Critical Issues Forum 2009 Benchmark I Zelenogorsk

Critical Issues Forum 2008-2009

Nuclear Disarmament: Challenges, Opportunities, and Next Steps

Benchmark I

The Author: Boris Samoilenko
Form 11B
Linguistic Gymnasia № 164

The Advisor: Nelli Porseva
The Teacher of English
Linguistic Gymnasia № 164

Zelenogorsk

Krasnoyarsk Region

Russia

2009

Contents

Introduction 2

History of Nuclear Weapons 2

1. The Nuclear Age and the Cold War 2

2. Nuclear Worldwide Proliferation and “Nuclear Club” 3

3. Nuclear Nonproliferation 5

4. Conclusion. Nuclear Weapons Statistics Nowadays. 7

Nuclear Weapons in Technical View 7

1. Definition and Classification 7

2. Nuclear Materials 8

3. Nuclear Fuel Cycle and Involved Technologies 9

4. Effects of Nuclear Application and Testing 10

5. Conclusion. What is Needed to Create Nuclear Weapons? 13

Motivations of Nuclear Weapons Acquiring 13

1. Old Motivations (Cold War) 13

2. Possible New Motivations (Modern World) 14

3. Conclusion. Chain-reaction Motivations. 15

Sources 16

Introduction

Our objectives were to:

1. Demonstrate an understanding of nuclear weapons in the world today.

2. Demonstrate an understanding of the processes involved in the production of nuclear weapons in countries around the world.

3. Demonstrate an understanding of the reasons/motivations behind efforts of various countries to acquire nuclear weapons.

History of Nuclear Weapons

1. The Nuclear Age and the Cold War

The idea of creation the first atomic bomb appeared in 1939 in the USA, Great Britain and Germany when World War II started (1 p. 53). The first atomic bomb appeared in the USA as the result of top-secret “Manhattan Project” led by J. Robert Oppenheimer. On 16^th of July, 1945 nuclear weapons were first tested in Los Alamos, New Mexico and later used in Hiroshima and Nagasaki by the USA. It was the beginning of nuclear age.

On 24^th of July, 1945 on the Potsdam conference of anti-Hitler coalition the US President Harry Truman talked to the Soviet premier Joseph Stalin about some “weapon of extraordinary destructive power” which the USA had. Stalin understood that Truman mentioned the atomic bomb and after that he ordered Igor Kurchatov, who was the lead physicist of Soviet Atomic Project, to accelerate making of the soviet atomic bomb. That was the first step to the arms race and one of the reasons of the Cold War (2 pp. 25-28).

On 15^th of November, 1945, the USA, Great Britain and Canada agreed to create a declaration of creating the United Nations Atomic Energy Commission (AEC). The first resolution was accepted on 24^th of January, 1946. The main aim of this resolution was to eliminate the use of atomic energy for destructive purposes and promote its peaceful usage (1 p. 62). But AEC didn’t work for a long time. On the first session of AEC in June, 1946 the US representative Bernard Baruch came out with a radical offer, this was later called “Baruch Plan”. According to it the USA refused its nuclear monopoly and created new international body, which would be able to punish (bypassing UN) countries, which were going to create nuclear weapons. In fact, the U.S.A. would be able to be the only country with nuclear weapons. Of course, the Soviet Union used its veto right during the discussion of this offer. It’s interesting to note, that the Soviet Union also had its own resolution project for AEC about nuclear arms control. It had no effect either. There is such a point of view if it had happened year later, it could have influenced nuclear policy all over the world. In fact both the Soviet Union and the USA perceived threats to their safety and freedom in the opponent’s antinuclear project. It caused insoluble contradictions. On 29^th of August, 1949, the USSR tested their first atomic bomb “Joe-1” near Semipalatinsk. AEC turned to be useless and it disappeared as a “victim of arms race” (2 pp. 51, 55, 58), (3).

That was the end of the U.S. nuclear monopoly and the beginning of the nuclear proliferation.

2. Nuclear Worldwide Proliferation and “Nuclear Club”

In 1950-1960s all the world was consumed with a nuclear mania. Reflexions on this topic weren’t developed as wide as it is in the modern world. Soviet marshal Ogarkov N.V. wrote that firstly in 1950-1960s there was a little amount of nuclear weapons worldwide and it was considered as a way of military forces’ power increasing only (4 pp. 84-85).

Nuclear mania was spreading very actively. There are some examples of true nuclear interests worldwide:

· After 1954 the USA was helping Great Britain in modernization of atomic potential (4 p. 85).

· 1955-1958. The Soviet Union signed a treaty with China about cooperation in nuclear production. But in 1959 this treaty was canceled. In August, 1960 all the soviet specialists were recalled from China. In 1964 the first bomb was tested in China. During its making 26 departments, 900 institutes of higher education and plants were participating in this project (4 p. 85), (2 p. 133).

· Since the end of 1950s France was helping Israel with building industrial heavy-water (D2O) reactor. Norway was supplying Israel with heavy water (4 p. 86).

· In 1957-1958 France, Germany and Italy were trying to create “nuclear strategic association”. In fact, these countries wanted to build uranium isotope separation plant in Pierlat which would cost $140 million. But in June, 1958 France limited this treaty to conventional weapons (4 pp. 86-87), (2 pp. 137-138).

· Also many other countries had their own nuclear programs or even had nuclear interests during this time: Argentina, Sweden, Switzerland, India, South Africa, Yugoslavia, Brazil, South Korea, Pakistan, North Korea, Taiwan, Iran, and Iraq. Japan and Australia also had nuclear interests, but they didn’t develop their nuclear programs (2 pp. 137-160), (4 pp. 85-90).

Such active wide spreading of nuclear technologies led to appearance of the first 5 nuclear powers that successfully detonated atomic bombs: the USA, the USSR, Great Britain, France and China. Since then these countries have been known as members of the “Nuclear Club” or nuclear weapons states (NWS). Israel (most likely), India, Pakistan and North Korea became nuclear states after Treaty of the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons (NPT) had entered in force in 1970(5).

The timeline chart below shows the main tests while the states mentioned above started pursuing the nuclear status up to now.

Image 1. States of “Nuclear Club” and their nuclear tests. Graphical timeline. (4 p. 39), (5), (6), (7), (8), (9), (10).Made by B.Samoilenko.

Another interesting fact is that all most powerful nuclear tests were done by the USA and the USSR before NPT (see Table 1).

Table 1. List of most powerful nuclear tests(8).

Date	Yield	Test mode	Country	Test Site	Project Name
30 October 1961	50 Mt	air-drop	Soviet Union	Novaya Zemlya	Tsar Bomba
24 December 1962	24.2 Mt	air-drop	Soviet Union	Novaya Zemlya
5 August 1961	21.1 Mt	air-drop	Soviet Union	Novaya Zemlya
5 September 1962	21.1 Mt	air-drop	Soviet Union	Novaya Zemlya
28 February 1954	15 Mt	ground	USA	Bikini Atoll	Castle Bravo
5 May 1954	13.5 Mt	sea surface	USA	Bikini Atoll	Castle Yankee
23 October 1961	12.5 Mt	air-drop	Soviet Union	Novaya Zemlya
26 March 1954	11 Mt	sea surface	USA	Bikini Atoll	Castle Romeo
1 November 1952	10.4 Mt	ground	USA	Eniwetok	Ivy Mike

27 September 1962	10 Mt	air-drop	Soviet Union	Novaya Zemlya

According to the diagram below, the ascension of the number of nuclear tests was exactly at 1950-1960ss period. It proves nuclear popularity among different states one more time.

Diagram 1. Worldwide nuclear testing, 1945-1998. Downloaded from [http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:Worldwide_nuclear_testing.svg].

Of course, all these facts weren’t ignored by community. Some of countries had disputes about getting or not getting nuclear weapons. In many European countries antinuclear movements appeared. In December, 1961 UN General Assembly accepted a resolution for international nuclear consensus achievement. And only after discussions in 1966 NPT was accepted in 1968 (4 p. 92).

3. Nuclear Nonproliferation

At the end of 1950s – beginning of 1960s humanity firstly considered nuclear war preventing, otherwise human immortality as a kind becomes under threat of total extermination. And perception of it made our society to take a step to nuclear non-proliferation policy.

On 26^th of October, 1956 International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) was created. The aim of it was to promote peaceful usage of atomic energy. It is still functional.

Accepting NPT was the first really effective step to nuclear non-proliferation. NPT was opened for signing on 1^st of July, 1968 by UN General Assembly and entered the force on 5^th of March, 1970. NPT became termless on 11^th of May 1995 (4 p. 486).

According to NPT all the nuclear powers were engaged to complete nuclear disarmament. In fact, it wasn’t so, especially because of the Cold War political conditions. Also, disarmament process is rather expensive and long.

The paradox is after accepting NPT nuclear arsenals were still growing, especially in the Soviet Union. The reason was again the Cold War, arms race between the Soviet Union and the USA. Unofficially, NPT’s aim was even to limit the possibility of nuclear war start between nuclear powers, especially the USA and the USSR during the Cold War. None of the states wanted to abandon nuclear weapons – one of the most powerful factors of deterrence. That’s why all the attention was paid to maintenance of peace and NPT couldn’t be effective in its official aim realization (4 p. 33). See Diagram 2.

Diagram 2. Nuclear Warhead Stockpiles in nuclear powers.

Made by B. Samoilenko based on data from (11).

But 1990s situation changed very much. After the Cold War was finished and the Soviet Union came apart, both Russia (as a successor of USSR) and the USA took far more active participation in nuclear disarmament. When active threat of nuclear war disappeared, nonproliferation policy can develop. There are 189 states-parties of the NPT nowadays. The NPT is reviewed every 5 years. The last review was in May, 2005 in New York (4 p. 34), (12), (13).

Image 2. NPT Participation as of July 2008. Downloaded from [http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:NPT_Participation.svg].

██ Signed and ratified ██ Acceded or succeeded ██ Abiding by treaty though outside
██ Withdrawn ██ Non-signatory

4. Conclusion. Nuclear Weapons Statistics Nowadays.

There are 26854 of nuclear weapons nowadays with 5000 megatons of total yield. 96% of nuclear weapons are owned by the USA and the Russian Federation. Also Great Britain, France, China, India, Pakistan and Israel (it’s not officially confirmed) have their own nuclear weapons. Totally there have been more than 2000 nuclear tests worldwide. On the Image 3 you can see nuclear sites worldwide (7), (11), (13).

Image 3. Map of nuclear weapons testing and application worldwide since 1945. Downloaded from [http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:Nuclear_use_locations_world_map.PNG].

$F:\MONTEREY\CIF\Sources\Nuclear_use_locations_world_map.png$

Nuclear Weapons in Technical View

1. Definition and Classification

For clear understating of nuclear weapons and their position in the world it’s important to start with a simple definition of it.

Nuclear weapons are kind of weapons of mass destruction (WMD). Chemical, biological, radiological weapons are also related to WMD.

Nuclear weapons are nuclear devices with unregulated discharge of energy during fusion and fission reactions of special materials created for military purposes. “Nuclear weapons” is a complex definition of nuclear ammunition, delivery systems and control aids (4 p. 18).

All the nuclear weapons can be divided into the following groups:

By type of nuclear charge:
	Atomic bombs (A-bombs)
	Principle is founded on fission reaction. “Fission reaction - is the he process whereby the nucleus of a particular heavy element splits into (generally) two nuclei of lighter elements, with the release of substantial amounts of energy” (14). Image 4. The First Soviet Atomic Bomb RDS-1 “Joe-1”. Downloaded from [http://www.quarta-rad.ru/img/9j13dLdCsfv9b74.jpg]
	Thermonuclear or Hydrogen bombs (H-bombs)
	Principle is founded on fusion reaction. “Nuclear fusion is a process during which light atoms fuse to form heavier ones. During the fusion of elements with low atomic numbers substantial amounts of energy are released”(15). Image 5. “Tsar Bomba” the most powerful bomb ever detonated. Downloaded from [http://images.nature.web.ru/nature/2001/11/03/0001173455/hbomb.jpg]
	Neutron bombs
	It’s a specialized thermonuclear weapon referred to as an enhanced radiation weapon (ERW). It produces a relatively small explosion, but large amount of neutron radiation. It maximizes damage to biological object but other non-organic objects, like buildings, etc. are usually have minimal damages (16), (17).
By the purpose of using:
	Strategic nuclear weapons
	This type of nuclear weapons is usually applied on strategic plan targets in the far rears of enemy (18): · Missile locations; · Military command centers; · Large cities.
	Tactical nuclear weapons (TNW)
	It’s usually applied for enemy’s powers liquidation on the battle-front and in the nearest rears. This would include (19): · “Against a large ground force; · Against a fortified underground bunker; · Against remote and/or heavily-defended target locations difficult or impossible; to reach with conventional weapons; · Against a carrier battle group or any collection of surface vessels; · Against a large amphibious invasion force; · Against a 100+ vehicle supply convoy; · Against a squadron of strategic bombers.” It can be used as a part of strategic nuclear weapons also.

2. Nuclear Materials

Nuclear weapons work is based on chain-reactions with nuclear materials. Energy, which is produced during these processes, is called nuclear energy.

All the nuclear materials can be divided into 3 groups(20):

· Fissile materials.
These materials consist of atoms which can be split by neutrons (plutonium-239, uranium-235).

· Fussionable materials.
These materials consist of atoms which can be fused and release energy (deuterium, tritium).

· Source materials.
These materials are used to boost nuclear weapons by providing a source of extra atomic particles for fission (tritium, polonium, beryllium, lithium-6, helium-3).

During 15 billion years of universe existence many of radioactive nucleuses, which appeared when universe was forming, have nearly decayed, including isotopes of the elements situated after U in the Periodical Table. Half-life is a period of time when half of the initial amount of nucleuses are decayed. Different materials have different half-life. The more half-life is, the greater is its amount in nature. Other nuclear materials can be got artificially only(4 p. 41).

Table 2. Half-life of some isotopes. Based on (4 p. 42).

Isotope	Half-life (years)	Isotope	Half-life (years)
Th-232	14 000 000 000	Pu-239	24 100
U-238	4 460 000 000	Pu-240	6 500
U-235	704 000 000	Pu-238	88
Pu-244	81 000 000	Pu-241	14
Pu-242	376 000	H-3 (tritium)	12
U-234	245 000

Uranium (U) is one of the most useful nuclear materials for producing nuclear weapons. can be found in nature as a mixture of 3 isotopes: U-238 (99,276%), U-235 (0,718%) and U-234 (0,0056%). Self-sustaining reaction is possible with U-235 only. More accessible U-238 is usually used as a breeder material. There are other breeder materials, such as Th-232 and Pu-240. Relation is “enrichment” of uranium. The more U enriched, the more useful it is for nuclear weapons producing. To make a bomb without Pu about 15-20 kgs of HEU needed. (4 p. 46), (20).

Table 3. Degrees of uranium enrichment. Based on (4 p. 46), (14).

Depauperated Uranium	Low Enriched Uranium (LEU)	High Enriched Uranium (HEU)	HEU needed to create A-bomb
< 0,7%	3-5%	20%	80-93% >

Plutonium (Pu) is another useful nuclear material. Specifically, Pu-239. It has very short half-life, that’s why it can be produced by neutron irradiation of U-238. Nuclear weapons require 3-5 kgs of Pu. Pu is extremely dangerous and toxic. Alpha particles, which are emitted by can cause very high rate cell damage. “It is possible, for example, to contract lung cancer from one millionth of a gram” (Citation (14)) (4 pp. 46-47), (14).

3. Nuclear Fuel Cycle and Involved Technologies

This part of work is based on (4 pp. 49-60) and (21 pp. 90-93)

Nuclear fuel cycle – is a complex of processes of producing, using and processing of nuclear fuel. These are primary studies of nuclear fuel cycle:

Sheme 1. Nuclear fuel cycle. Made by B.Samoilenko Made by B.Samoilenko based on data from (4 p. 49), (21 p. 90), (22).

Reactor is loaded by relatively low amount of nuclear fuel. But to produce, for example 1 m³ of uranium fuel, it’s needed 3750 m³ of ore to mine. So, nuclear fuel cycle requires a lot of materials circulation. Sites of concentrated U producing are maximally close to mining sites.

After the first stage unconcentrated product can be processed to uranium reactor’s fuel (heavy-water reactors), transformed into uranium hexafluoride for further enrichment, or used for Pu-239 producing (as it was in NWS, especially before 1990) in military purposes.

There several methods for U enrichment: gas diffusion, rotary, aerodynamic, laser, chemical and electromagnetic methods.

Gas diffusion was one of the oldest ways. The principle of it as follows: uranium hexafluoride while transforming into gas state in 56°C (132,8°F) temperature is passed through porous membrane. The more membranes - the more enrichment. This method uses a lot of electric power.

Another one, rotary technology provides rotating of uranium hexafluoride in vertical centrifuge. 40-50 thousand turns in a minute speed allows molecules with U-235 atoms concentrate closer to pintle. Advantages are far low amounts of energy usage comparatively to gas diffusion and reduction of repeating operations needed to achieve required level of enrichment. The disadvantage is limited production volume on concrete plant.

These two and other methods help to get HEU and potentially nuclear weapons. Another way to the nuclear weapons is connected with getting plutonium from irradiated nuclear fuel processing. With the help of it fissionable materials can be extracted. There are:

· 943 kgs of U-238;

· 8 kgs of U-235;

· 8,9 kgs of Pu isotopes

in 1 ton from irradiated nuclear fuel.

It’s possible to create nuclear weapons from special military reactors, but it also can be created from plutonium produced in peaceful reactors.

The main part of the nuclear fuel cycle is nuclear reactor. It helps to support chain reactions for producing energy. Different reactors can be classified by:

· Type of heat-transfer material and decelerator (it’s used to reduce critical mass);

· Aggregative state of water heat-transfer material;

· Element, where heat-transfer material’s pressure is created;

· Number of cooling contours;

· Structure and form of active zone (where reaction takes place);

· Movement abilities (stationary, transport, transportable);

· Purpose of usage (transport reactors, military reactors for Pu production, APP reactors, research reactors).

Table 4. Characteristics of the most widespread reactors. Based on (4 p. 57).

Type of reactor	Fuel	Decelerator	Heat-transfer material
CANDU	natural uranium	heavy water	heavy water under pressure
“Magnox”	natural uranium	graphite	carbonic acid
AGR	LEU	graphite	carbonic acid
LWGR	LEU	graphite	boiling water
Light-water reactor/LWR	LEU	water	water under pressure
BWR	LEU	water	boiling water
Fast breeder reactor (FBR)	enriched uranium or plutonium	-	natrium

There were 438 working and 33 building reactors in the world at the end of 2000.

4. Effects of Nuclear Application and Testing

This part of work is based on (23), (24) and (25).

Effects of nuclear explosion – it’s what makes nuclear weapons things which are worth scaring of. Effects are directly connected to the damaging factors of nuclear weapons.

Depending on yield of charge and conditions of explosion, damaging factors of nuclear explosion can be divided in following way:

Diagram 3. Damaging factors of nuclear explosion.
Made by B.Samoilenko based on data from (24).

Blast creates most of destructions. Release of energy is very fast, so it creates a very powerful wave of overpressure, which is equivalent to thousand pounds per square inch (psi) and moves with 350 mps speed . In comparison with the fact that brick houses are destroyed at 10-15 psi overpressure, human lungs are crushed at ≈30 psi, and 15-20 psi winds can fling a person at several hundred kmh, real power of nuclear explosion blast becomes really enormous and incredibly destructive.

Fireball is a stream of radiant energy, which includes ultraviolet, IR and visible spectral regions. Source of it is glowing region of explosion – heated in very high temperatures and evaporated parts of bomb, surrounding ground and air. Maximal temperature of glowing region is usually 5700-7700°С (≈10290-13890°F). When temperature is lowered to 1700°С (3092°F) light disappears. Explosion light intensity is more than 7000 times more than maximal sunlight intensity. The effect of fireball are ignition, burning-off, carbonization of objects and defeating of eyes, scorches of opened (and covered with dress sometimes) parts of body.

Image 6. Atomic Bomb Damage of Nagasaki. Image and table are downloaded from [http://www.atomicarchive.com/Maps/NagasakiMap.shtml]

Nagasaki Damage Map

Distance from Ground Zero (km)	Killed	Injured	Population
0 - 1.0	88%	6%	30,900
1.0 - 2.5	34%	29%	27,700
2.5 - 5.0	11%	10%	115,200
Total	22%	12%	173,800

Image 7. Atomic Bomb Damage of Hiroshima. Image and table are downloaded from [http://www.atomicarchive.com/Maps/HiroshimaMap.shtml]

Hiroshima Damage Map

Distance from Ground Zero (km)	Killed	Injured	Population
0 -1.0	86%	10%	31,200
1.0 - 2.5	27%	37%	144,800
2.5 - 5.0	2%	25%	80,300
Total	27%	30%	256,300

Initial nuclear radiation is gamma rays and neutron stream, which are emitted from zone of nuclear explosion during some seconds. Defeating radius is less than radius of blast and fireballs, but weapons (neutron bomb, for example) can be constructed in the way of maximizing damage to organisms. Penetrating radiation can call both reversible and irreversible changes in materials, electronic, optical and other devices due to destruction of lattice and other physicochemical processes. A 400 rads radiation dose will kill 50% of exposed population. These deaths occur within about 6 - 7 weeks.

Electromagnetic pulse is a variable electrical field, which doesn’t harm people, but damages electric devices and power lines. Besides it, large amount of ions, emitted by explosions, prevents radio-waves spread.

Radioactive contamination is a result of radioactive substances fallout during nuclear explosion. Accumulating the ground and moving in the direction of radioactive cloud, explosion products create radioactive region. Radioactive products emit 3 kinds of radiation: alpha, beta and gamma. The effects of fallout persist for a very long time. The relative risk reduces over time. Animal’s and people defeat can be called by inner and outer irradiation. In bad case, this irradiation can call radiation sickness and call a lethal outcome.

Image 8. Trinity Test Fallout Pattern. Map and explanation are downloaded from [http://www.atomicarchive.com/Maps/TrinityMap.shtml].
		“The fireball created by the explosion touched the ground and vaporized large amounts of soil. These relatively heavy particles, highly radioactive, fell out of the cloud quickly, causing a fair amount of local fallout. Delayed or long-distance fallout was relatively small, though it was high enough to cause defects to appear on film as far away as New York.”
Image 9. BRAVO Test Fallout Pattern. Map and explanation are downloaded from [http://www.atomicarchive.com/Maps/BravoMap.shtml].

“There were totally 236 people living pm the atolls of Rogelap and Utirik. Relatively 100-300 miles from Bikini atoll, where the Bravo test took place. People, who were living on atolls were evacuated, but 24-48 hours after the explosion. After their evacuation, many of the typical symptoms of radiation poisoning; burning of the mouth and eyes, nausea, diarrhea, loss of hair, and skin burns appeared. Ten years after the blast the first thyroid tumors began to appear. Of those under twelve on Rongelap at the time of BRAVO, 90% have developed thyroid tumors.”
Image 10. Lop Nur Test Fallout Pattern. Map and explanation are downloaded from [http://www.atomicarchive.com/Maps/LopNorMap.shtml].
	“Daily observations of the cloud of radioactive dust particles after a Chinese test at Lop Nur on May 9, 1966. The cloud moved about 1,400 miles per day.”

5. Conclusion. What is needed to create nuclear weapons?

Creating a bomb is a very expensive process. To be a success you need (4 p. 38), (26 p. 15):

· Rich financial resources («Manhattan Project» officially costed $2 billion – like $16 billion nowadays) in spite of reduction of prices of technologies;

· Nuclear materials (the most expensive part n the way to nuclear weapons, more than 80% of the USA expenses were connected with getting fissionable materials during the first bomb building) and nuclear enrichment facilities;

· Bomb design;

· Great labor resources: physicists and engineers. According to expert estimates, there 1300 engineers and 500 scientists (including ≈120 atomic scientists);

· Test site (and it also needs to be carefully prepared);

· Delivery systems.

So, it’s really difficult to create nuclear weapons. And why do (did) states want to get it?

Motivations of Nuclear Weapons Acquiring

1. Old Motivations (Cold War)

History remembers a lot of examples of acquiring nuclear bombs on the same reasons. Historically, most of nuclear states were interested in nuclear weapons because they were feared by possibility of attacks from other states. “Nuclear forces played a central role in the security policies of both the US and SU” (1 pp. 28-29). According to data from (26 p. 17) the most popular reasons of getting nuclear weapons were connected with deterrence, fear of neighbors and nuclear states. Less popular motivation, but also important – is prestige. If state gets nuclear weapons it means that it has enough finances and resources.

The USA first created atomic bomb to defeat Hitler and Japan. Further nuclear arsenals’ increasing was connected with US deterrence. The last motivation became rather popular in France, Great Britain and China.

The USSR in-turn created their bomb because it was a question of prestige and superiority. Further it became a real rivalry with the USA and deterring it. So, it became a mutual rivalry and deterrence at the same time. Of course this closed race cycle generated more and more fear of potential enemy (rival).

Also nuclear weapons give its’ owner a great potential strength, which make other states consider nuclear weapons owners… or create its’ own nuclear weapons to have enough protection or not to be behind nuclear powers.

Diagram 4. Approximate balance of motivations of nuclear weapons acquiring during the Cold War. Based on (26 p. 17).

2. Possible New Motivations (Modern World)

But the Cold War finished and nonproliferation and nuclear control policy began developing very actively. It means that fearing and deterring of other countries became less popular (but these motivations haven’t disappeared) as a real motivation. Russia and the USA, who are the owners of the most part of world nuclear arsenals, have no reasons now to deter or compete with each other because it senseless in current political situation. But deterrence can be a real motivation for smaller countries. It is concern of states, which are situated nearly to each other, especially if even one state has nuclear weapons. It is a situation of India, Israel and Pakistan. Israel mentions surrounding Arab countries speaking about outer threat. India and Pakistan are also rivals in nuclear weapons creation. It will be recalled that Pakistan’s main incentive for nuclear testing was the fact of nuclear tests in India. They had the same number of tests as India had (1 p. 31).

Example of India and Pakistan is a useful illustration of what can be a real reason of potential nuclear states in worldwide politically stable situation. But there is another danger appeared: possibility of trade deal with nuclear weapons participation. This also can be a real incentive for nuclear weapons creation. Nuclear weapons is what terrorists can be very interested in. And including fact of very high cost of nuclear weapons, selling nuclear weapons can be rather profitable. There are no official examples of it. But the fact of all the states with nuclear weapons are conspicuous actors on the nuclear stage can prevent nuclear bargaining or make it less noticeable, without official confirmation.

When some states have nuclear weapons and some – not, it creates inequality of potential military forces between them. This fact always can be official excuse for nuclear weapons acquiring in context of protection non-nuclear states from nuclear ones. If politics of nuclear states becomes more aggressive in relation to non-nuclear countries, incentive for military (nuclear, especially) forces increasing can become necessary in their view. This is an example of North Korea nuclear program, which developed when political pressure of the USA on them was rather high (27).

Diagram 5. Approximate estimate of motivations of nuclear weapons acquiring nowadays (by B.Samoilenko).

3. Conclusion. Chain-reaction Motivations.

Reasons and motivations of nuclear weapons acquiring are connected very much.

Very simplified model of it can look like following:

When the state A produces nuclear weapons, it creates misbalance with other countries. Then state B produces nuclear weapons not to be behind state A (rivalry) in technical progress. This motivation is strongly connected with question of prestige and principal. Then state C creates nuclear weapons in fear of being attacked by states A and B. This motivation is connected both with self-protection and deterrence of other nuclear states. After that non-nuclear state D wants to create its’ own nuclear program, but nuclear state A (because of different reasons, but still having its’ own nuclear weapons, what’s important) insists on state D’s nuclear program aborting. State D understands it as an aggressive political pressure and distrust and speeds up its’ program in aim of protection.

Image 11. Illustration of nuclear motivations. By B.Samoilenko.

This chain can be infinite. Realized motivated expectancies of some countries in nuclear weapons acquiring can motivate other states to do it.

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