

3. A list of nations that have space programs

It is possible to divide all space-faring nations (nations with a rocket powerful enough for space launches which are capable to launch their own satellite into orbit) into two groups: those that have performed human spaceflights and those that performed non-human spaceflights.

Space programs with human spaceflight	Space programs with non-human spaceflights
People’s Republic of China Russian Federation The United States of America	Argentina, Brazil, Canada, Europe (ESA), France, Germany, Indonesia, Iran, Israel, Italy, India, Japan, North Korea, South Korea, Malaysia, Pakistan, Republic of China (Taiwan), Spain, Ukraine, United Kingdom

People’s Republic of China – dual use space program

China’s space program goals include:

- setting up an independent satellite telecommunications system

- establishing an independent satellite navigation and positioning system

- providing commercial launches

- setting up a remote sensing system

- studying space science

- Moon exploration

- constructing manned space station

- performing manned missions to the moon

- constructing manned lunar base

Russian Federation

Russian space program includes:

• Developing new-generation spacecraft for communications and navigation (both military and civilian),
• Deployment of the GLONASS satellite navigation network
• Commercial launches
• Constructing the new space station for material processing research and the development of technologies for manned missions to the Moon and Mars
• Modifying the Soyuz spacecraft for the missions to the Moon
• Manned expeditions to the Moon and Mars (2025-2030)
• Reviving the nation’s planetary exploration program
• Astronomy observatories

United States – 50% military 50% civilian program (dual use)

• Long term human and robotic program to explore the Solar system
• Finishing assembly of the ISS
• Return to the Moon (2015-2020)
• Future exploration of Mars
• Developing a new manned exploration vehicle (Crew Exploration vehicle)

In the past the USA had 5 manned programs and space shuttle. Each program had its own objectives.

Mercury project (1961-1963) aimed at sending a man into orbit around the Earth, studying the effects of being in space and returning safely to earth.

Gemini project (1965-1966) aimed at spending up to two weeks in orbit, docking with another spacecraft, perfecting earth re-entry and landing.

Apollo project (1967-1972) aimed at landing a man on the moon and returning him safely to earth, gathering lunar rocks and soil samples.

Skylab project (1973-1979) aimed at proving that humans could live and work in space for extended periods and expanding our knowledge of solar astronomy.

Apollo-Soyuz test project aimed at safe docking of an Apollo spacecraft with a Soyuz spacecraft

[http://www.thespacerace.com]

Non-human spaceflight

Argentina - civilian space program

The national space program provides for two satellite series devoted to earth observation (SAC and SAOCOM) and international cooperation;

Brazil – civilian space program (former military)

Brazilian space program goals include:

• A joint technological development with more advanced space programs, cooperation with Ukraine, Israel, Argentina, China)
• Establishment within Brazil the scientific and technical competence in the space
• Development of space systems and related ground infrastructure
• Fostering of scientific research, technological applications
• Training and development of human resources and support to the qualification of the national space industry

[http://www.brazilspace.com]

Canada – civilian space program

Canadian space program is aimed to promote the peaceful use and development of space for the benefits of Canadians and humanity, to contribute technology, expertise and personnel to the world space effort especially in collaboration with NASA and ESA.

European Space Agency (17 member states) – civilian space program

• The program is dedicated to the exploration of space (as an integral part of overall space activities), commercial space launches (current market leader)
• Columbus Space station program
• Constructing rockets for unmanned scientific and commercial payloads (Ariane launches)
• Deep-space missions in cooperation with NASA (GIOTTO, ULYSSES)
• Creating an own manned mission
• Future scientific and research projects

• Astronomy-space missions
• Manned European Mars mission (2030), ExoMars, Mars Rover, Mars Sample Return mission



Indonesia – civilian and military space program

• Long-term civilian and aerospace research
• National GEO communications network (Palapa B and Palapa C series of satellites)
• Indostar program

Iran

• Research in the field of space and aero technology, remote sensing and development of national and international space technology and communication networks.
• Foreign cooperations with Russia, China and North Korea.
• Development of Shabab launch vehicle program

• Communication satellite projects

[http://www.fas.org/nuke/guide/iran/missile/iris.htm]

Japan – dual use space program

• Manned lunar base
• Manned space plane operation

• International space station



India - dual use space program

• Development of technologies related to space and their application to India’s development (exploration of deep space
• more powerful rockets

• complex applications satellites for remote sensing and communications (weather picture, disaster warnings, feeds to 552 television and 164 radio stations )

UK – civilian space program

The UK is going to play the key role in ESA mission to the Moon (future ESA program ExoMars). Active collaboration with NASA and ESA. Own space program goals include:

• Moon exploration
• Lunar probes “Moonlight” and “Moonraker”

US-Soviet competition in space

For over a decade, the United States and the Soviet Union were involved in a fierce competition—the space race. The space race began in 1957 when the Soviet Union launched the first artificial satellite, Sputnik. The Russians have accomplished a number of impressive space “firsts” including first artificial satellite, first man in space, first woman in space, first crafts to flyby Venus, Mars and the Moon, the world’s first space station and many other firsts. The Soviet space program was 95% military. Every rocket launch was conducted by the Strategic Rocket Forces and all payloads had some military significance such as reconnaissance, weather reporting, navigation, communications, and remote sensing. Initially, the Soviet government considered its space program as a means to show to the rest of the world the superiority of Communist system. In contrast to the American space program the Soviet space program was very secretive. Both programs were initially military (Russian – 95% military, American – 50% military). The Soviet government trumpeted every single “frst” but the world seldom heard of Russian failures. In contrast, the Americans made no secret of their failures. Sergei Korolev, Russian “Grand Designer” was a true space pioneer, he wanted no fame, he just wanted to explore space. He set up a very simple and methodical space exploration program. The American space program was more sophisticated and technical. For instance, the Russians used smaller and simpler rocket engines in several engine pods, but the Americans designed a large complicated engine for their vehicles. The Russians used batteries for electric power which lasted from 10 to 14 days instead of sophisticated solar panels for their reconnaissance missions. To keep constant reconnaissance, the Russians had to launch another reconnaissance satellite every two weeks and led the world in launches for 25 years. While it seemed the United States had captured the prime German experts, it turned out to be the Soviets who managed to launch the first artificial Earth satellite. [John F. Graham – From talisman of the past to gateway of the future. Chapter 20- Russian space programs1995. http://www.space.edu/projects/book/ ]

1957 October 4 – Sputnik 1 was sent to a 370 mile high orbit (USSR) Sputnik had been launched on an ICBM booster rocket called R-7 from Baikonur in Russia. Sergei Korolev led the team that developed it.

1957 November 3 – Sputnik 2 carrying the dog, Laika, was launched in orbit (USSR)

1958 January 31 - Explorer 1 the first successful American satellite reached orbit (USA)

1958 March 5 - Explorer 2 was launched but it failed to reach orbit (USA)

1958 March 17 – The Vanguard 1 satellite was launched (USA)

1958 May 5 – Sputnik 3, a geophysical lab, was launched (USSR)

1958 October 1 - The Congress created NASA. (USA)

1959 January - Luna 1, the first spacecraft to escape Earth orbit was launched (USSR)

1959 March 3 - Pioneer 4 was launched in an Earth-Moon trajectory. It passed within 60,000 kilometers from the Moon (USA)

1959 May 28 – The first primates completed a suborbital flight onboard Jupiter ballistic missile (USA)

1959 September 12 – Luna 2 was launched. It impacted the Moon on September 13, the first man-made object to do so. (USSR)

1959 October 4 – Luna 3 orbited the Moon and photographed 70% of its surface. (USSR)

1960 April 1 – Tiros 1 was launched from Cape Canaveral, the first weather monitoring satellite (USA)

1960 April 13 – Transit 1B, the first navigation satellite, was successfully launched. (USA)

1960 May 15 – The first prototype of Vostok spacecraft reached orbit (USSR)

1960 August 18 – Discoverer XIV was launched, its first camera equipped spy satellite (USA)

1960 August 19 – Two dogs Belka and Strelka became the first animals returning from orbit. (USSR)

1961 February 12 – Venera 1 probe was launched towards Venus (USSR)

1961 April 12 – Yuri Gagarin completed the world’s first manned spaceflight on board Vostok spacecraft (USSR)

1961 May 5 – Alan Shepard became the first American in space

1961 May 25 – The US President John F. Kennedy addressed the Congress and challenged the nation to go to the Moon before the end of the decade.

"I believe this nation should commit itself to achieving the goal, before this decade is out, of landing a man on the Moon and returning him safely to Earth. No single space project in this period will be more impressive to mankind, or more important in the long-range exploration of space; and none will be so difficult or expensive to accomplish."

John F. Kennedy
Special Joint Session of Congress

1961 July 21 – Gus Grissom was launched on a sub-orbital flight. His Liberty-Bell capsule was lost when it filled with water and sank after splashdown.

1961 August 6 – German Titov spent a day in space aboard Vostok 2 (USSR)

1962 February 20 – John Glenn orbited the Earth 3 times (the US first manned orbital space flight) (USA)

1962 August 11-15 – Two manned spacecrafts Vostok 3 and 4 orbited the Earth simultaneously (USSR)

1962 September 12 – President Kennedy gave a speech at Rice University reaffirming the importance of the Moon program.

“We choose to go to the moon. We choose to go to the moon in this decade and do the other things, not because they are easy, but because they are hard.”

1962 December 12 – Mariner 2 completed the first Venus flyby.

1963 June 16-19 – Valentina Tereshkova became the first woman in space.

1963 April 8 - NASA launched an unmanned Gemini-1 spacecraft on a first test mission of the program

1964 October 31 – Astronaut

1965 March 18 – Alexei Leonov conducted the world’s first spacewalk

1965 June 3 – Ed White performed America’s first spacewalk.

1965 July 15 – Mariner 4 completed flyby of Mars

1965 November 16 – Venus 3 was launched. (the first man-made object to impact Venus on March 1, 1966)

1966 February 3 – Luna 9 became the first spacecraft to soft -land on the Moon.

1966 April 3 – Luna 10 became the first satellite to orbit the Moon.

1966 June 2 – Surveyor 1 soft-landed on the Moon

1967 January 27 – Three US astronauts died in the fire inside Apollo spacecraft during on-pad tests

1967 April 24 – Vladimir Komarov died on landing during the test flight of Soyuz 1 spacecraft

1967 October 18 – Venera 4 transmits data about the atmosphere of Venus

1968 March 27 – Cosmonaut Yuri Gagarin died in a plane crash.

1968 September 15 – Zond 5 became the first spacecraft to orbit the Moon and return to Earth.

1968 October 11 – The Apollo 7 with a crew of 3 orbited Earth

1968 December 21 – The Apollo 8 with a crew of 3 completed world’s first translunar flight and orbiting of the Moon.

1969 January 16 - Soyuz 4 and 5 performed the first spacecraft docking.

1969 July 20 – The Apollo 11 astronauts landed and walked on the surface of the Moon.

[http://www.thespacerace.com]

By reaching the moon first, the United States won the space race. The world watched each country’s progress with great interest. Scientists and government leaders in both countries were under intense pressure to meet tough deadlines. [http://www.newseum.org]

In spite of the fact that the space race was originally a competition between two cold war enemies, it doubtlessly resulted in many benefits for the people of the Earth.

We were greatly impressed by a BBC-Russian TV series called “Space Race” showing success and failure of the two nations efforts to win the competition in space. “Space Race” was first shown in Britain in 2005, and it was dedicated to the 100^th anniversary of Sergei Korolev’s birth in Russia in 2007. It is a docu-drama series chronicling the major events and characters in the American – Soviet space race. It focuses on two major figures of Soviet and American space programs – Sergei Korolev, the Soviets’ chief rocket designer, and Wernher von Braun, his American rival. The events of the first days of space exploration are depicted very vividly, we see the sleepless nights, nerves, constant tension, failures and long-waited success of these personalities and we feel the real atmosphere of those days.

Episode 1 is called “Race for Rockets” and covers the period from 1944 to 1949. We see Wernher von Braun surrender to American troops and his move to the United States. We see Sergei’s Korolev release from the Gulag, and how he is set to work on Soviet rockets.

Episode 2 is called “Race for Satellites” (1953-1958). Korolev designs and constructs R-7 Smoke, a rocket capable of carrying a five-ton warhead to America. Later Korolev was allowed to use it to launch Sputnik 1. After Vanguard failure Von Braun is eventually allowed to launch Explorer1, the first American satellite.

Episode 3 “Race for Survival” (1959-1961) shows how both USSR and USA prepare to manned space flight. Russia develops “Vostok program” while America develops “Mercury project”. Both sides experienced great difficulties and failures but the Russians succeeded in putting Yuri Gagarin into space first. Americans put Alan Shepard into space shortly afterwards.

Episode 4 “Race to the Moon” spans 1964-1969. Both countries have ambitious plans to put a man on the Moon. The Americans pull ahead with their “Gemini project” but suffer a disaster with Apollo 1 fire. Soviet space program suffers its own tragedy – Sergei Korolev dies during an operation, the cosmonaut Vladimir Komarov is killed during the crash of Soyuz landing and moon rocket N 1 fails to launch. Americans overcome the difficulties and perform the first manned lunar mission and the first manned lunar landing.

One interesting detail attracted our attention – Steve Nicolson, a British actor, performed the role of Sergei Korolev. In our opinion his acting was brilliant.

China and India space programs – case studies

We have analyzed the space programs of two Asian countries with biggest populations in the world. India and China are now becoming major space-faring nations. Chinese and Indian astronomers knew a lot about our solar system long before Europeans. At present the economies of both countries show high growth rates and are able to invest more and more money in national space programs.

	China	India
history	A biological rocket carrying rats was launched successfully from Anhui province on July 19, 1964 The PRC launched its first satellite Mao 1 on its “Long March” space rocket on April 24, 1970. This launch made China the fifth nation with a space rocket. In November 1975 China launched its first “homing satellite” and thus became the 3d nation capable to do so. In 2003 China became the 3d nation with human spaceflight program.	First Nike-Apache rocket launch in Thumba in 1963 led to the birth of India’s space program (November 21, 1963) [V. M. Thomas – India’s space program turns 40 – www.space.com ] In 1980 India became the 8^th country to launch a satellite into orbit. In 1984 the first Indian cosmonaut became the 138^th man in space.
Goals	China astronauts spacewalk Moon and Mars exploration (in cooperation with Russia) Independent satellite navigation and positioning system Developing of small satellites	Domestic design, production and launching of remote sensing and communications satellites [www.indianchild.com]
spacecrafts	Rockets The Long March series of launch vehicles Long March 1 (1970) Long March 2 (1975) Long March 3 (1983) Long March 4 (1988) Weaver Girl Satellites Several successful launches since 1970 Remote sensing, communications and weather satellites for both civilian and military use: Wind and Cloud # 1	Rockets Satellite launch vehicle (SLV) Augmented Satellite Launch Vehicle (ASLV) Polar Satellite Launch Vehicle (PSLV) Geosynchronous Satellite Launch Vehicle (GSLV) Satellites Aryabhata – the first Indian space satellite Bhaskara I – an Earth observation satellite Rohini 1 – first India’s own satellite Remote sensing and communications satellites (Rohini 3 – television coverage from 20 to 70 % of the population) INSAT 1 and 2 – geostationary communications and meteorological satellite GSAT 1 communications satellite with digital audio, data and video broadcasting Technology Experiment Satellite (TES) Indian National Satellite (INSAT 3C)
missions	Major lunar exploration project – Chang’e project Launch services to foreign countries since 1987 Science and application satellites to develop remote areas of the country Human spaceflights Human landing on the Moon	Moon flight project (2007 – 2008) Own human spaceflight – India is planning to become the 4^th nation with human spaceflight and to send a man into orbit in 2014 and a man to the Moon in 2020. Commercial launches
Agencies	China National Space Administration Ministry of Astronautics (rocketry) Chinese Academy of Space Technology (CAST) China Great Wall Industry Corporation (commercial launches)	Indian Space Research Organization (ISRO) became Government organization on April 1, 1975 A Space Science and Technology Center (SSTC) Department of Space (DOS)
astronauts	In 2003 Yang Liwei became the first Chinese man in space. He spent 21.5 hours in orbit on board Shenzhou 5 spacecraft In 2005 Fei Junlong and Nie Haisheng spent 5 days in orbit on board Shenzhou 6.	In 1984 the first Indian cosmonaut on board became the 138^th man in space.
spaceports	4 major launch sites: Jiuquan, Taiyuan, Xichang, Hainan	Satish Dhawan Space Center Thumba Equatorial Rocket Launch Center Balasore Sriharikota
budget	2006 - $ 2575 billion and from year to year China’s space budget is growing rapidly [www.cns.miis.edu/research/space/]	2005-2006 $ 722 million (24% increase) 2006-2007 $ 815 million (35 % increase) India’s space program is already a money earner. India sells infrared images from its remote-sensing satellites to other countries. [http://space.com/spacenews/archive] [http://www.newscientist.com]

Both countries are believed to become space superpowers and have ambitious plans to explore space. The countries have their own space centers as well as launching capabilities. The space programs of the countries started almost simultaneously but nowadays China

has greater technological potential and capabilities. This is proved by the fact that China has become the third country in the world with manned spaceflight. The budget of India’s space program is relatively modest comparing to China’s. Both countries have dual use space programs.

Objective 2

Treaties and agreements that govern uses of space

Through the efforts of the United Nations Committee on the peaceful uses of Outer space and its legal subcommittee a number of significant contributions to the law of outer space have been made. The United Nations has become a focal point for international cooperation in outer space and for the formulation of necessary international laws.

[United Nations Treaties and Principles on Outer Space – www.unoosa.org]

There are five general multilateral treaties which regulate activities in outer space

The Outer Space Treaty (Treaty on Principles Governing the Activities of States in the Exploration and Use of Outer Space, including the Moon and Other Celestial Bodies)

97 parties, 27 signatories

Adopted by the General Assembly on 19 December 1966, opened for signature on 27 January 1967 in Moscow, Washington, D.C. and London, entered into force on 10 October 1967

o Bans weapons of mass destruction in orbit, on celestial bodies, or stationed in space in any way.

o Bans military installations or fortifications and weapons testing on celestial bodies.

o Bans claiming ownership of territory in space and on celestial bodies.

o Requires prior notification in case of planned harmful activities in space.

Agreement on the Rescue of Astronauts, the Return of Astronauts and the Return of Objects Launched into Outer Space (Rescue Treaty)

Adopted by the General Assembly on 19 December 1967, opened for signature on 22 April 1968 in London, Moscow and Washington D.C.

• Requires that a state which receives information or discovers that the personnel of a spacecraft have suffered an accident or have made an emergency landing notify the launching authority and render the astronauts all necessary assistance.

Convention of International Liability for Damage Caused by Space Objects (The Liability Convention)

82 ratifications, 25 signatories.

Adopted on 29 November 1971, opened for signature on 29 March 1972, entered into force on 1 September 1972.

o Requires that a state pay compensation for any damage its space objects cause to another state’s space assets on Earth, in flight, or in space.

Convention on Registration of Objects Launched into Outer Space (The Registration Convention)

44 parties, 4 signatories

Adopted on 12 November 1974, opened for signature on 14 January 1975, entered into force on 15 September 1976.

• Requires international notification of the function and orbit of all space launches.

Agreement Governing the Activities of States on the Moon and other Celestial Bodies (The Moon Agreement)

10 parties, 5 signatories

Adopted on 5 December 1979, opened for signature on 18 December 1979, entered into force on 11 July 1984

o Bans weapons of mass destruction on, in orbit around, or on a trajectory around the Moon.

o Bans military installations, fortifications and weapons testing on the Moon.

o Requires that the exploration and exploitation of natural resources on the Moon be carried out for the benefit and interest of all countries irrespective of their degree of economic or scientific development.

There is also a The Limited Test Ban treaty (1963) which is considered as one of the major space treaties in some sources.

The Limited Test Ban treaty (1963)

131 parties, 64 signatories

Forbids the test explosion of any nuclear weapons in outer space, the atmosphere, and under water.

The 1967 Outer Space Treaty can be viewed as a general legal basis for the peaceful uses of outer space. The four other treaties may be said to deal specifically with certain concepts included in the 1967 Outer Space Treaty.

[United Nations Treaties and Principles on Outer Space – www.unoosa.org ]

Today, due to the fact that many countries have indigenous launch capabilities as well as civilian, military and commercial space programs, the legitimacy of any space arms control norm depends on the buy-in of the major space-faring nations.

In the following chart we state the position of the countries with space programs concerning 5 major space treaties.

Country	OST	ARRA	LIAB	REG	MOON
Russian Federation	R	R	R	R
USA	R	R	R	R
China	R	R	R	R
India	R	R	R	R	S
Korea	R	R	R	R
Canada	R	R	R	R
Germany	R	R	R	R
France	R	R	R	R	S
Great Britain	R	R	R	R
Brazil	R	R	R
Argentina	R	R	R	R
ESA		D	D	D

R - ratification, accession or succession; S - signature only; D - declaration of acceptance of rights and obligations

[Status of International Agreements Relating to activities in Outer Space as at 1 January 2006 – http://www.unoosa.org/oosa/SpaceLaw/treatystatus]

In addition, there are five relevant General Assembly resolutions:

ü The Declaration of Legal Principles Governing the Activities of States in the Exploration and Uses of Outer Space (1963)

ü The Declaration of International Cooperation in the Exploration in the Exploration and Use of Outer Space for the Use and Benefit and in the Interests of All States (1996)

ü The Principles Governing the Use by States of Artificial Earth Satellites for International Direct Television Broadcasting (1982)

ü The Principles Relevant to the Use of Nuclear Power Sources in Outer Space (1992)

ü The Principles Relating to Remote Sensing of the Earth from Outer Space (1986)

[Jonathan Dean – Defenses in Space: Treaty Issues. Future Security in Space: Commercial, Military, and Arms Control Trade-Offs. Occasional Paper No.10]

Besides, there exist bilateral treaties between the United States and Russia

Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty (START) I (1991)

o Forbids interference with satellite treaty verification measures.

Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces (INF) Treaty (1987)

o Forbids interference with satellite treaty verification measures.

Anti-Ballistic Missile Treaty (1972)

o Prohibits the development of nation-wide defenses against long-range missiles.

o Bans the development, testing, or deployment of space-based missile defense components.

Strategic Arms Limitations Talks (SALT) I Interim Agreement (1972)

o Allows the use of satellites (national technical means of verification) for treaty verification and forbids interference with these satellites.

[CNS – Space: Major Treaties and Membership - http://cns.miis.edu/research/space/treaties/]

Since June 13, 2002, when U.S. withdrawal from ABM Treaty became effective, there is no longer a treaty prohibition against testing or deploying weapons in space other than weapons of mass destruction.

We have analyzed some articles to research what scientific and technological resources are needed to monitor and verify compliance with any space treaties. At a recent annual Conference on Disarmament, China stated: “Due to the complex nature of verification of outer space activities, which bears on the security interest of all countries, as well as to technical and financial constraints of verification, currently it is extremely difficult to negotiate a verification provision. For the time being, to put on hold the verification issue until conditions are ripe, and to negotiate a treaty without verification provisions could be a practical alternative.” [http://www.thespacereview.com/article/744/1]

It should be mentioned that today there is an urgent need to add several amendments to Outer space Treaty (1967) banning weapons of any kind (kinetic weapons, lasers) in space. The Outer space treaty can’t be considered 100% effective without these amendments. [http://www.cosmosravelin.narod.ru]

V. Kruglov and S. Dymov in their article on weapons in space [http://www.rian.ru/analytics]

say that today it is unclear how to monitor and verify compliance with Outer Space Treaty and therefore prevent militarization and weaponization of space. The idea of nuclear terrorism in space in the nearest future is highly possible and may cause unpredictable consequences. The problem of nonproliferation could be solved with the help of special devices put into spacecrafts and able to control nuclear weapons in space. The necessity to create a special program aiming to control nuclear weapons in orbit with the help of some space-based devices was underlined by Vladimir Putin and some American representatives. This program was called “a platform for Russian-American cooperation in space”. Today the technological potential of both countries makes it possible to create special inspecting spacecrafts able to detect presence or absence of nuclear weapons in orbit. It should be done in international cooperation with other countries.

[E.P.Velikhov – Space-based weapons: Dilemma of Safety]

Objective 3

A listing of space-based defenses

A space-based system actually includes three parts: a ground segment (including telemetry, tracking and control facilities, communications earth station and/or data reception and archival facilities ); the space segment itself (artificial satellites consisting of payloads and platforms), and the radio links (uplinks/downlinks that carry commands, communication traffic, signals, telemetry and data).

Space-based Ballistic Missile Defense systems can be lower-tier (LT) and upper-tier (UT). They have different characteristics:

Lower-tier systems are endo-atmospheric, defend a small area, intercept missiles with ranges less than 1000 km and generally are used for force-protection purposes.

Upper-tier systems are exo-atmospheric, defend an area far larger than lower-tier systems, use a completely different interceptor able to maneuver outside the atmosphere, and defend against missiles with ranges up to 4000-5000 km. Both types of systems are necessary because lower-tier systems have very limited capabilities against longer-range missiles, while some exo-atmospheric upper-tier systems cannot intercept shorter-range missile. [ ]

Future defenses

The Space-Based Infrared System (SBIRS) is a consolidated system intended to meet United States infrared space surveillance needs through the first two to three decades of the 21st century. The SBIRS program addresses critical warfighter needs in the areas of missile warning, missile defense and battlespace characterization. SBIRS is an integrated "system of systems" that will include satellites in geosynchronous orbit (GEO) and low Earth orbit (LEO), sensors hosted on satellites in highly elliptical orbit (HEO) and ground data processing and control. SBIRS ground software integrates infrared sensor programs of the U.S. Air Force (DSP) with new IR sensors.

[www.spacedebate/definitions/spacebasedinfraredsystem]

The Space-Based Laser – a gigantic orbiting laser which destroys warheads by melting parts.

[Ballistic Missile Defense - http://igcc.ucsd.edu/cprograms/]

Space-Based Radar (SBR) – is a proposed constellation of active radar satellites for the United States Department of Defense. The SBR system would allow detection and tracking of aircraft, ocean-going vessels, and potentially land vehicles from space. This information would then be relayed to regional and national command centers. [http://encyclopedia.thefreedictionary.com]

Space-Based interceptor (SBI) – is designed to accelerate towards and collide with a ballistic missile as it passes through space at the top of its trajectory. (Brilliant pebbles)

A time-line of the development of space-based defenses

September 1944 – Germany starts using A-4 ballistic missiles for attacks against London.

1953 – The Soviet Union initiated its ABM development program.

1957 - US begins work on its first major missile defense effort, the Nike-Zeus system.

1961 - According to one report, the Soviets completed the first interception and destruction of a missile warhead.

1962. After technology flaws doom the Nike-Zeus project, the US begins work on the Nike X missile defense program, which uses nuclear-tipped interceptors.

1966 – The Soviet tests involved launching a military missile from Kazakhstan to place a nuclear bomb in a very low orbit around Earth (Fractional Orbit Bombardment System)

1966. US Defense Secretary McNamara announces that the Soviet Union has deployed its Galosh missile defense system.

September 1967. President Johnson announces plans to deploy the Sentinel missile defense system (a successor to the Nike X program).

March 1969 – US Safeguard system is given a start for deployment.

May 1972. US and Soviet Union sign the ABM Treaty, banning nationwide missile defenses and limiting each side to two missile defense sites with no more than 100 interceptors at each site.

January 1976. The full Congress approves shutting down Safeguard, and Secretary of Defense Donald Rumsfeld announces the system’s termination.

March 23, 1983. President Reagan announces that the US will start an expanded research and development program of missile defense system which makes "nuclear weapons impotent and obsolete." His idea becomes the "Strategic Defense Initiative," or SDI. Opponents call it "Star Wars."

October 1986. President Reagan and Soviet President Gorbachev discuss the complete elimination of nuclear weapons, but the proposal collapses when Reagan refuses to agree to limitations on SDI.

June 14, 1989. President Bush decides to continue the SDI program, but focus on the development of "Brilliant Pebbles," a space-based interceptor design.

July 31, 1989. Presidents Bush and Gorbachev sign START I, reducing arsenals to 6,000 deployed warheads on each side.

May 1990 – North Korea test launches the Nodong 1 ballistic missile into the sea of Japan.

July 1990 – Taiwan is developing a sophisticated air defense system

November 1990 – The US establishes a Theater Missile Defense System

1991 – The U.S. proposes the Missile Defense Act

1991 – Theater Missile Defense Initiative projects are grouped into 3 groups

January 29, 1991. President Bush announces the Global Protection against Limited Strikes (GPALS) system to counter unauthorized, accidental or limited attacks.

February 1991. During the Persian Gulf War, the US Patriot missile attempts to intercept Iraqi Scud attacks. Despite initial glowing reports from the Pentagon, a study by the General Accounting Office shows that only 9 percent of intercept attempts were reliably successful.

February 1991 – Japan purchases one battery of Patriot SAMs as part of its 1991-1995 defense plan.

1992 – The Bush Administration first proposes Japanese and South Korean Theater Missile Defense deployments.

August 1992 – The U.S. and south Korean began the joint exercise “Ulchi Focus Lens” which includes missile defense exercises linking supercomputers in the US and Europe to command centers in Korea.

January 3, 1993. Presidents Bush and Yeltsin sign START II, limiting deployed warheads on each side to 3,000-3,500.

1993 – U.S. and Japanese industries jointly conduct the Western Pacific Architecture studies.

1993 – The U.S. Congress states that it is a national priority of the United States to develop and deploy highly effective theater missile defense systems.

January 1993 – CIA Director Robert Gates confirms that China obtains Patriot anti-missile technology.

March 1993 – China purchased at least 100 S-300 air-defense missiles from Russia.

May 1993 – A consortium of South Korean companies is going to build the Russian Almaz ATBM system under license, as a defense against North Korean Scud missiles.

March 21, 1997. Presidents Clinton and Yeltsin agree to a START III framework.

September 26, 1997. The US and Russia agree that the ABM Treaty includes Belarus, Kazakhstan and Ukraine.

17 Oct 97 The U.S. Army test-fired the Mid-Infrared Advanced Chemical Laser (MIRACL) at an old Air Force satellite. The laser fired two bursts at the satellite, one for less than a second and a second one for about ten seconds. Neither the satellite's laser camera that was the target of the firing, nor the satellite was damaged in the test.

July 1998. A commission chaired by Donald Rumsfeld (now secretary of defense) finds that the threat of a ballistic missile attack could emerge sooner than predicted in the 1995 intelligence estimate. Many experts criticize the commission, however, for emphasizing what could happen rather than what was likely to happen.

August 31, 1998. North Korea launches a Taepo Dong 1 missile over Japan, but the third stage fails to put its payload in orbit.

July 23, 1999. President Clinton signs the National Missile Defense Act of 1999, but lists four criteria he will use to make an ultimate deployment decision: threat, cost, technological status of NMD, and adherence to a renegotiated ABM Treaty.

September 1, 2000. President Clinton decides not to proceed with deployment of the NMD system, citing the status of technology and concerns among the US allies and opposition from Russia and China. He defers an ultimate deployment decision to the next administration.

January 2001. President Bush affirms his plan to deploy a robust NMD system. Russian President Putin warns the US that the ABM Treaty bans NMD systems on both sides.

June 2001. The White House FY02 defense budget calls for a 57 percent increase for missile defense, up $3 billion to $8.3 billion.

June 16, 2001. First Bush-Putin summit in Slovenia. Although a cordial meeting, the two leaders fail to reach concrete agreements on missile defense and the ABM Treaty.

June 13, 2002 – The U.S. withdrew from ABM Treaty.

October 2006 – New U.S. National Space Policy

[Missile Defense Timeline – Early History of Missile Defense – http://www.ucsusa.org]

Compare and contrast “space weapons” and “space-based defenses”

'Space weapons' are weapons that can: *attack and negate the capability of space systems in orbit (i.e. anti-satellite weapons) *attack targets on the earth (i.e. orbital bombardment weapons) *defeat missiles traveling through space (i.e. elements of the ongoing U.S. Strategic Defense Initiative program)
Anti-satellite weapons, which are primarily surface-to-space and air-to- space missiles, have been developed by the United States, the USSR/Russia, and the People's Republic of China. Some test firings have been successful in destroying orbiting satellites.
On March 23 1983, President Ronald Reagan proposed the Strategic Defense Initiative, a defensive system which would destroy enemy ICBMs. The defensive system was nicknamed Star Wars, after the movie. The system was intended to consist of satellites in geosynchronous orbit carrying powerful lasers. When a missile launch was detected, the satellite would fire its laser at the missile and destroy it. Although the satellites never took off the ground, today the military is testing the use of lasers mounted on Boeing 747s to destroy missiles. The tests are taking place at Edwards Air Force Base. [http://www.spacedebate.org/ definitions]

“Space-based defense” – The Space Based Missile Defense includes systems under development or studied to provide space based defenses against ballistic missiles. Space based defenses provide an opportunity to intercept ballistic missiles during the mid-course phase of their flight. It works rather simple – when the ballistic missile is launched, it is getting up into the outer space, space-based sensors detect an object headed for the country. The information is relayed to ground-based infrared sensors and radar systems, which also follow the object’s trajectory, and it is stroked by the missile from the earth, if the object is identified as a missile. It is done only in space, when the missile is active and radars can find it. Military officials describe the process as trying to hit a bullet with another bullet.

As simple as the system may seem, it would be one of the most complex weapons ever designed. And until only recently, many tests of the technology have failed.

ISS – international cooperation

The International Space Station is a multi-purpose international facility for scientific research, development of advanced technologies and stimulating commercial activities in space. It orbits around the Earth at an altitude of 360km. The construction of this beneficial satellite was a joint effort, bringing together the resources of NASA, the Russian Federal Space Agency, the Japan Aerospace Exploration Agency, the Canadian Space Agency and the European Space Agency. During the early 1980s, the United States planned for the NASA International Space Station to be a counterpart for the Soviet stations Salyut and Mir, but construction was never implemented. The resolution of the Cold War and the end of the race to space triggered international efforts to rekindle the project. [http://www.space.com]

Today the present structure of the International Space Station is half-Russian, half-American. Right now an international consortium is building the ISS. The coming two years should see the addition of two new modules to the ISS – a European and a Japanese one. The ferry service will be provided by Russia with the help of the Soyuz capsule. [http://www.ruvr.ru/news/scienceandtechnology]

The International Space Station is much more than just a research facility; it is an “exciting” city in space with an international crew and ground support group. It will contribute a lot to international cooperation in space.

Objective 4

The need for more open communications about the use of space

Space is something that does not belong to any country or nation. Space is an absolutely unique phenomenon which belongs to everyone on our planet. Citizen of any country has the right to benefit from space. Space offers great prospects for scientific research and technological development. But in reality military programs of some countries envision space as a future battlefield. Space military operations are usually highly secretive, new kinds of space weapons are being developed but as a matter of fact average people know nothing about it. A country’s actions in space should be regulated not only by international space laws and agreements but also by a public opinion. Space issues must be open for everybody, not hidden from people’s interest.

There are a lot of questions of space security that interest us.

Ø If the US is considered the leading space-faring nation, why does it spend so much money and resources on its defense needs?

Ø Is Russia considered to be among the countries which preserve potential danger to the US in space?

Ø Is it possible for terrorist groups to put nuclear weaponry in orbit? If yes, what is the possibility?

Ø What terrorist groups have enough resources to do so?

Ø What organizations are responsible for maintaining security in space?

Ø If any of the State Parties violates the space law, what will be the punishment?

Bibliography

1 James Clay Moltz – Future Security in Space: Commercial, Military, and Arms Control Trade-Offs. Monterey Institute of International Studies, 2002

2 David Wright, Laura Grego and Lisbeth Gronlung – The Physics of Space Security. A Reference Manual.

3 United Nations Treaties and Principles on Outer Space – http://www.unoosa.org

4 National space programs – http://www.en.wikipedia.org

5 The U.S. space projects – http://www.thespacerace.com/programs

6 Trends and directions in space in 2007 – http://www.russianspaceweb.com/

7 V.M. Thomas - India’s space program turns 40 – http://www.space.com/missionlaunches/india

8 India: Launch capabilities – http://cns.miis.edu/research/space/india

9 India Space Program – http://www.indianchild.com

10 India in Space, China in Space – http://www.spacetoday.org/

11 Iran space program – http://www.fas.org/nuke/guide/iran

12 Brazil in Space – http://www.brazilspace.com

13 John F. Graham From Talisman of the Past to Gateway of the Future. – http://www.space.edu

14 The Space Race – http://www.newseum.org

15 China in Space – http://www.newscientist.com

16 E.P. Velikhov – Space-based weapons: Dilemma of Safety (In Russian)

17 Space Weapons- http://www.spacedebate.org/definitions

18 Ballistic Missile Defense – http://www.igcc.ucsd.edu

19 http://www.ruvr.ru/news

20 Missile Defense Timeline – http://www.ucsusa.org

21 http://www.thespacereview.com/article

22 Space-Based Radar – http://www.encyclopedia.thefreedictionary.com

23 http://www.rian.ru/analytics