Sarov

Nizhni Novgorod Region

Gymnazia № 2

Nuclear Disarmament:

Challenges, Opportunities and Next Steps

Students: Teacher:

Denis Kalyapin Alexandra Krasina

Georgy Tolushkin

Irina Naidanova

Ivan Laptev

Alexander Ovsepyan

Kristina Smirnova

Mikhail Fomin

Kseniya Shyrokova

Anna Klitina

Alexey Leonov

Grade 10

2009

Benchmark II – Control of Nuclear Weapons and Current Challenges

Contents

1. Introduction

2. International organizations and treaties dealing with nuclear disarmament and non-proliferation

1. History of non-proliferation
2. International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA)
3. Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT)
4. Nuclear-free zones

3. Challenges to nuclear disarmament in the modern world

1. Difference reasons for acquiring NW
2. The NW Club
3. Other known nuclear powers (Asian countries)
4. Undeclared nuclear states (Middle East)

4. Challenges of monitoring and verification of nuclear weapons

1. Treaties regulating monitoring and verification of nuclear weapons
2. Ways of control and verification

5. Reference materials

I. Introduction

My tasks in this work are:

1. to reveal the history of nonproliferation paying special attention to

• the reasons for international efforts to stop nuclear proliferation,

• the key treaties,

• the role of the International Atomic Energy Agency and

• the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty;

2. to show challenges to nuclear disarmament in the world today describing

• the difference between reasons for acquiring NW by various countries speaking in

detail about

• the NW Club,

• other known nuclear powers, and

• undeclared nuclear states

3. to show the challenges of present-day monitoring and verification

• naming the treaties regulating these activities and

• describing different ways of them.

II. International organization and treaties dealing with nuclear disarmament and non-proliferation.

1. History of non-proliferation

To research into the issues of nuclear disarmament and non-proliferation we should define these terms. This will help us deal with the topic.

“NUCLEAR PROLIFERATION is the spread of nuclear weapons, fissile material, and weapons-applicable nuclear technology and information, to nations which are not recognized as “nuclear weapon States” by the Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons.” (8)

“NUCLEAR NON-PROLIFERATION is the limiting of the number of nuclear weapons in the world, especially by stopping countries that do not yet have them from developing them. “(1)

“NUCLEAR DISARMAMENT is the proposed dismantling of nuclear weapons.”(8)

How has man come to realize the necessity of such measures as nuclear non-proliferation and disarmament?

During World War II, the enemy states toiled to create nuclear weapons which were many times more powerful than ordinary weapons. The US was the first to succeed and after they had bombarded Hiroshima and Nagasaki with atom bombs, the whole world could witness how dangerous and destructive these weapons were. A lot of people started to enforce a ban against the creation of nuclear weapons or at least to stop their proliferation as the danger of nuclear war and the possession of NW became apparent to everybody.

After the end of World War II, the US and the Soviet Union tried to make an agreement on these issues but they failed as their goals were completely different. The Baruch plan proposed by the Truman Administration in 1946 suggested that an international atomic organization should be set up and a system of automatic sanctions should be created which would punish states trying to make nuclear weapons or fissile materials. The US was against further nuclear proliferation whereas the USSR couldn’t agree to this plan as they were toiling to create their own NW at the moment. The Soviet Union suggested complete disarmament which in its turn couldn’t be accepted by the US which was not going to get rid of their NW. For several years nonproliferation process was blocked.

Still, strong popular movement against NW and nuclear testing developed. During the second half of the 20^th century, a series of international treaties were agreed and even entered into force as well as some international organizations to control nuclear materials and activities were established. All these steps towards creating a NW free world were made in the following directions: 1. establishment of international organizations, 2. making non-proliferation treaties, 3. disarmament treaties and 4. test ban treaties.

International organizations dealing with nuclear energy and nuclear weapons

In order to unite efforts to lessen the probability of nuclear war and to control the use of nuclear energy states set up different international organizations. The largest and most powerful is the United Nations (UN) which officially came into existence on 24 October 1945. Its “stated aims are to facilitate cooperation in international law, international security, economic development, social progress, human rights and achieving world peace.” (7) But it doesn’t deal specifically with nuclear energy or nuclear weapons issues.

The United Nations General Assembly (UNGA / GA) is one of the five principal organs of the United Nations where representatives of different nations and states can widely and openly debate international problems and make recommendations in the form of General Assembly Resolutions. The first resolution adopted by the UNGA in 1946 proclaimed “the establishment of a Commission to Deal with the Problems Raised by the Discovery of Atomic Energy.” (14) This commission was set up “for control of atomic energy to the extent necessary to ensure its use only for peaceful purposes” (14) as well as “for the elimination from national armaments of atomic weapons and of all other major weapons adaptable to mass destruction.” (14)

The United Nations Security Council (UNSC) which is also one of the principal organs of the UN deals with the maintenance of international peace and security so it is charged as well with nuclear energy and nuclear weapons problems.

And of course, the main international body to control and develop the use of atomic energy is the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) (see further).

There exist many other organizations and networks that distribute information and put pressure on governments in order to keep the world free from nuclear danger. Among them are Campaign for Nuclear Disarmament (it was formed in1957, advocates unilateral nuclear disarmament by Britain and also campaigns for international nuclear disarmament), Pugwash Conferences on Science and World Affairs (it was founded in1957 by Robert Rotblat, an international organization that brings together scientists and political leaders to discuss issues of reducing the danger of armed conflict and to seek solutions to global security threats), the Council for a Livable World (it was founded by Leo Scillard in 1962, focuses on political action to reduce nuclear weapons and increase national security) and others.

Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty

In our opinion, it’s the most important treaty in the sphere of lessening nuclear threat as it unites the largest number of member states and it limits the spread of nuclear weapons (see further).

Disarmament treaties

Proponents of nuclear disarmament say that it would lessen the probability of nuclear war occurring, especially accidentally. Critics of nuclear disarmament say that it would undermine deterrence, which, through the possession and threatened use of nuclear weapons, has kept the world free of nuclear war since 1945. However, all of them understand that the quantity of nuclear arsenals should be reduced. Otherwise, they are sure to destroy some day our planet as well as the human race itself.

This table shows the most important international disarmament treaties.

Disarmament treaties

Treaty	Signature	Ratification	Issues	Members
SALT I (Interim Agreement on Offensive Arms)	1972	1972	A freeze in the number of intercontinental ballistic missiles (ICBMs) and submarine-launched ballistic missiles (SLBMs)	The Soviet Union, The United States
SALT II (Strategic Arms Limitation Treaty)	1979	1979	Limitation to an equal number of ICBM launchers, and heavy bombers	The Soviet Union, The United States
START I (Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty)	1991	1994	Limitation of long-range nuclear forces in the US and the newly independent states of the former Soviet Union	The United States, the Russian Federation
START II (Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty II)	1993	Never put into force	Agreement to deploy no more than 3,000 to 3,500 warheads by December 2007 plus prohibition against deploying multiple independent reentry vehicles on intercontinental ballistic missiles	The Soviet Union, The United States
SORT or Moscow Treaty (Strategic Offensive Reductions Treaty)	2002	2003	Reduction of strategic nuclear warheads	The Soviet Union, The United States

(Made by Denis Kalyapin)

Test ban treaties

Arms control advocates have been campaigning for the adoption of a treaty banning all nuclear explosions since the early 1950s, when public concern was aroused as a result of radioactive fall-out from atmospheric nuclear tests and the escalating arms race. Thus for example, between 16 July 1945, when the first nuclear explosive test was conducted by the United States at Alamogordo, New Mexico, and 31 December 1953, more than 50 nuclear explosions were registered. As a result of the campaigners’ efforts some very important international treaties have been enforced.

On August 5, 1963, the Partial Test Ban Treaty (PTBT) or Limited Test Ban Treaty (LTBT) was signed in Moscow by the Governments of the USSR (represented by Andrei Gromyko), the UK (represented by Sir Alec Douglas-Home) and the USA (represented by Dean Rusk) and opened for signature by other countries. This treaty prohibits all test explosions of nuclear weapons except underground. It was developed both to slow the arms race and to stop the excessive release of nuclear fallout into the planet's atmosphere.

President Kennedy ratifies the Limited Nuclear Test Ban Treaty

in the Treaty Room at the White House on October 7, 1963

(http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Partial_Test_Ban_Treaty)

The Comprehensive Nuclear-Test-Ban Treaty (CTBT) bans all nuclear explosions in all environments, for military or civilian purposes.

The Treaty was opened for signature in New York on 24 September 1996, when it was signed by 71 States, including five of the eight then nuclear-capable states. The CTBT has now been signed by 180 states and ratified by 146. On 16 January 2007, Moldova ratified the CTBT, completing the ratification of the treaty by all the states of Europe. India and Pakistan, though not nuclear weapons states as defined by the Nuclear Nonproliferation Treaty (NPT), did not sign; neither did the Democratic People's Republic of Korea (North Korea). India and Pakistan conducted back-to-back nuclear tests in 1998, while North Korea withdrew from the NPT in 2003 and tested a nuclear device in 2006. Unfortunately, this treaty has never come into force.

2. International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA)

The IAEA is an international and intergovernmental forum for scientific and technical co-operation in the peaceful use of nuclear technology. On the one hand, it encourages the development of the peaceful applications of nuclear energy and on the other hand, it inhibits the use of nuclear energy for military purposes. The IAEA works independently of the United Nations under its own Statute. Nevertheless, it reports to both the General Assembly and the Security Council.

IAEA headquarters

(http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/International_Atomic_Energy_Agency)

The IAEA was established as an autonomous organization on 29 July 1957. Its headquarters are situated in Vienna, Austria.

The main pillars of the IAEA’s work are safety and security, science and technology, and safeguards and verification. So it “pursues the following functions: making inspections of existing nuclear facilities to ensure peaceful use, giving information and standards to ensure the stability of nuclear facilities and serving as a hub for the sciences seeking peaceful applications of nuclear technology.”(9) It’s worth noting that in 2005, the organization and its Director General, Mohamed ElBaradei, were jointly awarded the Nobel Peace Prize.

The IAEA has three main bodies: the Board of Governors, the General Conference, and the Secretariat.

The Board of Governors is one of two policy making bodies of the IAEA. The Board consists of 13 members designated by the outgoing Board from the most advanced members in atomic energy technology and 22 members elected by the General Conference from the remaining members. The current Board members are: Afghanistan, Albania, Algeria, Argentina, Australia, Brazil, Burkina Faso, Canada, China, Cuba, Ecuador, Egypt, Finland, France, Germany, Ghana, India, Iraq, Ireland, Japan, Lithuania, Malaysia, Mexico, New Zealand, Philippines, Romania, Russian Federation, Saudi Arabia, South Africa, Spain, Switzerland, Turkey, United Kingdom, United States of America, Uruguay. The Board meets five times a year to make most of the policy of the IAEA and is responsible for publishing IAEA standards.

The General Conference (GC) is the highest policymaking body of the IAEA. The GC is made up of all 144 member states. It meets once a year to serve as a forum for debate on the current issues and policies. Also, it approves the actions and budgets passed on from the board of Governors and the nominee for Director General.

The Secretariat is the professional and general service staff of the IAEA. It’s headed by the Director General. The Director General is selected by the Board and approved by the GC for renewable four year terms.

The process of joining the IAEA is fairly simple. A State must notify the Director General of its desire to join and the Director and then submit the request to the Board for consideration.

3. Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty

The Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons, also Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT) is a treaty to limit the spread of nuclear weapons. It was opened for signature on July 1, 1968. There are currently 189 countries party to the treaty. Five states are recognized by the NPT as nuclear weapon states (NWS). These are the United States, the United Kingdom, France, Russia, and the People's Republic of China .All of them are the permanent members of the UN Security Council.

NWS

State	Year of signature
The United States	1968
The Soviet Union (obligations and rights now assumed by Russia)	1968
The United Kingdom	1968
France	1992
The People’s Republic of China	1992

(Made by Georgy Tolushkin)

Only four states that are known or alleged to possess NW are not parties to the treaty: India, Israel, Pakistan and North Korea. India, Pakistan and North Korea have openly tested and possess nuclear weapons. North Korea acceded to the treaty, violated it, and later withdrew. Israel has had a policy of opacity regarding its own nuclear weapons program.

The treaty was proposed by Ireland in 1958, and Finland was the first to sign. The signing parties decided by consensus to extend the treaty indefinitely and without conditions upon meeting in New York City on May 11, 1995.

The NPT consists of a preamble and eleven articles. The preamble expresses the reasons for making this treaty. The parties to the treaty came to the agreement as they had realized “the devastation that would be visited upon all mankind by a nuclear war and the consequent need to make every effort to avert the danger of such a war and to take measures to safeguard the security of peoples”. They also believed that “the proliferation of nuclear weapons would seriously enhance the danger of nuclear war”. That’s why they decided to sign, ratify the treaty and follow its principles.

The pillars of the NPT (though they are not called so in the treaty itself) are considered to be: non-proliferation, disarmament, and the right to peacefully use nuclear technology.

Non-Proliferation

This principle is based on the determination of each nuclear-weapon state “not to transfer, to any recipient whatsoever nuclear weapons or other nuclear explosive devices… and not in any way to assist, encourage, or induce any non-nuclear weapon State to manufacture or otherwise acquire nuclear weapons or devices.” (Article I) (13) Also, each non-nuclear-weapon state “undertakes not to receive the transfer from any transferor whatsoever of nuclear weapons or other nuclear explosive devices… and not to manufacture or otherwise acquire nuclear weapons or other nuclear explosive devices; and not to seek or receive any assistance in the manufacture of nuclear weapons or other nuclear explosive devices”. (Article II)

(13)

What’s more, NNW states agree for the application of the IAEA’s safeguards to all nuclear material “to prevent diversion of such material to nuclear weapons or other nuclear explosive devices”. (Article III) (13)

Disarmament

In the preamble, the treaty signatories express their desire to ease international tension and strengthen international trust so as to create someday the conditions for a halt to the production of nuclear weapons.

Article VI states that “each of the Parties to the Treaty undertakes to pursue negotiations in good faith on effective measures relating to cessation of the nuclear arms race at an early date and to nuclear disarmament and on a Treaty on general and complete disarmament under strict and effective international control”. (13) Frankly speaking, the treaty doesn’t contain any strict requirements as far as disarmament is concerned.

Peaceful Use of Nuclear Energy

According to Article IV, “nothing in this Treaty shall be interpreted as affecting the inalienable right of all the Parties to the Treaty to develop research, production and use of nuclear energy for peaceful purposes without discrimination and in conformity with Articles I and II of this Treaty”. (13) Article V states that each NWS undertakes to make “potential benefits from any peaceful applications of nuclear explosions… available” to NNWS and what’s more important “the charge will be as low as possible”. (13) But the right of any state for the spread of enrichment and reprocessing capabilities (ENR) is no doubt the weak point of the nuclear non-proliferation regime. Countries possessing ENR capabilities have an opportunity to use this capability to produce fissile material for weapons use. At the moment, thirty-five to forty- states could have the knowledge to acquire nuclear weapons.

The treaty is open to all states for signature (Article IX). At the same time, any party-state has the right to withdraw from the treaty (Article X). Article XI says that the treaty is written in English, Russian, French, Spanish and Chinese, the most widely spread languages of international relations.

Weak points of the NPT

The impetus behind the NPT was concern for the safety of a world with a number of nuclear weapon states. Its pillars do work helping deter and lessen the nuclear war threat as well as ease international tension. Nevertheless, the treaty has its weak points.

Non-party states

States that are not signatories to the treaty don’t think themselves obliged to follow the NPT principles. Thus, India, Israel, and Pakistan have declined to sign the treaty. India and Pakistan have publicly announced possession of nuclear weapons and exploded nuclear devices in tests (India – in 1974, Pakistan – in 1998). Israel is suspected to have been developing nuclear weapons since 1958 and to have now between 100 to 200 warheads. The Israeli government refuses to confirm or deny possession of nuclear weapons although this is now regarded as an open secret.

Withdrawal from the Treaty

The first and only state ever to withdraw from the treaty is North Korea. It ratified the treaty in 1985, but announced withdrawal from the treaty in 2003. In 2005, North Korea publicly declared that it possessed nuclear weapons and in 2006, the North Korean government announced that they had completed a successful underground test of a nuclear fission device. This negative example can be followed by other states and this is

Nuclear weapons sharing

During the years of negotiations towards the treaty, the United States provided nuclear weapons to be deployed by, and stored in, other NATO states. The US still provides a number of tactical nuclear bombs in some NATO states. This may be considered as an act of proliferation violating Articles I and II of the treaty. The danger of the situation is that the pilots and other staff of the "non-nuclear" NATO states practice handling and delivering the U.S. nuclear bombs.

On the other hand, we have a good example of non-proliferation process. After the fall of the Soviet Union, a number of former Soviet republics (Belarus, Ukraine, and Kazakhstan) found themselves in possession of Soviet nuclear weapons, but they were destroyed or transferred to Russia (who took responsibility and ownership of the Soviet arsenal) in exchange for security assurances and financial compensation from the United States and the Russian Federation.

4. Nuclear-Free Zones

“A nuclear-free zone is an area where nuclear weapons and nuclear power are banned.” (19)

Many local authorities worldwide have declared themselves "nuclear-free". But this term is symbolic to a great extent as most local authorities would be powerless to stop the construction of a nuclear plant if one was planned for the area. Still, it should be noted that there is a vast potential for progress in disarmament if the global approach is supplemented with efforts at the regional level. Take some examples of this process.

Nuclear-free Kobe Port, seen from a harbour cruise boat in 2003 (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nuclear-free_zone)

Japan as the only state suffered from nuclear bomb attack holds to the Three Non-Nuclear Principles which state that nuclear weapons shall not be manufactured in, possessed by, or allowed entry into Japan. However, Japan does make widespread use of nuclear power plants.

Some Canadian cities have announced themselves nuclear-free. Among them are Vancouver, Victoria (British Columbia) and Red Deer (Alberta).

Austria is a nuclear free zone, because when a nuclear power station was built during the 1970s at Zwentendorf, Austria, its start-up was prevented by a popular vote in 1978.

The President of Finland Urho Kekkonen made an initiative (Nuclear weapons-free Nordic) to prevent the Nordic countries from becoming a nuclear battleground and a route for cruise missiles in the event of a nuclear war between the Soviet Union and NATO. However, nuclear energy is used in Finland and Sweden.

In Australia there is an active antinuclear movement and the country has no nuclear weapons or nuclear power stations. However it has run a research nuclear reactor since 1958. Also, nuclear weapons have been tested by the UK in Australia at Maralinga, Emu Field and the Monte Bello Islands. Australia also mines and sells a large quantity of uranium ore.

New Zealand in 1984 barred nuclear-powered or nuclear-armed ships from using New Zealand ports or entering New Zealand waters.

Information workshops at the 3-day Music & Alternatives festival, Nambassa, New Zealand 1978

(http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nuclear-free_zone)

The Nuclear Free Zone Movement in the United Kingdom was very strong in early 1980s, up to 200 local authorities declared themselves to be 'nuclear free'. The first 'Nuclear Free Zone' in the UK was Manchester City Council in1980 - this still exists to this day. Wales became 'nuclear free' in 1982.

The 1980-s were important for the US, too. A number of cities in the United States established themselves as Nuclear-Free Zones in the period.

One of the first in the country and most prominent is Takoma Park, Maryland, which was officially declared a nuclear-free zone in 1983. . A citizen committee of the local city council continues to monitor city contracts. Thus, “in September 2005, Takoma Park took a stand against the transportation of high-level nuclear waste through the City”. (19) Another nuclear-free community is Berkeley, California, “whose citizens passed the Nuclear Free Berkeley Act in 1986 which allows the city to levy fines for nuclear weapons-related activity and to boycott companies involved in the United States nuclear infrastructure”. (19)

Davis, another city from California, is also declared to be a nuclear-free zone.

Two billboards in Davis, California advertising its nuclear-free policy

(http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nuclear-free_zone)

The process of nuclear-free zones spread is going on and it gives hope for the peaceful future of the world.

III. Challenges to nuclear disarmament in the modern world

1. Different reasons for acquiring NW

Creating, possessing and developing nuclear weapons require a great deal of financial, intellectual and industrial resources. Rather few countries can afford them. However, nuclear weapons guarantee great power status and deter possible enemy states. So, it’s natural that some states have a desire to in spite of all the dangers they can cause.

Still, there is quite and evident difference between the reasons for acquiring nuclear weapons by states during World War II, the Cold War and at the present moment.

Nations that are known or believed to possess nuclear weapons are sometimes referred to as the nuclear club. There are currently nine states that have successfully detonated nuclear weapons. Five are considered to be "nuclear weapons states", an internationally recognized status conferred by the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT). In order of acquisition of nuclear weapons these are: the United States, Russia (successor state to the Soviet Union), the United Kingdom, France, and China.

The first two, the United States and the Soviet Union, developed their nuclear weapons in order not to let fascist Germany make them first, while the other two, the United Kingdom and France, needed to have a powerful deterrent against the USSR during the Cold War. The last one of the NWS, China, developed its NW as a deterrent against both the US and the USSR. After these five powers detonated their nuclear bombs and realized what devastation their arsenals could cause in a case of a nuclear catastrophe they tried their best to come to an agreement and produce an international treaty preventing from further nuclear proliferation. The result of their efforts was the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty that was open for signature in 1968.

Since the NPT entered into force in 1970, three states that were not parties to the Treaty have conducted nuclear tests, namely India, Pakistan, and North Korea. North Korea had been a party to the NPT but withdrew in 2003. Israel is also widely believed to have nuclear weapons, though it has refused to confirm or deny this. (8) The status of these nations is not formally recognized by international bodies as none of them are currently parties to the NPT. South Africa has the unique status of a nation which developed nuclear weapons but has since disassembled its arsenal before joining the NPT.

In 2005, the IAEA Board of Governors found Iran in non-compliance with its NPT safeguards agreement in a rare non-consensus decision. (8) The UN Security Council imposed sanctions against Iran three times when it refused to suspend its previously undeclared enrichment. Iran has argued that the sanctions are illegal and compel it to abandon its rights under the NPT to peaceful nuclear technology.

These new NW powers or those suspected to be such ones consider nuclear weapons as a deterrent against their enemies maintaining their national security as well as a means of confirmation of their great regional power status.

2. The NW Club

The United States

The United States developed the first atomic weapons during World War II in co-operation with the United Kingdom and Canada as part of the Manhattan Project, out of the fear that Nazi Germany would develop them first. It tested the first nuclear weapon in 1945 ("Trinity"), and remains the only country to have used nuclear weapons against another nation, during the atomic bombings of Hiroshima and Nagasaki.

The Russian Federation

The Soviet Union started developing its Nuclear weapons not to let Germany be the first to make them. It tested its first nuclear weapon ("Joe-1") in 1949, in a crash project developed partially with espionage obtained during and after World War II. The USSR was the second nation to have developed and tested a nuclear weapon. During the Cold War, the direct motivation for their weapons development was the development of a balance of power. After its dissolution in 1991, the Soviets' weapons entered officially into the possession of Russia.

The United Kingdom

The United Kingdom tested its first nuclear weapon ("Hurricane") in 1952, drawing largely on data gained while collaborating with the United States during the Manhattan Project. The UK was the first nation in Western Europe to have developed and tested a nuclear weapon. Its program was motivated to have an independent deterrent against the USSR, while also remaining relevant in Cold War Europe.

France

France tested its first nuclear weapon in 1960 ("Gerboise Bleue"), based mostly on its own research. It was motivated by the Suez Crisis diplomatic tension vis-à-vis both the USSR and the Free World allies United States and United Kingdom. It was also relevant to retain great power status, alongside the United Kingdom, during the post-colonial Cold War. After the Cold War, France has disarmed 175 warheads with the reduction and modernization of its arsenal. However new nuclear weapons are in development. In January 2006, President Jacques Chirac stated a terrorist act or the use of weapons of mass destruction against France would result in a nuclear counterattack.

China

China tested its first nuclear weapon in 1964 in the 596 test. The weapon was developed as a deterrent against both the United States and the USSR. It tested its first hydrogen bomb in 1967 at Lop Nur. The country is currently thought to have had a stockpile of around 130 warheads.

3. Other known nuclear powers (Asian countries)

India

India has never been a member of the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty. India tested what it called a "peaceful nuclear explosive" in 1974 (which became known as "Smiling Buddha"); however, most of the international community thought that the test was mainly a weapons test. The test was the first test developed after the creation of the NPT, and created new questions about how civilian nuclear technology could be diverted secretly to weapons purposes (dual-use technology). India's secret development caused great concern and anger particularly from nations that had supplied it nuclear reactors for peaceful and power generating needs such as Canada. It appears to have been primarily motivated as a general deterrent, as well as an attempt to project India as regional power. In July 2005, U.S. President George W. Bush and Indian Prime Minister Manmohan Singh announced plans to conclude an Indo-US civilian nuclear agreement. This came to fruition through a series of steps culminating in the signature of U.S.-India agreement for civil nuclear cooperation in October 2008. The United States is bound by the Hyde Act with India and may cease all cooperation with India if India detonates a nuclear explosive device.

In 2005, India was estimated to have a stockpile of around 100-140 warheads. In addition, India announced that in the next five to seven years it will have 300–400 nuclear and thermonuclear weapons distributed to air, sea, and land forces. India is supposed to currently possess enough separated plutonium to produce and maintain an arsenal of 1,000-2,000 warheads.

Pakistan

Pakistan is not a member of the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty either. Pakistan secretly developed nuclear weapons over many decades, beginning in the late 1970s. Pakistan first delved into nuclear power after the establishment of its first nuclear power plant near Karachi with equipment and materials supplied mainly by western nations in the early 1970s. Pakistani Prime Minister Zulfiqar Ali Bhutto promised in 1965 that if India built nuclear weapons Pakistan would too, "even if we have to eat grass." It is nearly certain that China only supplied (sold) 5000 critical ring magnets to Pakistan in the early 1980s, and enabled Pakistan to have a rudimentary nuclear weapons capability by the end of the 1980s. In 1998, Pakistan conducted its first nuclear tests at the Chagai Hills, in response to the tests conducted by India a few weeks before.

North Korea

North Korea was a member of the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty, but announced a withdrawal on January 10, 2003 after the United States accused it of having a secret uranium enrichment program and cut off energy assistance under the 1994 Agreed Framework. On October 9, 2006 North Korea reported a successful nuclear test. Most experts believe that North Korea did, in fact, test a nuclear device; however, most agree that the test was probably only partially successful. The yield may have been less than a kiloton, which is much smaller than the first successful tests of other powers; however, boosted fission weapons may have an unboosted yield in this range, which is sufficient to start deuterium-tritium fusion in the boost gas at the center; the fast neutrons from fusion then insure a full fission yield.

4. Undeclared nuclear states (Middle East)

Iran

Iran is believed to have had for a long time an active nuclear weapons program and to be technically capable of producing enough highly enriched uranium for a weapon. At the same time Iran categorically rejects the development of nuclear weapons and affirms that it is guaranteed the right to peaceful nuclear technology under the NPT.

Syria

Syria has also been suspected to construct some nuclear reactor. Thus, in 2007 Israel bombed an officially unidentified site in Syria and later asserted that it was a nuclear reactor under construction. In 2008 the US governmental officials reported that Syria had been building a covert nuclear reactor that was not intended for peaceful purposes. But Syria called such affirmations fabrication and forging of facts.

Israel

Israel is not a member of the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty and refuses to officially confirm or deny having a nuclear arsenal, or having developed nuclear weapons, or even having a nuclear weapons program. Israel has pledged not to be the first country to introduce nuclear weapons into the region, but is also pursuing a policy of strategic ambiguity with regard to their possession.

IV. Challenges of monitoring and verification of nuclear weapons

1. Treaties regulating monitoring and verification of nuclear weapons

Since the beginning of the nuclear era, various international treaties have been made in order to lessen the probability of nuclear war and to control the use of nuclear energy. These treaties not only proclaim world nations’ determination “to make every effort to avert the danger of such a war” but also designate measures to safeguard the fulfillment of the principles/pillars of the treaties. The main treaties which regulate non-proliferation, limitation of nuclear weapons and disarmament process are the NPT, SALT I and SALT II, START I and START II and SORT or Moscow Treaty. As for the peaceful use of nuclear energy, the IAEA is a special organization that controls this sphere if international life. (See above)

2. Ways of control and verification

Monitoring and verification of modernization, development and use of nuclear weapons are carried out in various forms: visual inspections, detection, remote sensing and other methods. With the help of inspections of NW sites, nuclear power stations or plants dealing with nuclear materials as well as analysis of budgets, accounts and different reports specialists can detect violations of treaties principles with undeclared activities and diversion of nuclear materials. Remote sensing helps find out that these or those states or organizations have exploded nuclear devices. Thus, before these states declared nuclear testing specialists had registered the explosions made by North Korea (2006), India (1974), and Pakistan (1998). Great nuclear powers such as the US, Russia and some others also use espionage to get detailed data about nuclear activities in various countries.

VI. Reference materials

1. Exams Dictionary. Pearson Education Limited. Harlow. 2006
2. Dictionary of American English. Pearson Education Limited. Harlow. 2002
3. G.M. Pshakin. N.I. Geraskin and others. Nuclear Non-proliferation. Moscow Engineer Physicist Institute. 2006
4. V.A.Orlov and N.N. Sokov. Nuclear Non-Proliferation. Political Research Centre. Moscow. 2002
5. R.M. Timerbayev. Russia and Nuclear Non-proliferation. Moscow. Nauka. 1999
6. The Museum of Nuclear Weapons. Russian Federal Nuclear Centre –VNIIEF. Sarov. 2005
7. “United Nations”

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_Nations

8. “Nuclear Proliferation” 20 Feb. 2009

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nuclear_proliferation

9. “International Atomic Energy Agency“ 20 Feb. 2009

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/International_Atomic_Energy_Agency

10. “Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty” 20 Feb. 2009

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nuclear_Non-Proliferation_Treaty

11. “Comprehensive Nuclear Test Ban Treaty“ 22 Feb. 2009

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Comprehensive_Nuclear-Test-Ban_Treaty

12. “Partial Test Ban Treaty” 22 Feb. 2009

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Partial_Test_Ban_Treaty

13. “Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons” 23 Feb. 2009

http://www.iaea.org/Publications/Documents/Infcircs/Others/infcirc140.pdf

14. ”UN. Resolutions” 13 Mar. 2009” http://daccessdds.un.org/doc/RESOLUTION/GEN/NR0/032/52/IMG/NR003252.pdf?OpenElement
15. “United Nations Office for Disarmament Affairs (UNODA)” 1 Mar. 2009

http://disarmament.un.org/dda.htm

16. “Regional Disarmament” 25 Feb. 2009

http://www.un.org/disarmament/disarmsec/index.shtml

17. “Nuclear Disarmament” 25 Feb. 2009

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nuclear_disarmament

18. “Nuclear Free World Policy” 6 Mar. 2009

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nuclear_Free_World_Policy

19. “Nuclear Free Zone” 6 Mar. 2009

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nuclear-free_zone

20. “History of nuclear weapons”. 22 Jan. 2009

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/History_of_nuclear_weapons

21. “Nuclear testing”. 06 Feb. 2009

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nuclear_testing

22. “List of states with nuclear weapons”. 31 Jan. 2009

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_states_with_nuclear_weapons

23. Dr. Nikolai Sokov “Modernization of Strategic Nuclear Weapons in Russia: The Emerging New Posture” CNS Senior Research Associate, May 1998. 13 Mar. 2009
    http://www.nti.org/db/nisprofs/over/modern.htm