CRITICAL ISSUES FORUM 2007
SPACE: FORUM FOR
COOPERATION OR NEXT FRONTIER FOR WMD PROLIFERATION?
BENCHMARK III
STUDENT: Dmitri Kuzmik
TEACHER: Olga Sergeyeva
SCHOOL FOR
COSMONAUTICS
ADVISOR: Elena Nekrasova
SIBERIAN YOUTH EDUCATIONAL
INFORMATION CENTER
ZHELEZNOGORSK 2007
Objective 1
1.
Apollo 13 movie review
The movie is based on the book by Jim Lovell
and Jeffery Kluger highlighting the situations occurred with the April 1970
third planned lunar landing mission. Apollo 13 is a true story. The direction
was done very well and all actors were playing great. There was not just one
person carrying the show. Of course Tom Hanks' acting is always enjoyed, but
there were a lot of good actors too. They all worked well and the movie keeps
you waiting to see what happens next. The movie is great from start to finish.
Apollo 13 is made as documental drama and it’s
made quite authentically. In the movie we can even hear some real dialogs and phrases
that were said in the Apollo 13 mission.
But the movie has some differences with
reality.
For example, the final manual burn of the LEM’s engine, done to
put Apollo 13 back in course, lasted 14 seconds, not 39, and was done with the
engine pointed perpendicular to the Earth instead of towards the Earth as
depicted in the film.
The solid rockets on the S-II interstage are shown
as firing some seconds after the S-IC stage was jettisoned, whereas in reality
they fired a fraction of a second before the explosive bolts separated the two
stages.
Credit:Yahoo! Movies
A scene set the night before the launch,
showing the astronaut's family members saying their goodbyes while separated by
a road, a distance introduced to reduce the possibility of any last-minute
transmission of disease, depicted a tradition not begun until the Space Shuttle
program.
Several scenes took dramatic license for cinematic
purposes, including the conflict depicted between Jack Swigert and Fred Haise
as well as the party held at the Lovell's home during the first moon landing.
Many critics criticized the scene where Marilyn
Lovell dropped her ring in the shower as an obvious and unrealistic dramatic
addition.
In my personal opinion
Apollo 13 is the best documental drama with some of the best actors and special
effects. This is a gripping drama to watch. even with some unreal moments.
Credit: NASA
Source: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Apollo_13_(film)
Source: NASA human
journey http://liftoff.msfc.nasa.gov/Academy/History/APOLLO-13/mission-report.html
2.
I think that the accident shown in the movie could have been caused either
by some technical failures or a human factor. In any case the story depicted in
the Apollo 13 movie is a real story which seems quite miraculous – having had
serious problems with systems in space the astronauts returned to earth safe
and sound and made quite a safe landing. I think that the 90’s were the best time
for this movie because it was not the time when the real event happened. Even
minor details of the accident can be thoroughly analysed now. The movie
directors and producers managed to shoot a really smart drama which is
connected space age and space race.
4.
The sequel to the Apollo 13 may not be connected with space flights. In
my opinion the movie should show the past and future life of the crew. The plot
could combine both real and unreal life facts of the characters. It would be a
very smart idea to make a sequel in an interview style. Somebody will ask
questions and the crew will answer them sharing their memories and future plans
as well as some personal facts. Their
relatives, friends, and even rivals could be interviewed as well. The whole
life of the crew beginning from their childhood to the old age could be shown
in the “Apollo 13: Before and After”.
Credit: NASA
5.
In order to avoid similar accidents in space which can even lead to the death
of the crew, it is necessary to take some preventive measures like extra test
flights and emergency trainings for the crew so that they will be able to cope
with any problem in space in case of emergency. Unfortunately, the history of
spaceflight knows some sad examples when the lives of the astronauts were lost.
The specialists should analyze all possible causes of those space tragedies for
them never to be repeated. International cooperation in space research can be
of great help here.
Objective 2 – Scenarios for the Future
1. A response given by the United Nations representative
to a nation’s successful orbiting of a military vehicle.
Dear colleagues, today we have gathered here
to discuss the case of putting an unregistered military object which belongs to
the state of N into orbit.
Acts and agreements regulating activities of nations in space
have been formulated over the past decades.
Our part thinks that the interests of the
leading space-faring nations are directed to non-proliferation of the military
objects and weapons in outer space. The fact of putting an unknown military
object into space violates the Convention on
Registration of Objects Launched into Outer Space which came into force on 15 September
1976.
The launch of this particular military
object can be the evidence of the fact that N has already developed or is in
the process of developing nuclear weapon. Credit: google images
In accordance with Non-Proliferation Treaty there exist only
5 nuclear nations. One more nuclear nation launching military objects into
space can present certain danger to future nuclear-free space perspectives. Our
part doubts the fact that N. has peaceful intentions in space.
Taking into consideration the
above-mentioned facts our part would like to suggest the following solutions to
the problem:
Firstly, to make N. aware of the UN’s
negative attitude towards its actions in space.
Secondly, to insist on N’s deorbiting its
military object and to claim the information about possible nuclear weapons and
nuclear programs under development, to warn N. about possible consequences.
In case N. refuses to do
so, we suggest deorbiting the military object by force and introducing strict political
and economical sanctions towards N.
We urge N. to make decision during a 3-day period.
We are ready to discuss any other suggestons to find a just and
effective solution to the problem.
2. A response to a country that has just
renounced its sophisticated space program given by one of the space-faring
nations.
We’d like to appeal to the state of X. and
to formulate our position concerning its renouncing what has been believed a
sophisticated space program. X. is a highly-developed industrial state
contributing a lot to the world’s technological progress and scientific
research. X. is one of the pioneers in space exploration. X. has great
potential concerning future space missions which could be beneficial to all the
humanity. Future space technologies developed by X. will possibly help solve
numerous problems of developing countries. Being a space-faring nation is a
great responsibility for all the humanity. In this connection we consider it an inappropriate decision to
renounce a sophisticated space program and strongly urge the country to ask for
international help if necessary.
3. Russia and China can be truly called two space-faring nations.
|
China |
Russia |
|
On July 19, 1964, a biological
rocket is launched successfully from Guangde County in east China's Anhui
Province, an important step forward in China's space exploration. The Peoples Republic of China launched its first satellite - known as
China 1 or Mao 1 - to Earth orbit on its own "Long March" space
rocket on April 24, 1970. The launch made China the fifth nation with a space
rocket. Satellites in space: nearly 50 satellites http://www.chinadaily.com.cn/ Budget: More than $2.5 billion Space program: Civilian and military Launches: 24 in last 5 years Priority project: Shenzhou (Space city), which includes a space walk
within the next few years. China plans to repeat the feat on board spaceship
Shenzhou-6. That will set the stage for the second phase of China's space
program, consisting of the flights of Shenzhou-7 and Shenzhou-8, the China
News Service said. During these flights new experiments will be
conducted with space walks and docking. The most important factor that can help China
to develop space industry is evolving technologies. China relies greatly upon foreign technologies and international
cooperation. Chinese space program is ambitious (Moon and
Mars projects) and quickly-developing. China has great potential to explore
space thanks to proper funding. Chinese space budget is two times bigger than
Russia’s. |
But after the USSR had collapsed Russia
couldn’t keep its
positions in space because of financial difficulties. Today the situation is
improving and Russia has managed to gain its status back. In 2006 Russia led
the world in launches. Satellites in space:
More than 100 satellites Budget: $1.3 billion Space program: Civilian and military Launches: 9 during last 5 months Priority project:
Being among the leading space-faring nations Russia still faces some
difficulties. Although Russian federal space budget is expected to expand,
Russian space projects have lack of funding. Besides, some of Russian
spacecrafts are obsolete and need to be upgraded. Russia needs to attract
young specialists in space industry as the average age of a space industry
worker is 46. |
|
Today China cooperates with Russia in some
space projects. And one of the major projects is Phobos. It’s a collaborative
unmanned mission to Mars planned for 2009. It is said that this project will
combine Russian space technologies and Chinese financial possibilities.It’s a
win-win project for both nations [http://www.bbcrussian.com].
|
|
The contribution of both countries in space
exploration and the development of space is great. But in many aspects
concerning space Russia has always been an experienced teacher to China. For
instance, the USSR helped China initiate its own space program in the 1950s. Chinese
taikonauts trained in Russian space centers before flying into space.
Although China stands for peaceful space forming
strategic partnership with Russia some of China’s activities in space can’t be
considered secure. The notorious missile test which led to the destruction of
Chinese orbiting satellite in January 2007 was widely discussed and major
space-faring nations and agencies expressed their negative attitude towards the
incident as this test could pose a real threat to other military and civilian
satellites in orbit. The ground-based, medium-range
ballistic missile knocked an old Chinese weather satellite from its orbit about
537 miles above Earth. The missile carried a "kill vehicle" and
destroyed the satellite by ramming it. Despite Beijing's assurance that
the test was not "aimed" at anyone, China's use of an ASAT weapon to
destroy a satellite raises a number of questions about Beijing's intentions in
space. Beijing has appeared in the past to take the moral high ground with
regards to space arms control. Chinese diplomats have called for controls on
the weaponization of space for over a decade despite a lack of reciprocity from
the United States. The test appears to lend some credibility to that view. [http://www.cns.miis.edu]. China and its
military leaders have been widely criticized for their decision to test an ASAT
weapon. The USA, Canada, Australia registered
protests, Japan said it was worrisome, Britain complained about lack of
consultation and potential damage from the debris it left behind. [http://www.cnn.com]
Credit: bbc.co.uk
Objective 3 - Incidents
1.
Scientifically, it is useful to divide the
impact hazard into two types of events: those with local consequences and those
with global consequences. On the low end of the local scale is the fall of
meteorites. These impacts are not known to have caused any serious human
injuries in modern times. Progenitors for such meteorite falls are probably
bodies only a few meters across. Bodies 50 meters across having modest
strengths are likely to strike the ground intact, creating a crater and a local
explosion. The 1908 airburst over the Tunguska River in Siberia was probably
due to the atmospheric entry of a comet or weak asteroid about 50 meters
across.
Had the Tunguska blast, which leveled 1,000
square kilometers (400 square miles) of forest, occurred over a populated area,
the result would have been a devastating disaster with a death toll equivalent
to or exceeding such other natural disasters as floods, hurricanes, and
tsunamis. A Tunguska-like event probably occurs somewhere on Earth's surface
once every 1,000 years or so. Estimating that only 10 percent of Earth's
surface is lightly or densely populated, a threat to humans from such an impact
is likely to occur once every 10,000 years. Looking at it another way,
the risk for a Tunguska-sized impact on a lightly or densely populated area is
about 1 percent per century.
Credit: AP
What distinguishes
"local" impacts from "global" impacts are the responses of
Earth's ecosystem and inhabitants. While the occurrence of a Tunguska-like or
larger event over a major city would be an unprecedented human disaster, the consequences to the worldwide ecosystem
and climate would be minimal.
A global event is one
where impact fallout (dust lofted into the stratosphere, smoke from wildfires,
and so on) causes global climate change sufficient to disrupt worldwide
agriculture and threaten mass starvation. For a global event, all citizens of
the world are endangered, regardless of where on Earth the impact takes place
-- inhabited or uninhabited areas, northern or southern hemisphere, land or
ocean.
Most estimates suggest
that an impacting stony asteroid about 1.5 kilometers (1 mile) across or larger
marks the threshold energy for causing a globally devastating event.
Let’s evaluate the hazard and relate it to
everyday life. . Tunguska-like events occur on average once every 1,000 years
and are likely to directly result in your death only if you happen to be within
the approximately 1,000-square-kilometer (400-square-mile) region of devastation.
Given the surface area of Earth, it is fortunate that there is only a 1 in
500,000 chance that you would be at the wrong patch of the planet at the wrong
time.
Thus, in any given
year, there is only a 1 in 500 million chance that you will die from a
Tunguska-like impact. Over a human lifetime, which we round up to an even 100
years for simplicity, it would seem there is only a 1 in 5 million chance that
a Tunguska-like impact will result in your untimely death. A 1 in 5 million
chance may be small enough that most people would give it little practical
concern.
Credit: Google images
What about the
comparative hazard from much less frequent global-scale impacts? If we assume
that such events occur only once every million years but are so devastating to
the climate that the ultimate result is the death of one-quarter of the world's
population, this translates to an annual chance of 1 in 4 million that you will
die from a large cosmic impact even if you happen to be far removed from the
impact site. Integrated over a century, our simple metric for a human lifetime,
the chance becomes 1 in 40,000 that a large cosmic impact will be the cause of
your death. Such a probability is in the realm that most people consider a
practical concern. [http://www.planetary.org]
Initial
calculations indicate there is a chance the 1.2 mile-wide asteroid - known as
2002 NT7 — will hit the Earth on Feb. 1, 2019. But scientists said Wednesday
that the calculations are preliminary and the risk to the planet is low.
"The threat is very minimal," Donald Yeomans, of NASA's Jet
Propulsion Laboratory in Pasadena, Calif., told British Broadcasting Corp.
radio. "An object of this size would be expected to hit the Earth every
few million years, and as we get additional data I think this threat will go
away." [http://www.cbsnews.com]
2.
Certainly the most important
consequence of any incident at launch of a nuclear space object is the release
of radiation. How dangerous the consequences will be depends upon the quantity
of radioactive material onboard. But
there are few chances that only a small area of the ground will be infected and
nobody will suffer. An
"enormous disaster" could result with the spread of the plutonium. Because
a fatal dose of plutonium is just a millionth of a gram, anyone breathing just
the tiniest particle of plutonium dispersed in an accident could die. In the event of plutonium release "costs may include: temporary or
longer term relocation of residents; temporary or longer term loss of
employment; destruction or quarantine of agricultural products, land use
restrictions which could affect real estate values, tourism and recreational
activities; restrictions or bans on commercial fishing; and public health
effects and medical care."
The cost to decontaminate land on which the
plutonium falls would range from "about $241 million to $1.3 billion per
square mile." [http://www.commondreams.org]
Bibliography
1 Apollo-13 - http://science.ksc.nasa.gov/history/apollo/apollo-13/
3 Apollo 13 – Movie details – Yahoo! Movies
4 Space Arms Race: China’s ASAT Test a Wake-up call – http://www.cns.miis.edu
5 Russia and China in space – http://www.NEWSru.com
6 http://www.spacenews.ru
7 http://www.rian.ru/technology/cosmos/
8 US official: Chinese test missile obliterates
satellite - http://www.cnn.com
9 http://www.bbcrussian.com
10 hhtp://www.prime-tass.ru/news
11 The statement by Ambassador Valery Loschinin
- http://www.geneva.mid.ru/speeches
12 Space Junk - http://www.space.com/scienceastronomy/
13 Space Topics: Sizing Up the Threat - http://www.planetary.org/explore/topics/
14 1908 Siberia Explosion - http://www.psi.edu/projects/siberia/
15 Collision Course with Earth - http://www.cbsnews.com
16 Past
Space Nuclear Power System Accidents – http://www.nuclearspace.com
17 Plutonium Launch Accident Could Have Global
Implications - http://www.commondreams.org