Critical Issues Forum 2009 – 2010
"Nuclear Nonproliferation: Global Opportunities and
Regional Challenges"

Benchmarks and Learning Objectives

Introduction:

In April 2009 US President Obama gave a powerful speech in Prague, The Czech Republic. In his speech he supported nuclear nonproliferation and disarmament. President Obama stated America’s goal for a world without nuclear weapons. In 2010 countries will review the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT). At the Review Conference they will have an excellent chance to make progress toward President Obama’s goal.

In the past ten years there have been both successes and failures in nuclear nonproliferation and disarmament. The 2005 NPT Review Conference was very disappointing. As a result, there has been growing concern about the future of the NPT regime. The 2005 Review Conference finished without any agreement. This did not mean the Treaty was dead. However, if the 2010 Review Conference also fails, there might be more serious consequences. The NPT currently faces unprecedented challenges.

There are positive signs. Four days before President Obama’s speech in April, Obama and Russian President Dmitry Medvedev met. Together they expressed their goal of achieving a world free of nuclear weapons. With this goal in mind, in July 2009 the United States and Russia agreed to negotiate a new treaty limiting the numbers of nuclear weapons each country will possess. This treaty will replace the START treaty that will expire in December 2009. The new treaty will be comprehensive and legally binding. The agreement will reduce the two countries’ nuclear arsenals. The promises made by both leaders lifted hopes for eventual nuclear disarmament. President Obama has also pledged to work hard to get the Comprehensive Nuclear Test-Ban Treaty (CTBT) ratified. At the 2009 Preparatory Committee (PrepCom) meeting for the 2010 NPT Review Conference in May 2009, there was a hopeful and positive atmosphere. In addition, after 10 years of no movement, the Conference on Disarmament in Geneva finally came up with its program of work. There is new recognition for the importance of Nuclear Weapon Free Zones. These zones are for both global and regional disarmament. One new zone, the Central Asia Nuclear Weapon Free Zone, entered into force in March 2009. The Pelindaba Treaty creating the African Nuclear Weapon Free Zone entered into force in April.

However, there are also nuclear weapons challenges in Northeast Asia, the Middle East, and South Asia. These challenges make it difficult for efforts to control the spread of nuclear weapons. One of the biggest challenges is in Northeast Asia. North Korea withdrew from the NPT in 2003. They tested nuclear weapons in October 2006 and May 2009. In the Middle East, Iran continues to enrich uranium in spite of UN Security Council Resolutions. Iran has very unclear intentions. They refuse to obey the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) and Security Council resolutions. These actions lead many to believe that Iran may be developing nuclear weapons. Also many believe that in the Middle East Israel possesses nuclear weapons. In South Asia, other nuclear-armed states—India and Pakistan—have not joined the NPT, but are commonly considered as de facto nuclear weapon states.

With these positive and negative signs in mind, the 2010 Review Conference will be held at a very important time in NPT history. There will need to be efforts to address the regional tensions in order to achieve the goals of nuclear nonproliferation and disarmament. Regional security will be important to whether countries will be able to produce a successful outcome at the 2010 Review Conference.

This year’s CIF Student Conference will happen in April 2010. The 2010 NPT Review Conference will be held in May. In the 2009-2010 Critical Issues Forum, US and Russian students will study how much progress the world has made toward nuclear nonproliferation and disarmament. They will look at both the positive and negative signs. They will study how regional security issues play a big role in the outcome of the 2010 Review Conference. They will also try to see how far the world is likely to go with nuclear nonproliferation and disarmament.

Benchmark I: Nuclear Weapons and Their Control

In Benchmark I you will examine two objectives from the point of view of the scientific & environmental; social & cultural; economic; political & geopolitical domains. Your task is to clearly demonstrate, in a carefully constructed project, a comprehensive understanding of nuclear weapons in the world today. You will learn about who has nuclear weapons, how many there are, and other information that will aid you in understanding these weapons. In addition, you will gain knowledge of past, present, and future ways to control these weapons, including multilateral, regional, and bilateral agreements as well as unilateral measures. You will learn about the treaties that countries have negotiated to control these weapons. The project must be your own work, with clear and correct citations for any work you borrow from others. All work not your own, including photos, graphics, multimedia, charts, and graphs must be credited within your text and in a bibliography.

Objectives

One: The first objective is to be able to describe what nuclear weapons are and identify who has, or wants to acquire them. This knowledge will help you explain what proliferation is. In this objective you will also explore the history of decisions that these weapons need to be controlled and why.

Two: The second objective is to be able to summarize the agreements, treaties, organizations, and other mechanisms that have been used to control nuclear weapons. This will help you to be able to explain how these mechanisms are used, monitored and verified.

Suggested Areas for Research

In order to understand and write about the objectives, you will want to do research in the following areas. Note that these are suggested areas of research. These are NOT your tasks. You may choose to look at any, all, or none of these areas. The information you gain from doing research in these areas will help you to construct your project. Your only task is to create a project that shows you understand the two objectives.

a. Definitions of words related to nuclear proliferation

b. The countries that have, are developing, and are suspected of developing nuclear weapons

c. The scientific and technical hurdles needed to create nuclear weapons

d. The motivations for nuclear proliferation

e. Early efforts at nuclear nonproliferation

f. The NPT

i. Objectives and key provisions

ii. Verification and enforcement (IAEA safeguards and the UN Security Council Resolutions)

iii. Membership and growth

iv. Reasons why some countries are not part of the NPT

v. Review Conferences

1. Which conferences succeeded and why.

2. Which did not succeed and why.

g. CTBT (current status, prospects)

h. Fissile Material Cut-Off Treaty (FMCT) (current status, prospects)

i. Nuclear Weapon Free Zones

j. Bilateral arms control (START)

k. Other nonproliferation measures such as export controls, and Proliferation Security Initiatives (PSI)

l. UN Security Council Resolution 1540

Benchmark II Opportunities and Challenges for Nuclear Nonproliferation

In Benchmark II you will apply what you have already learned and will examine the objectives form the point of view of the scientific & environmental; social & cultural; economic; political & geopolitical domains. Your task is to clearly demonstrate, in a carefully constructed project, a comprehensive understanding of the positive opportunities toward the control of nuclear weapons in the world today. You will learn in which countries, and in which regions there are challenges regarding nuclear weapons proliferation. The project must be your own work, with clear and correct citations for any work you borrow from others. All work not your own, including photos, graphics, multimedia, charts, and graphs must be credited within your text and in a bibliography.

Objectives

One: The first objective is to be able to explain the ideas, initiatives, and proposed agreements being discussed in international negotiations on nonproliferation and disarmament.

Two: The second objective is to be able to explain the regional tensions and conflicts that have led to the proliferation of nuclear weapons and which could obstruct initiatives for nonproliferation and disarmament.

Suggested Areas for Research

In order to understand and write about the objectives, you will want to do research in the following areas. Note that these are suggested areas of research. These are NOT your tasks. You may choose to look at any, all, or none of these areas. The information you gain from doing research in these areas will help you to construct your project. Your only task is to create a project that shows you understand the two objectives.

a. Opportunities

i. New US administration

1. Obama Prague Speech

2. UN Security Council Resolution 1887

ii. The “Reboot” of US-Russian relations

iii. Initiatives for nuclear disarmament

b. Challenges

i. Proliferation programs

1. Iran

2. North Korea

ii. Regional conflict and tension involving nuclear states

1. South Asia

2. Middle East

3. Northeast Asia

Benchmark III: Looking Ahead to the Future of Nonproliferation and Disarmament

In Benchmarks I and II, using the CIF domains (scientific & environmental, social & cultural, economic, political & geopolitical) you gained an understanding of nuclear weapons in the world today. You also gained a comprehensive understanding of efforts to reduce the threat of nuclear weapons. Finally, you learned about the today’s opportunities for, and challenges to, nonproliferation and disarmament.

For Benchmark III you will synthesize and evaluate the information you have already gained. In addition you will do further research to create your own interpretations about world events and concerns. From your research you will make judgments and support those judgments with the knowledge you have gained. Your task is to clearly demonstrate, in a carefully constructed project, a comprehensive understanding of how the positive opportunities and regional challenges regarding nuclear weapons proliferation will affect the prospects for nonproliferation and disarmament in the world today.

Your project will address this topic through as many of the CIF domains as possible. (NOTE: It is conceivable that some of the domains will not fit your work.)

The project must be your own work, with clear and correct citations for any work you borrow from others. All work not your own, including photos, graphics, multimedia, charts, and graphs must be credited within your text and in a bibliography.

Objectives

One: The first objective is to describe the specific steps toward nonproliferation and disarmament that participants in the 2010 Review Conference of the Nuclear Non- Proliferation Treaty could take and explain what could make them more likely to agree, or more likely to disagree, on those steps.

Two: The second objective is, based on your research, to predict whether the participants at the 2010 NPT Review Conference are likely to agree on new measures for nuclear nonproliferation and disarmament and be able to defend your prediction.

Suggested Areas for Research

In order to understand and write about the objectives, you will want to do research in the following areas. Note that these are suggested areas of research. These are NOT your tasks. You may choose to look at any, all, or none of these areas. The information you gain from doing research in these areas will help you to construct your project. Your only task is to create a project that shows you understand the two objectives.

1. The 2010 NPT Review Conference

a. Conference organization

i. Who the President will be and who will chair each Main Committee.

ii. What they will discuss.

iii. Who the major players will be.

1. Nuclear Weapons States (NWS)

2. Non-Nuclear Weapons States (NNWS)

3. The Non-Aligned Movement (NAM) and other regional
groupings

4. The New Agenda Coalition (NAC)

b. What the parties at the conference will try to achieve.

c. What could make it easier or harder to reach agreement.

d. What can be done to increase the likelihood of agreement.

e. What could happen if they fail to agree.

2. Beyond the 2010 NPT Review Conference

a. Whether the NPT will become stronger or weaker.

b. Whether other nonproliferation and disarmament agreements currently
under discussion will come into force.

i. CTBT

ii. FMCT

iii. Zone Free of Weapons of Mass Destruction in the Middle East

iv. Future agreements between the U.S. and Russia to reduce nuclear weapons

c. Whether a Nuclear Weapons Convention should be negotiated to ban all nuclear weapons forever.

d. What other efforts can and should be done to promote nuclear nonproliferation and/or disarmament.

http://www.criticalissuesforum.org/bmks10.html
updated 18 November 2009